My purpose in this paper is to argue for two separate, but related theses. The first is that contemporary analytic philosophy is incoherent. This is so, I argue, because its methods contain as an essential constituent...My purpose in this paper is to argue for two separate, but related theses. The first is that contemporary analytic philosophy is incoherent. This is so, I argue, because its methods contain as an essential constituent a non-classical conception of intuition that cannot be rendered consistent with a key tenet of analytic philosophy unless we allow a Bayesian-subjectivist epistemology. I argue for this within a discussion of two theories of intuition： a classical account as proposed by Descartes and a modem reliabilist account as proposed by Komblith, maintaining that reliabilist accounts require a commitment to Bayesian subjectivism about probability. However, and this is the second thesis, Bayesian subjecfivism is itself logically incoherent given three simple assumptions： （1） some empirical propositions are known, （2） any proposition that is known is assigned a degree of subjective credence of 1, and （3） every empirical proposition is evidentially relevant to at least one other proposition. I establish this using a formal reductio proof. I argue for the t-u-st thesis in section 1 and for the second in section 2. The final section contains a summary and conclusion.展开更多
MDSA （macro demand spatial approach） is an approach introduced in long time electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmission planning and policy decision on electricity infrastruc...MDSA （macro demand spatial approach） is an approach introduced in long time electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmission planning and policy decision on electricity infrastructure development in a region. In the model, MDSA combined with PCA （principal component analysis） and QA （qualitative analysis） to determine main development area in region and the variables that affecting electricity demand in there. Main development area is an area with industrial domination as a driver of economic growth. The electricity demand driver variables are different for type of electricity consumer. However, they will be equal for main development areas. The variables which have no significant effect can be reduced by using PCA. The generated models tested to assess whether it still at the range of confidence level of electricity demand forecasting. At the case study, generated model for main development areas at South Sumatra Subsystem as a part of Sumatra Interconnection System is still in the range of confidence level. Thus, MDSA can be proposed as alternative approach in transmission planning that considering location.展开更多
To further the potential for applied personality studies, we present a methodology for assessing personality in nonhu man animals without a priori assumptions, using behavioral measures to discriminate personality sur...To further the potential for applied personality studies, we present a methodology for assessing personality in nonhu man animals without a priori assumptions, using behavioral measures to discriminate personality survey results. Our study group consisted of 12 freeranging, provisioned, adult Tibetan macaques Macaca thibetana at the Valley of the Wild Monkeys, China. We asked familiar Chinese park guards and scientists to rate each of the 12 macaques using 27item personality surveys. We also recorded behavioral observations （〉 100 hrs） from AugustSeptember, 2012. The personality surveys showed reliability in 22 of the items that were then utilized in a principal component analysis that revealed five components： Insecurity, Reactivity, Boldness, Sociability, and Leadership. Prior personality research on Macaca show comparable components. In order to determine which behaviors would best predict those five personality components, we conducted discriminant analyses using behavioral measures as predictors. We found that behavioral measures of avoidance, lunging, feargrinning, selfdirected behaviors, touching, proximity and chasing could significantly predict personality component scores in certain situations. Finally, we analyzed the effects of situation （provisioning and tourists） and found situation influenced proximity and rates of avoidance and selfdirected behaviors. Wider implementation of this methodology may permit longterm analysis of personality using behavioral proxies for established personality traits, in particular on research investigating the effects of tourism and provisioning on personality .展开更多
文摘My purpose in this paper is to argue for two separate, but related theses. The first is that contemporary analytic philosophy is incoherent. This is so, I argue, because its methods contain as an essential constituent a non-classical conception of intuition that cannot be rendered consistent with a key tenet of analytic philosophy unless we allow a Bayesian-subjectivist epistemology. I argue for this within a discussion of two theories of intuition： a classical account as proposed by Descartes and a modem reliabilist account as proposed by Komblith, maintaining that reliabilist accounts require a commitment to Bayesian subjectivism about probability. However, and this is the second thesis, Bayesian subjecfivism is itself logically incoherent given three simple assumptions： （1） some empirical propositions are known, （2） any proposition that is known is assigned a degree of subjective credence of 1, and （3） every empirical proposition is evidentially relevant to at least one other proposition. I establish this using a formal reductio proof. I argue for the t-u-st thesis in section 1 and for the second in section 2. The final section contains a summary and conclusion.
文摘MDSA （macro demand spatial approach） is an approach introduced in long time electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmission planning and policy decision on electricity infrastructure development in a region. In the model, MDSA combined with PCA （principal component analysis） and QA （qualitative analysis） to determine main development area in region and the variables that affecting electricity demand in there. Main development area is an area with industrial domination as a driver of economic growth. The electricity demand driver variables are different for type of electricity consumer. However, they will be equal for main development areas. The variables which have no significant effect can be reduced by using PCA. The generated models tested to assess whether it still at the range of confidence level of electricity demand forecasting. At the case study, generated model for main development areas at South Sumatra Subsystem as a part of Sumatra Interconnection System is still in the range of confidence level. Thus, MDSA can be proposed as alternative approach in transmission planning that considering location.
文摘To further the potential for applied personality studies, we present a methodology for assessing personality in nonhu man animals without a priori assumptions, using behavioral measures to discriminate personality survey results. Our study group consisted of 12 freeranging, provisioned, adult Tibetan macaques Macaca thibetana at the Valley of the Wild Monkeys, China. We asked familiar Chinese park guards and scientists to rate each of the 12 macaques using 27item personality surveys. We also recorded behavioral observations （〉 100 hrs） from AugustSeptember, 2012. The personality surveys showed reliability in 22 of the items that were then utilized in a principal component analysis that revealed five components： Insecurity, Reactivity, Boldness, Sociability, and Leadership. Prior personality research on Macaca show comparable components. In order to determine which behaviors would best predict those five personality components, we conducted discriminant analyses using behavioral measures as predictors. We found that behavioral measures of avoidance, lunging, feargrinning, selfdirected behaviors, touching, proximity and chasing could significantly predict personality component scores in certain situations. Finally, we analyzed the effects of situation （provisioning and tourists） and found situation influenced proximity and rates of avoidance and selfdirected behaviors. Wider implementation of this methodology may permit longterm analysis of personality using behavioral proxies for established personality traits, in particular on research investigating the effects of tourism and provisioning on personality .
