全媒体时代网络舆情事件高热度生成机理研究

探究网络舆情事件高热度传播生成机理有利于政府对舆情的监督与引导。基于传播学“5W”理论,以新冠肺炎疫情下30个典型的网络舆情事件作为研究对象,运用模糊集定性比较方法探究了网络舆情高热度的生成机理。研究结果表明,网络舆情热度的生成存在信息源变量*网络媒体参与变量*重要媒体报道变量*情感反馈变量*干预措施变量等四条不同的原因组合路径,其中信息源、网络媒体参与、情感反馈以及干预措施是对网络舆情事件热度有重要影响的核心条件。结合案例,本文从政府干预与网络媒体把控信息源两个方面提出对网络舆情事件进行监督与引导的建议。

突发涉水事件的舆情分析研究

互联网信息公开、迅速、透明且易于收集,对于突发性水利事件的分析,互联网舆情大数据分析是一个发展趋势,这种方式能以较小代价快速获取数据,分析得到有价值的信息,正成为辅助常规水利事件监测处理的有力方式。在研究和应用现状分析的基础上,通过对搜索引擎、社交论坛和新闻报道等渠道采集相关数据并分析挖掘,提出面向突发事件的热度和情感分析模型,并对2017年嘉陵江铊污染突发事件,从9个情感维度进行分析。微博用户的陈述、愤怒、担心的比重较大,论坛评论的用户大部分都表示出较理性的心态,新闻评论的网友多处于担心和追责状态,负面情绪偏多。突发涉水事件的舆情传播很快,因为事件应急处理措施快速生效,水污染情况得到有效控制,事件舆情逐渐趋于稳定。

突发涉水事件舆情及后续影响分析——以嘉陵江铊污染事件为例

针对突发水事件的各类数据信息对分析事件起因、发展和后续影响有着相当重要的价值。在研究应用现状分析的基础上,利用事件热度与Bi-LSTM情感分析2个模型,对2021年嘉陵江铊污染突发事件进行分析,分析结果说明:事件热度方面,华东、西北地区的公众较为活跃,微博热度具有聚集性和滞后性的特点,新闻平台则体现出热度的延续性特点;事件舆情方面,微博舆情表现出比新闻平台舆情更为负面的情绪,两者都缺乏相对理性客观的评论。从后续影响角度看,部分气象水文因素导致铊污染二次发生,其次疫情前后,炼钢、冶锌行业利润存在大幅度波动态势,产量受高利润驱动而提高,一定程度诱发此类污染事件。突发涉水事件舆情传播迅速,影响范围较广,事件发展程度与舆情走势息息相关。

网络热点信息识别方法研究

热点信息识别是网络舆情分析与监控领域内的一项基本工作。分析了用于衡量网络事件热度的性能指标,提出通过计算事件热度的方式来识别出当前网络热点信息。

Sensitivity Difference in the Extratropical Atmosphere to Two Types of El Nio Events

A comparison of sensitivity in extratropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere （NH） and Southern Hemisphere （SH） is conducted through observational analyses and diagnostic linear model experiments for two types of El Ni（n）o events,the traditional El Ni（n）o with the strongest warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific （EP El Ni（n）o） and the El Ni（n）o Modoki with the strongest warmth in the central tropical Pacific （CP El Ni（n）o）.It is shown that CP El Ni（n）o favors the occurrence of a negative-phase Northern Annular Mode （NAM）,while EP El Ni（n）o favors that of the Pacific-North American （PNA） pattern.In SH,both EP and CP El Ni（n）o induce a negative phase Southern Annular Mode （SAM）.However,the former has a greater amplitude,which is consistent with the stronger sea surface temperature （SST） warmth.The difference in the two types of El Ni（n）o events in NH may originate from the dependence of heating-induced extratropical response on the location of initial heating,which may be associated with activity of the stationary wave.In SH,the lack of sensitivity to the location of heating can be associated with weaker activity of the stationary wave therein.

Comparative Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Weather in the Summers of 2013 and 2003

The characteristics of regional high temperature(HT) weather in 2013 and 2003 and their causes were studied using daily maximum temperature data, National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis data, and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) data. For these two years of HT weather, there were many similar characteristics, such as their long duration, wide range, high intensity, and severe influence. However, there were also three obvious differences: firstly, in 2013, the major area where HT weather occurred was farther north than in 2003; secondly, the HT weather in South China and the southeast area of Jiangnan in 2013 lasted fewer days than in 2003, but in other areas it lasted for more days than in 2003; thirdly, the intensity of the HT weather in 2013 was also stronger in the north and weaker in the south, similar to that of the duration. A strong and stable western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), a continental warm high, and the distribution of the warm center in the lower troposphere played important roles in the HT weather formation. Several probable causes for the differences are that the cold air was weaker, the WPSH was farther north, and the tropical convective systems were stronger in 2013 than in 2003. Finally, a preliminary cause analysis of the WPSH anomaly was presented.

What Determines the Amplitude of ENSO Events?

In this paper, the dynamic effect of oceanic upwelling on the intensity of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscilla tion （ENSO） is studied using a simple coupled model （Zebiak-Cane Model）. The term balance analysis in the temperature variability equation shows that the anomalous upwelling of the mean vertical temperature gradient and the mean advection of the anomalous meridional tem perature gradient are the two of most important factors that determine the intensity of ENSO events, in which the ＂vertical oceanic heat flux＂ in the eastern equatorial Pa cific （EEP） is the primary influencing factor. The lag cor relation between ＂vertical heat flux （VHF）＂ and ENSO intensity shows that the highest correlation occurs when the former leads the latter by one to two weeks. The VHF is positively correlated with the background thermocline strength in the EEP, and an increase of both could result in strong ENSO variability. Comparison of the forced and coupled experiments suggests that the coupled process can affect both the intensity and freauencv of ENSO.

New progresses on geothermal history of Turpan-Hami Basin,Xinjiang,China

A comprehensive study on geothermal history of the Turpan-HamiBasin by vitrinite reflectance, fluid inclusion geothermometry, apatite fission track and 40Ar-39Ar dating displays that the main effects influencing geotemperature distribution are burial depth of the basement, heat flow, magmatic activities, as well as tectonic movement, having a rugulation to be higher in the east and north, lower in the west and south, as well as higher in the past and lower at the present. The heat of the mantle source and the Indo-China tectonic thermal event have extremely influenced matura-tion of source rocks of the upper Lower Permian and the Middle and Upper Triassic in the lndo-China epoch. While, the geothermal gradient and the weak tectonic geothermal event of the Early Yanshan Movement provided necessary heat for the maturation of source rock in coal-bearing strata of the Middle and Lower Jurassic.