基于地震与危化品突发事件耦合影响的人员转移安置点设置

通过对目前人员疏散转移安置点设置研究现状和问题及城镇化工园区集约发展安全隐患的分析,提出了突发事件耦合影响下人员转移安置点综合规划的必要性。首先分析了典型危化品园区内突发事件耦合的典型模式、影响特性,并基于突发事件耦合特性、影响区域提出了耦合突发事件下人员转移安置点规划的安全性、可达性、适宜性的14个关键影响因素,给出了各指标量化的标准。基于加权灰色关联法和事故影响评估方法,提出了一套安置点适宜性评估筛选、新增安置点规划的方法,给出了安置点规划的流程。利用改进的Voronoi图方法确定安置点的覆盖半径和责任服务区,进行安置点容量与责任区内核密度人口容量的对比分析,以确定安置点人口容量缺口。结合安置点可达性、安全性、适宜性进行叠加划分,确定新增安置点规划位置。最后以某区示范应用,阐述其规划应用方法和流程。以区域内安置点最大全覆盖原则,得到了在地震灾害影响下城镇人员可能受危化品泄漏威胁区域,以及区域安置点的缺口及规划方案。

二叠-三叠纪东特提斯地区古地理、古气候和古海洋演化与地球表层多圈层事件耦合

通过对东特提斯地区二叠纪栖霞期和吴家坪期、三叠纪安尼期和诺利期古地理、古气候和古海洋环流再造,研究了二叠-三叠纪岩石圈（古地理）-水圈（古海洋）-大气圈（古气候）的相互联系、相互作用及其演化.研究表明,特提斯地区二叠-三叠纪古地理变化和联合古大陆的整体北移,导致了全球古洋流格局的重大调整;而古地理的变化和古洋流格局的调整可能是将二叠-三叠纪巨型季风气候体系推向高潮的关键因素.

松耦合事件机理与实现

针对分布式系统中信息变化消息的通知问题,研究了松耦合事件在COM+对象之间通讯的方式,分析了松耦合事件的实现机理和架构,提出了松耦合事件系统"推"的消息通知方式,解决了"拉"方式中存在的时间浪费和时间延迟问题,给出了松耦合事件在VisualC++6.0中的实现方法,认为松耦合事件对于建立高质量的分布式应用系统具有重要作用。

浅析重大耦合突发事件大规模人员转移安置技术研究进展

城镇突发事件通常伴随一系列次生衍生灾害,具有群发性和连锁性的特征。城市作为人口高度聚集的场所,减少人员伤亡应是灾害应急管理的首要目标。当重大灾难性突发事件发生时,在短时间内安全地大范围疏散转移高密集人群,合理规划安置点,实施科学的应急救灾策略,是减少灾害(事故)后果严重性的重要措施之一。该文就重大突发事件危险识别及大规模人员转移安置技术的相关技术手段进行了综述。现有的研究成果主要针对单一灾种,考虑多灾种因素的较少,评估及疏散模型的研究也多基于框架、定性研究,定量研究的方法及应用较少。研究城市多灾种时空耦合的模拟分析技术,并对各种灾害复杂次生衍生和相互耦合下的城市脆弱性进行分析,综合评估城市灾害风险,辨识和加强城市的安全保障能力,是实现城市安全保障的重大基础需求。

COM+松散耦合事件系统的研究与应用

Windows 2000的事件传递机制采用了COM+ 松散耦合事件系统，它提供了一种异步信息传递机制，适用于大型多层分布式环境。文章分析了松散耦合事件系统的实现机制，并提出了具体应用模型。

平流层强、弱极涡事件的演变过程及其对我国冬季天气的影响

本文利用1979-2010年的NCEP再分析资料，通过北半球环状模NAM指数挑选出的强、弱极涡个例，分析了北半球平流层异常变化过程中行星波的演变以及与之相联系的我国天气的变化特征。结果表明，在强极涡事件前，行星波1波会被反射回对流层，极地波导减弱，低纬波导增强，中高纬地区的E—P通量矢量有着从平流层传播到对流层的趋势；强极涡事件后，极地波导增强，低纬波导减弱。在弱极涡事件前，中、高纬度行星波1波沿着极地波导的传播明显增强；弱极涡事件后，极地波导明显减弱。与此对应的我国天气也有明显变化，在强极涡事件前，我国大部分地区温度偏低，南方地区偏湿而新疆西北部和云南西部地区偏干；在强极涡事件后，东亚冬季风进一步增强，冷空气加强南下，南方地区可降水量减少，新疆西北部仍然偏干，而云南大部分地区可将水量增加。在弱极涡事件前，东亚冬季风显著增强，使我国气温偏冷，降水减少，而弱极涡事件后，我国气温明显回升，中、东部地区和新疆西北部地区降水明显增加。

