北极放大反馈机理研究进展及未来“新北极”背景下中-高纬度耦合反馈机理展望

近年来全球变暖加剧,北极海冰快速融化,北极近地面增温速率是全球平均的2~4倍,即北极放大效应。北极放大不仅影响北极地区的气候与生态环境,还会造成极外地区的极端天气气候事件频发。北极放大的形成需要有使北极增温的正反馈过程持续作用,目前被广泛接受的正反馈机理包括冰雪反照率反馈、温度反馈(包含普朗克反馈和温度直减率反馈)、水汽和云反馈等。但这些基于辐射平衡的热力正反馈过程仅能贡献北极放大约1.4~2.3倍的增暖速率,远远低于当前近4倍的北极放大率。在包含了上述多种正反馈机制共同作用的最新CMIP6耦合模式的模拟中,依然普遍低估了北极放大率和海冰融化速率,特别是21世纪初北极逐渐进入海冰加速减退、海冰流动性加快的“新北极”气候态,北极放大率从之前的高估转为明显低估,意味着海冰融化的动力作用在增强。基于中纬度海洋和大气向极热输送的动力作用分析,本文提出了一种有利于加速北极放大的中纬度-北极之间动力-热力耦合反馈机理的科学猜想。

中高纬度与热带大气的共同作用对江南4-6月低频降水的影响

基于中国国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料、NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)提供的逐日向外长波辐射资料和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)逐日全球再分析资料,采用非滤波法提取10—30 d低频降水及低频环流因子,分析了1979—2013年江南地区4—6月低频降水及其关联的大气环流特征,着重讨论了中高纬度与热带共同作用对低频降水的影响及可能机理。结果表明:(1)江南4—6月降水的第1模态呈现全区一致的变化趋势,其10—30 d低频降水方差贡献率在江南南部较大,部分区域可达20%。(2)降水的低频异常不仅与热带对流有关,还与中高纬度大气环流的变化显著相关。当东印度洋及印度尼西亚一带对流旺盛,中国上游欧洲至西伯利亚地区高纬度位势高度表现为显著的正异常,江南上空为负异常时,有利于江南低频降水。(3)中高纬度大气环流与热带对流共同作用影响江南4—6月低频降水:当热带对流旺盛区(抑制区)位于东印度洋及印度尼西亚海洋性大陆一带时,热带热源的非绝热加热引起显著的上升(下沉)运动,并激发经向罗斯贝波北传;同时高纬度欧洲至西伯利亚地区的位势高度负异常(正异常)向东向南传播,两者在江南上游叠加,低压(高压)底前部的西南风(东北风)有利于孟加拉湾对江南的水汽输送加强(减弱),对应江南地区整层水汽通量辐合(辐散),低频降水偏多(偏少)。

Variability Modes of the Winter Upper-Level Wind Field over Asian MidHigh Latitude Region

In this study,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset was used to analyze the variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field over Asian mid-high latitude region.As shown by the results,the dominant variability modes of the winter upper-level wind field over Asian mid-high latitude region are characterized by the out-of-phase variation in the intensity of the subtropical and temperate jets over East Asia and the meridional shift of the subtropical jet axis,on interannual and multiannual scales,respectively.The first leading variability mode can be used as a good measure to represent the integral variation of atmospheric general circulation in Asian mid-latitude region.Composite analyses suggest that the first leading variability mode of the winter upper-level wind field is intimately related to the atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in the northern hemispheric mid-latitude region.

A Dipole Pattern of Summer Precipitation over Mid-high Latitude Asia and Related Snow Cover Anomalies in the Preceding Spring

A dipole pattern of summer precipitation over the mid-high latitudes of Asia, which is characterized by opposing summer precipitation variations between the Mongolian and Northeast China(MNC) region and the West Siberian Plain(WSP), is found to be clear and stable on both interdecadal and interannual scales during 1981–2011. Spring snow cover anomalies over a small region within the WSP and the Heilongjiang River(HR) region are closely related to the variation of this dipole mode during the subsequent summer, and they can therefore be considered as forecasting factors. Our statistical results imply a potential process explaining the relationship between the spring snow anomalies and the summer rainfall dipole. Corresponding to the snow anomalies, Rossby waves propagate along a path from the WSP region, via the Mongolian Plateau, to the Stanovoy Range during summer. At the same time, Rossby-wave energy divergences and convergences along this path maintain and reinforce an anomalous cyclone and anticyclone pairing over the Asian continent, which is significantly linked to opposite summer precipitation anomalies between the MNC and WSP regions. Numerical experiments are needed to further confirm the above conjecture and demonstrate the detailed physical mechanisms linking the spring snow cover anomalies and summer precipitation dipole.

