基于改进SHAP的城市供水管网爆管主影响因素研究

城市供水管网爆管事件频发,基于爆管主影响因素的风险评估研究亟待深入开展。主影响因素识别是爆管风险评估准确性的重要基础,现有爆管风险评估模型研究缺乏对爆管主影响因素的分析,导致模型精度偏低。本文提出基于信息增益率权值的改进SHAP法(SHapley Additive ex Planation),改善了多影响因素共同作用时各个特征的shapley值区分度较小、误差较大的问题。使得特征区分度较好、误差降低,有利于影响爆管的主影响因素更容易被自来水公司发觉。对爆管评估模型进行主影响因素分析结果表明,基于改进SHAP法获得的爆管主影响因素有利于提高供水管道爆管风险评估的准确率。

基于主影响因素的城市时用水量预测

针对城市用水量影响因素的多样性、随地域时间多变的特点及与时用水预测时间尺度难匹配的问题,提出基于主影响因素的城市时用水量预测方法。该方法先以改进的灰色关联法对用水量影响因素进行分析讨论,把得到的主影响因素作为算法输入量对预测日用水量做预测;而后针对预测日的时用水特征,在动态模糊聚类中引入聚类中心距离评价函数及非线性约束条件,寻求预测日的各时段水量分配模式,并依据该模式做时用水量的最终预测及合理调度。用萧山南阳镇历史用水量为例,做预测仿真验证,结果表明,该方法能够很好跟踪预测日的时用水量变化,稳定跟踪能力及跟踪精度上远优于传统时间序列预测法,易满足供水系统的调度精度需求。

基于层次分析法的网络消费主影响因素分析

营销的重点在于了解消费者的需求,网络营销也不例外。目前已有许多学者对网络消费影响因素进行了研究分析,然而由于早期网络消费软、硬件条件的局限,使得大多数研究都无法忽略网络消费客观因素的影响,导致多数研究结果具有综合而宽泛的特点。随着互联网、物流配送、网上支付等电子商务辅助环节的不断发展成熟,网络消费环境发生了巨大的变化,本文在近几年所公开发表的互联网发展状况统计报告的基础上,引用了层次分析法,针对新形势下虚拟环境中影响消费者购买决策的多项因素进行综合分析,总结出其主要影响因素,从而从营销的角度更有针对性的帮助企业了解网络消费者的需求。

基于改进SHAP的城市供水管网爆管主影响因素研究

我国管网信息化起步较晚,部分信息不完善,部分数据难以计量,导致可用数据缺失和偏差,难以使用综合数据评估爆管风险,甚至降低模型的准确性。通过对爆管主要影响因素的分析,可以合理区分主要因素和次要因素,减少模型的过拟合,减少次要因素信息不足对风险评估的不利影响,提高爆管模型的准确性。同时,可以提高对主要影响因素的监控,减缓对次要影响因素的监控,合理分配工作。基于改进的SHAP法,主要分析了城市供水管网爆管的主要影响因素。

基于层次分析法的高速公路交通量主影响因素提取

交通量预测是高速公路项目工程可行性研究的核心，而高速公路交通量影响因素的分析又是交通量预测的基础。为了减少交通量预测样本数据的前期调查工作、降低预测成本以及提高预测速度，有必要对高速公路交通量主影响因素进行提取。基于高速公路交通量影响因素的多准则和多目标特征，本文以山东省环胶州湾高速公路为例，采用层次分析法来提取主影响因素，以此来验证了该方法提取交通量主影响因素的科学性和合理性。

东北地区中小城市人口流动影响因素分析——以黑龙江省伊春市为例

东北地区作为老工业基地,曾为全国的经济发展做出重大贡献。如今东北地区存在产业结构单一、人口老龄化、自然生育率低、基础设施落后等问题,导致人口流失率直线上升。为更加系统、准确地了解东北地区人口流失现状,为振兴东北老工业基地提出建设性意见,并从生活环境、生活成本及医疗卫生等角度选择11项指标,通过主成分分析法对伊春市人口流失因素进行分析,得到3个主成分。结果表明,近年来伊春市人口流失率呈间歇升高趋势,其中2015—2016年人口流失率急速上升,而2017年后虽趋于平缓,但仍呈上升趋势。人口流动主要受收入和房价为主的生活成本及人均公园绿地面积为主的生活环境的影响。