基于灾害演化网络的灾害裂痕分析方法研究

考虑到某一灾害事件可能会由多种源发灾害事件相互耦合作用造成,且次生灾害事件的演化过程可显著反映出整个灾害事件演化情况,通过引入"初始灾害事件"、"耦合灾害事件"等概念,并基于灾害演化网络,提出了灾害裂痕分析方法,进一步将该方法应用于2008年汶川8.0级地震灾害演化的分析中,从灾害裂痕范围和灾害裂纹深度两个维度分析了灾害演化的机理及其整体情况,最后总结出灾害裂痕分析方法的作用及意义,对开展防灾减灾及应急处置等工作起到一定的指导作用。

A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism

A debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debrisflow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale.This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow.To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model,a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region.Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism,a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established.In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method,the Sichuan province,China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9,2013 were taken as the study case.According to debris flow disaster data on July 9,2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province,there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred.The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event.Among these,43 towns including 204 debrisflow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed.The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of thisforecast model were 23% and 19%,respectively.The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods.

电网信息物理系统运行中信息-物理交互机理探索

为揭示电网信息物理系统（power grid cyber-physical systems,PGCPS）运行机制,对其系统运行过程中信息空间与电网物理系统之间的信息-物理交互机理开展了探索性研究。首先,从信息-物理交互拓扑、离散信息状态与连续电力过程的相互驱动、PGCPS系统运行状态的演化等层面剖析信息空间与电网物理系统交互特性,并提出了考虑离散信息状态与连续电力过程融合的信息-物理耦合事件概念;进而,构建基于信息-物理交互特性的信息-物理交互机理研究框架,以阐释PGCPS系统运行方式以及运行状态的演化过程;最后,探讨了信息-物理交互机理分析涉及的若干关键技术,并展望其在PGCPS分析与控制领域的应用前景。

ENSO Variability Simulated by a Coupled General Circulation Model:ECHAM5/MPI-OM

The accurate simulation of the equatorial sea surlhce temperature （SST） variability is crucial for a proper representation or prediction of the El Nino-Southern Os- cillation （ENSO）. This paper describes the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute （MPI） forr meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model （CGCM）. A control simulation with pre-industrial greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as SST, is compared with observa- tions. Results from the 400-yr control simulation show that the model＇s ENSO variability is quite realistic in terms of structure, strength, and period. Also, two related features （the annual cycle of SST and the-phase locking of ENSO events）, which are significant in determining the model＇s performance of realistic ENSO prediction, are further validated to be well reproduced by the MPI cli mate model, which is an atmospheric model ECHAM5 （which fuses the EC tbr European Center and HAM for Hamburg） coupled to an MPI ocean model （MPI-OM）, ECHAMS/MPI-OM.

Numerical simulation on fault water-inrush based on fluid-solid coupling theory

About 75% water-inrush accidents in China are caused by geological structure such as faults, therefore, it is necessary to investigate the water-inrush mechanism of faults to provide references for the mining activity above confined water. In this paper, based on the fluid-solid coupling theory, we built the stress-seepage coupling model for rock, then we combined with an example of water-inrush caused by fault, studied the water-inrush mechanism by using the numerical software COMSOL Mutiphysics, analyzed the change rule of shear stress, vertical stress, plastic area and water pressure for stope with a fault, and estimated the water-inrush risk at the different distances between working faces and the fault. The numerical simula- tion results indicate that： （1） the water-inrush risk will grow as the decrease of the distance between working face and the fault; （2） the failure mode of the rock in floor with fault is shear failure; （3） the rock between water-containing fault and working face failure is the reason for water-inrush.