Low- and Mid-High Latitude Components of the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Their Reflecting Variations in Winter Climate over Eastern China

The present study defines a low-latitude component (regionally averaged winter 1000-hPa V-winds over 10 25°N, 105 135°E) and a mid-high-latitude component (regionally averaged winter 1000-hPa V-winds over 30 50°N, 110 125°E) of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which are denoted as EAWM-L and EAWM-M, respectively. The study examines the variation characteristics, reflecting variations in winter climate over eastern China, and associated atmospheric circulations corresponding to the two components. The main results are as follows: 1) the EAWM-L and EAWM-M have consistent variation in some years but opposite variations in other years; 2) the EAWM-M index mainly reflects the extensive temperature variability over eastern China, while the EAWM-L index better reflects the variation in winter precipitation over most parts of eastern China; and 3) corresponding to the variation in the EAWM-M index, anomalous winds over the mid-high latitudes of East Asia modulate the southward invasion of cold air from the high latitudes and accordingly affect temperatures over eastern China. In combination with the variation in the EAWM-L index, anomalous low-latitudinal winds regulate the water vapor transport from tropical oceans to eastern China, resulting in anomalous winter precipitation. These pronounced differences between the EAWM-L and the EAWM-M suggest that it is necessary to explore the monsoons' individual features and effects in the EAWM study.

考虑不同背景场低频降水的延伸期预测

基于中国国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料、NCEP逐日全球再分析资料和NOAA逐日向外长波辐射资料,选取与10—30 d低频降水相关显著的热带、中高纬环流作为影响因子,针对1979—2013年江南4—6月延伸期低频降水,依照不同背景场下低频降水与影响因子之间的相关性,进行了预测试验。结果表明:江南4—6月降水以10—30 d的低频周期最为显著。印度洋、印尼附近的热带对流和欧亚高纬度地区的大气环流共同影响着我国江南4—6月低频降水,可作为延伸期降水的预测因子。当欧洲及西西伯利亚地区位势高度出现负距平、北美及贝湖以西附近位势高度正距平,且热带对流异常偏弱时,对应江南低频降水异常偏少,异常中心主要位于长江中下游地区; 30 d以上的大尺度500 h Pa低频位势高度场主要表现为3种空间分布型,根据这3种分布型可将逐日降水个例的大尺度背景场划分为3类,每种背景场下低频降水与热带、中高纬度环流因子在前期30 d内的相关特征均不同; 30 d以上时间尺度的500 h Pa低频环流可为10—30 d延伸期变化提供相对稳定的大尺度背景场,不同背景场下区域低频降水与相应低频环流之间的关系演变不同。考虑不同背景,其相关性增强,且显著相关超前的时间更长。

The Relationship between the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Summer Precipitation over East Asia as Simulated by the IAP AGCM4.0

Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV), and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes.

Assessing the Impacts of Eurasian Snow Conditions on Climate Predictability with a Global Climate Model

On the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model(Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model,hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM),the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated.The predictive skill of sea level pressures(SLP)and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model.Furthermore,the model skill in reproducing the interannual variation and spatial distribution of the surface air temperature(SAT)anomalies over China was improved by applying realistic(prescribed)Eurasian snow conditions.The predictive skill of the summer precipitation in China was low;however,when realistic snow conditions were employed,the predictability increased,illustrating the effectiveness of the application of realistic Eurasian snow conditions.Overall,the results of the present study suggested that Eurasian snow conditions have a significant effect on dynamical seasonal prediction in China.When Eurasian snow conditions in the global climate model(GCM)can be more realistically represented,the predictability of summer climate over China increases.

Projections of 2.0°C Warming over the Globe and China under RCP4.5

The outputs of 17 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to investigate the temporal and spatial features of 2.0°C warming of the surface temperature over the globe and China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The simulations of the period 1860-1899 in the "historical" experiment are chosen as the baseline. The simulations for the 21st century in the RCP4.5 experiment are chosen as the future project. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that the global mean temperature would cross the 2.0°C warming threshold in 2047. Warming in most of the models would cross the threshold during 2030-2060. For local warming, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere show the fastest warming over the globe. Land areas warm substantially faster than the oceans. Most of the southern oceans would not exceed the 2.0°C warming threshold within the 21st century. Over China, surface warming is substantially faster than the global mean. The area-averaged warming would cross the 2.0°C threshold in 2034. Locally, Northwest China shows the fastest warming trend, followed by Central North China and Northeast China. Central China, East China, and South China are the last to cross the 2.0°C warming threshold. The diversity of the models is also estimated in this study. Generally, the spread among the models increases with time, and there is smaller spread among the models for the areas with the faster warming.

On Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Sea Fog Occurrence over the Northern Atlantic from 1909 to 2008

In this paper, the International Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) is utilized to investigate the horizontal distribution of sea fog occurrence frequency over the Northern Atlantic as well as the meteorological and oceanic conditions for sea fog formation. Sea fog over the Northern Atlantic mainly occurs over middle and high latitudes. Sea fog occurrence frequency over the western region of the Northern Atlantic is higher than that over the eastern region. The season for sea fog occurrence over the Northern Atlantic is generally from April to August. When sea fogs occur, the prevailing wind direction in the study area is from southerly to southwesterly and the favorable wind speed is around 8 m s-1. It is most favorable for the formation of sea fogs when sea surface temperature(SST) is 5℃ to 15℃. When SST is higher than 25℃, it is difficult for the air to get saturated, and there is almost no report of sea fog. When sea fogs form, the difference between sea surface temperature and air temperature is mainly-1 to 3℃, and the difference of 0℃ to 2℃ is the most favorable conditions for fog formation. There are two types of sea fogs prevailing in this region: advection cooling fog and advection evaporating fog.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SSTA IMPACTS OVER THE GLOBAL OCEAN ON THE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION OVER EURASIA IN JANUARY 2008

In this paper, we discussed the features of atmospheric circulations over Eurasia as a response to sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） over the tropical Indian Ocean, the equatorial Pacific, Kuroshio and the North Atlantic. Our results are shown as follows： （1） CAM3.0, driven by the combined SSTAs over the four oceanic regions, can simulate well the features of anomalous atmospheric circulations over Eurasia in January 2008, indicating that the effects of the SSTAs over these four regions were one of the key causes of the anomalous systems over Eurasia. （2） The SSTAs over each key region contributed to the intensification of blocking over the Urals Mountains and a main East Asian trough. However, the influence of the SSTAs over individual oceanic regions differed from one another in other aspects. The SSTAs over the North Atlantic had an impact on the 500-hPa anomalous height （Z500A） over the middle-high latitudes and had a somewhat smaller effect over the low latitudes. For the warm SSTAs over Kuroshio, the subtropical high was much stronger, spread farther north than usual, and had an anomalous easterly that dominated the northwest Pacific Ocean. The warm SSTAs over the tropical Indian Ocean could have caused a negative Z500A from West Asia to Middle Asia, a remarkably anomalous southwesterly from the Indian Ocean to the south of China and an anomalous anticyclone circulation over the South China Sea-Philippine Sea region. Because of the La Nifia event, the winter monsoon was stronger than normal, with an anomalously cooler northerly over the southeastern coastal areas of China. （3） The combined effects of the SSTAs over the four key regions were likely more important to the atmospheric circulation anomalies of January 2008 over Eurasia than the effects of individual or partly combined SSTAS. This unique SSTA distribution possibly led to the circulation anomalies over Eurasia in January 2008, especially the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the subtropics, which were more similar to those of the winter E1 Nifio events than to the circulation anomalies following La Nifia.

Influences of the interannual variability of vegetation LAI on surface temperature

The influences of interannual variability of vegetation LAI on surface temperature are investigated via two ensemble simulations, applying the Community Earth System Model. The interannual LAI, derived from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies NDVI for the period 1982-2011, and its associated climatological LAI, are used in the two ensemble simulations, respectively.The results show that the signals of the influences, represented as ensemble-mean differences, are generally weaker than the noises of the atmospheric variability, represented as one standard deviation of the ensemble differences. Spatially, the signals are stronger over the tropics compared with the mid-high latitudes. Such stronger signals are contributed by the significant linearity between LAI and surface temperature, which is mainly caused via the influences of LAI on evapotranspiration.The maximum amplitudes of the influences on the interannual variability of surface temperature are high and thus deserve full consideration. However, the mean magnitudes of influences are small because of the small changes in the amplitudes of LAI. This work only investigates the influences of the interannual variability of LAI and does not consider interannual changes in other vegetation characteristics, such as canopy height and fractional cover. Further work involving dynamic vegetation models may be needed to investigate the influences of vegetation variability.