用关联分析法探讨青海省“两高一优”农业的发展

农业生产是一个庞大的系统工程,是受诸多因素影响的。各影响因素对其目标的影响有主要的,也有次要的。对于影响总产的主影响因素,我们运用灰色系统理论,通过关联分析法,对青海省农业生产发展的主要影响因素进行分析,得出:良种化程度,已成为影响青海省发展高产、优质、高效农业的主影响因素。目前,我们应在稳定播种面积、提高土壤肥力、确定合理种植结构的基础上,扩大有效灌溉面积,特别要加强种子的选育和良种的推广。这是一条符合青海省农业实际情况,在短期内获得高产量、高品质、高效益,适应农村市场经济的最佳途径和有效方法。

Impacts of Social and Demographic Factors on Residents' Subjective Well-being in Rural China

The objective of social development is to construct a harmonious society.In China,the key to a harmonious society is the happiness of more than 900 million farmers living in the rural areas.This study aimed to measure rural residents' subjective well-being(SWB) through the day reconstruction method,as well as to analyze SWB's influencing factors through a variety of statistical methods.The results showed that the average U index was 12.79%,indicating that respondents were unhappy 12.79% of the time.Twenty-seven percent of the population had a U index greater than 0,with the average value being 47%,indicating that these people were unhappy 47% of the time.The study also found that SWB varied according to the characteristics of the respondents.Logistic regression analysis showed that social and demographic factors,including age,education,county,household size,generation number,per capita income,migration status and social networking,which significantly affected rural residents' SWB.The size of the impact varied with the different factors.

Study on Influencing Factors of Capital Structure of Energy Listed Companies

Based on the determinative factors school of capital structure theory, this paper uses the data of 35 Chinese energy listed companies from 2000 to 2003, and adopts multi-variable regression method to make an empirical study of the influencing factors of their capital structure. The results indicate that the factors of size, income volatility, and the concentration of owner’s equity have positive relation with the capital structure, while the relation between profit- ability and capital structure is negative. It is also found that the influencing of growth and secured asset on the capital structure are relatively insignificant.

A Comparative Analysis of the Effect Factors of Audit Pricing in a Share ＂Three Boards＂ Market

China＇s share market can be classified into main board, small-and medium-sized board, and growth enterprise market （GEM） board market. This paper, based on the effect factors of audit pricing, empirically analyzes the audit pricings of 2009＇s annual report of listed companies in ＂Three Boards＂ market with the result that the audit pricing of companies in main board market is significantly affected by size of the auditee, corporate governance, operating risk, and features of auditor etc.. The same result is showed among the companies in the small-and medium-sized board market which is exclusive of operating risk factor, while in GEM board market, the audit pricing is only affected by numbers of auditees＇ subsidiaries and ratio of independent directors etc..

The analysis of the influence factors of China＇s real estate prices

The real estate market is an ilnportant part of China＇s socialist market economy. Real estate price xs not only a profound role on the level of consumption of the residents, but a profound role on the steady development of the banking sector-based financial sector. Real estate price have a significant impact not only on the development ofmacroeconomic stability, but on the safety of financial system. Chinese economy is currently on the period of transition from investment and export promotion of economic growth mode to a demand-led growth, it is an important role to China＇s economic growth for sustained and healthy development of real estate market.

基于主成分分析的电子产品有害物测评系统

基于主成分分析算法的电子产品有害物质分析测评系统设计的主要目的是能为出口企业的产品质检人员和检验检疫机构的检验人员提供相应电子产品的主要成分污染等级信息。利用Visual Studio 2010设计开发电子产品有毒有害物质分析测评系统,该系统具有新版Ro HS指令解析、主成分分析评估、电子产品有害物质评价体系为一体的综合功能。重点是结合电子产品有毒有害物质评价指标体系,应用主成分分析建立分析模型,对电子产品有毒有害物质进行综合评价,确定主要影响因素。