小型震损水库溃坝风险分析研究

为研究小型震损水库溃坝风险,对水库的溃坝路径、溃坝概率、溃坝后果进行分析,建立风险评价模型,最终确定其风险指数。在简单介绍此模型的基础上,通过实例说明其在水库风险分析中的应用,确定模型的实用性及便捷性。

Evaluating the Algorithm for Correction of the Bright Band Effects in QPEs with S-, C-and X-Band Dual-Polarized Radars

The bright band, a layer of enhanced radar reflectivity associated with melting ice particles, is a major source of signifi- cant overestimation in quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） based on the Z-R （reflectivity factor-rain rate） relationship. The effects of the bright band on radar-based QPE can be eliminated by vertical profile of reflectivity （VPR） correction. In this study, we applied bright-band correction algorithms to evaluate three different bands （S-, C- and X-band） of dual-polarized radars and to reduce overestimation errors in Z-R relationship-based QPEs. After the reflectivity was corrected by the algo- rithms using average VPR （AVPR） alone and a combination of average VPR and the vertical profile of the copolar correlation coefficient （AVPR＋CC）, the QPEs were derived. The bright-band correction and resulting QPEs were evaluated in eight precipitation events by comparing to the uncorrected reflectivity and rain-gange observations, separately. The overestimation of Z-R relationship-based QPEs associated with the bright band was reduced after correction by the two schemes for which hourly rainfall was less than 5 mm. For the verification metrics of RMSE （root-mean-square error）, RMAE （relative mean absolute error） and RMB （relative mean bias） of QPEs, averaged over all eight cases, the AVPR method improved from 2.28, 0.94 and 0.78 to 1.55, 0.60 and 0.40, respectively, while the AVPR＋CC method improved to 1.44, 0.55 and 0.30, respectively. The QPEs after AVPR＋CC correction had less overestimation than those after AVPR correction, and similar conclusions were drawn for all three different bands of dual-polarized radars.

Surface Soil Moisture Simulation for a Typical Torrential Event with a Modified Noah LSM Coupling to the NWP Model

Surface soil moisture has great impact on both meso-and microscale atmospheric processes,especially on severe local convection processes and on the dynamics of short-lived torrential rains.To promote the performance of the land surface model (LSM) in surface soil moisture simulations,a hybrid hydrologic runoff parameterization scheme based upon the essential modeling theories of the Xin'anjiang model and Topography based hydrological Model (TOPMODEL) was developed in preference to the simple water balance model (SWB) in the Noah LSM.Using a strategy for coupling and integrating this modified Noah LSM to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) analogous to that used with the standard Noah LSM,a simulation of atmosphere-land surface interactions for a torrential event during 2007 in Shandong was attempted.The results suggested that the surface,10-cm depth soil moisture simulated by GRAPES using the modified hydrologic approach agrees well with the observations.Improvements from the simulated results were found,especially over eastern Shandong.The simulated results,compared with the products of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) soil moisture datasets,indicated a consistent spatial pattern over all of China.The temporal variation of surface soil moisture was validated with the data at an observation station,also demonstrated that GRAPES with modified Noah LSM exhibits a more reasonable response to precipitation events,even though biases and systematic trends may still exist.