Geographical Variation in Oligochaete Density and Biomass in Subtropical Mangrove Wetlands of China

Oligochaetes play an important role in nutrient cycling and energy flow in benthic food webs as well as in mangrove wetlands. However, they have not been as extensively studied as other macrofaunal groups such as polychaetes, gastropods, bivalves, and crustaceans. Under the assumption that oligochaete density and biomass obey specific geographical distribution patterns in subtropical mangrove wetlands of China, we investigated these two parameters in the Luoyang Estuary of Quanzhou Bay, Zhangjiang Estuary and Gaoqiao mangrove wetlands. A geographical gradient in oligochaete density was present in Aegiceras corniculatum and Kandelia obovata habitats, whereby it decreased from lower latitudes to higher latitudes. Further, ANOVA tests on oligochaete distribution revealed that both oligochaete density and biomass were significantly influenced by region, season and region × season at the A. corniculatum and K. obovata habitats. The annual average oligochaete density and biomass at the A. corniculatum habitat were higher than that at the K. obovata habitat, in both the Luoyang and Zhangjiang estuaries. There were significant correlations between oligochaete density and biomass and sediment particle size parameters, confirming that sand, silt, and clay contents were the key environmental factors affecting oligochaete distribution.

Interannual Climate Variability of the Past Millennium from Simulations

The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. It is found that large temperature(precipitation) variability is most dominant at high latitudes(tropical monsoon regions), and the seasonal magnitudes are greater than the annual mean. Significant multi-decadal-scale changes exist throughout the whole period for the zonal mean of both temperature and precipitation variability, while their long-term trends are indistinctive. The volcanic forcings correlate well with the temperature variability at midlatitudes, indicating possible leading drivers for the interannual time scale climate change.

Abrupt Climate Changes of Holocene

This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris(IRD),there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene,occurring at 11.1 kyr,10.3 kyr,9.4 kyr,8.1 kyr,5.9 kyr,4.2 kyr,2.8 kyr,1.4 kyr,and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al.(1997).However,the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties.Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that,during the cold events,substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe,particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic.These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres,expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes,drought in the monsoon regions,recession of summer monsoons,and intensification of the winter monsoons.Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic,and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity.

Quasi-stationary planetary waves in the middle atmosphere of Mars

Using the temperature profiles retrieved from the Mars Climate Sounder（MCS） instrument onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter（MRO） satellite between November 2006 and April 2013, we studied the seasonal and interannual variability of QuasiStationary Planetary Waves（QSPWs） in the Martian middle atmosphere. The QSPW amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere（SH） high latitudes are significantly stronger than those in the Northern Hemisphere（NH）. Seasonal variation with maximum amplitude near winter solstice of each hemisphere is clearly seen. The vertical structure of the QSPW in temperature shows double-layer feature with one peak near 50 Pa and the other peak near 1 Pa. The QSPW in geopotential height is clearly maximized in the region between two temperature peaks. The maximum amplitude of QSPW for s=1 is ~8–10 K in temperature and ~1 km in geopotential height in the SH high latitudes. The maximum amplitude at the SH high latitudes in Mars Year（MY） 31 is ~2 K stronger than those in other MYs, suggesting the clear interannual variability. We compared the satellite results with those obtained from the Mars Climate Database（MCD） simulation version 5.0; a reasonable agreement was found. The MCD simulation further suggested that the variability of dust might partially contribute to the interannual variability of QSPW amplitude.

Arctic Oscillation anomaly in winter 2009/2010 and its impacts on weather and climate

Using the Arctic Oscillation(AO) index,the exceptional winter(DJF) of 2009 has been analyzed.The middle-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere suffered from a nearly zonally symmetric anomaly of temperature and pressure.This situation revealed that two negative AO events occurred in the winter of 2009/2010,with unprecedented low values in January 2009 and February 2010.The negative AO event in January 2009 can be further divided into two stages:the first stage was mainly driven by enhanced upward-propagating planetary waves,which led to a weak stratospheric polar vortex associated with a downward-propagating negative AO signal;the second stage was caused by a lower tropospheric positive temperature anomaly in the high latitudes,which maintained the positive geopotential height anomaly of the first stage.The two successively occurring stages interacted and caused the lower troposphere to experience a strong and lengthy persistence of the negative AO event.We consider that the second event of negative AO in February 2010 is related to the downward-propagating negative AO after sudden stratospheric warming.Eleven long-persistence negative AO events were analyzed using reanalysis data.The results suggest that the negative AO in the troposphere might have been caused by stratospheric sudden warming,a downward-propagating weak stratospheric circulation anomaly or dynamic processes in the troposphere.Further study shows that the negative phase of the AO in the winter of 2009/2010 corresponded to a wide range of temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting and climate prediction,more attention should be paid to the AO anomaly and its impact.

Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s

Global warming accelerated after the late1970 s and slowed down after the late 1990 s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional climate.We hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide (RFCO_2) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the RFCO_2 and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970 s and 1990 s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the RFCO_2 and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the RFCO_2 could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990 s shift.The PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions(negativepositive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the RFCO2(53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO(33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the RFCO_2 dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the RFCO2(PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 %(37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the RFCO_2 effects for the late 1990 s shift.