Surface Soil Moisture Simulation for a Typical Torrential Event with a Modified Noah LSM Coupling to the NWP Model

Surface soil moisture has great impact on both meso-and microscale atmospheric processes,especially on severe local convection processes and on the dynamics of short-lived torrential rains.To promote the performance of the land surface model (LSM) in surface soil moisture simulations,a hybrid hydrologic runoff parameterization scheme based upon the essential modeling theories of the Xin'anjiang model and Topography based hydrological Model (TOPMODEL) was developed in preference to the simple water balance model (SWB) in the Noah LSM.Using a strategy for coupling and integrating this modified Noah LSM to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) analogous to that used with the standard Noah LSM,a simulation of atmosphere-land surface interactions for a torrential event during 2007 in Shandong was attempted.The results suggested that the surface,10-cm depth soil moisture simulated by GRAPES using the modified hydrologic approach agrees well with the observations.Improvements from the simulated results were found,especially over eastern Shandong.The simulated results,compared with the products of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) soil moisture datasets,indicated a consistent spatial pattern over all of China.The temporal variation of surface soil moisture was validated with the data at an observation station,also demonstrated that GRAPES with modified Noah LSM exhibits a more reasonable response to precipitation events,even though biases and systematic trends may still exist.

祁连山东段0.83Ma以来的构造-气候事件

根据祁连山北麓季风西北边缘区的河流阶地系列和风成黄土的研究,重建了该区中更新世以来的构造隆升和气候演化历史.研究发现,中更新世以来青藏高原的数次隆升事件与本研究区及其他地区的气候记录有一定的耦合性,发生于0.83和0.14Ma的构造事件,可以分别与0.64 Ma时沙漠的显著扩张及沙漠周期性进退的开始、末次冰期以来中国西北的极端干旱相对应.这些构造-气候耦合事件可能暗示了构造隆升对气候的驱动。

应用随机数渐近线分布法评估飞机飞行安全

严重纵向人机耦合事件是公认的危及飞行安全问题 ,出现概率一般为 10 -6.若采用传统的频率统计法进行趋势预测 ,需要的样本数大于 10 7个 ,工程实际中是无法实现的 .为此 ,文中提出了有效的随机数渐近线分布法对其进行评估 .

On the “spring predictability barrier” for strong El Nio events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system

Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure, which cause a significant SPB and yield a much larger prediction error. These results suggest that the forecast skill of the ICM EPS for strong El Nio events could be greatly enhanced by using the NFSV-like tendency error to correct the model.

The IOCAS intermediate coupled model(IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015–2016 El Nio event

The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nifio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time E1 Nifio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the inten- sity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model （ICM） is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IOCAS）, named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temper- ature （SST） evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 E! Nifio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer （Te） is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model＇s ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in E1 Nifio- Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and pre- dicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predictecl to occur in rote spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.

The role of nonlinearities associated with air-sea coupling processes in El Nino's peak-phase locking

We use conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） to investigate the optimal precursory disturbances in the Zebiak- Cane El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） model. The conditions of the CNOP-type precursors are highly likely to evolve into El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model. By exploring the dynamic behaviors of these nonlinear El Nino events caused by the CNOP-type precursors, we find that they, as expected, tend to phase-lock to the annual cycles in the Zebiak-Cane model with the SSTA peak at the end of a calendar year. However, E1 Nino events with CNOPs as initial anomalies in the linearized Zebiak-Cane model are inclined to phase-lock earlier than nonlinear E1 Nino events despite the existence of annual cycles in the model. It is clear that nonlinearities play an important role in El Nino＇s phase-locking. In particular, nonlinear temperature advection increases anomalous zonal SST differences and anomalous westerlies, which weakens anomalous upwelling and acts on the increasing anomalous vertical temperature difference and, as a result, enhances E1 Nino and then delays the peak SSTA. Finally, we demonstrate that nonlinear temperature advection, together with the effect of the annual cycle, causes El Nino events to peak at the end of the calendar year.

A possible bias of simulating the post-2000 changing ENSO

Since the late 1990s, a climate shift has occurred over the tropical Pacific that is characterized with a La Nifia-like mean state. Coincident with this climate shift, climate models＇ skills in predicting the El Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events in the 2000s are sig- nificantly lower than in the 1980s-1990s, A common bias is likely to exist in contemporary ENSO models that got amplified after the climate shift. In this study, we identify this model bias to be the wind-sea surface temperature coupling processes over the tropical Pacific. Evidence is presented to show that this coupling process experienced an obvious shift around year 2000 in its coupling strength and coupling center. A simple ENSO coupled model is used to demonstrate that the changing properties of the post-2000 ENSO events can be more realistically simulated if this model bias is alleviated.