The neon flying squid （Ommastrephes bartramii） is a short-lived opporttmistic species widely distributed in subtropical and temperate waters in the North Pacific Ocean. The life cycle of O. bartramii from planktonic...The neon flying squid （Ommastrephes bartramii） is a short-lived opporttmistic species widely distributed in subtropical and temperate waters in the North Pacific Ocean. The life cycle of O. bartramii from planktonic eggs to nektonic adults is closely linked to oceanographic conditions. The fluctuations in O. bartramii abundance and distribution tend to increase and widen continu- ously due to the heavy influences of ocean-climate events on various spatio-temporal scales. In this study, we reviewed the interac- tion between O. bartramii and oceanography variability in the North Pacific with respect to large-scale climatic-oceanic phenomena including E1 Nifio, La Nifia, Kuroshio, Oyashio and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, as well as regional environmental variables such as sea surface temperature （SST）, sea surface height （SSH）, sea surface salinity （SSS）, chlorophyll-a （Chl-a） concentration, and plankton density. The population dynamics of O. bartramii is mediated mainly by meso- and large-scale climatic-oceanic events （e.g., Kuroshio and Oyashio Currents） rather than other local environmental conditions （e.g., SST and Chl-a concentration）, because all of the oceanographic influences are imposed on the context of large-scale climate changes （e.g., PDO）. An unstructured-grid finite- volume coastal ocean model coupled with an individual-based model is proposed to simulate relevant physical-biological oceano- graphic processes for identifying ocean-climate influence and predicting O. bartramii distribution and abundance in the North Pacific. Future research needs to be focused on improving the knowledge about early life history of O. bartramii and evaluating the relation- ship between marine physical environment and two separate passive drifting life stages of O. bartramii including free-floating eggs and planktonic paralarvae.展开更多
Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a r...Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a rational decision process to supersede decision choices based only on a gut feeling. After assessing probabilities the decision maker can confirm or reverse a gut feeling choice using expected values for each available act and traditional decision theory methodology. A simple example involving a buy now or buy later situation with market uncertainty illustrates the process for typical yes or no decisions.展开更多
In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 s...In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 saw non-stop progress in China and US trade and economic ties. The China-US interdependent and complementary economic and trade connections ensure that bilateral relations are constantly developing and merging following their interdependent paths;the global challenges, such as the financial crisis and recent extreme weather events, have allowed China and the US to be in the same boat,weathering these different forms of turbulence. Decisions on important domestic policies and disputes can now be discussed earlier and effectively following on from the construction of multi-dimensional crisis management mechanisms. But undeniably there are unsettled and conflicting points in their relations, such as the fact that the US strategically excludes China from its free trade agenda, not willing to accept many everyday items manufactured by China. This is a major obstacle preventing their relationships deepening. History tells us, in future, if both sides could have a bigger vision, relations would better develop, for the new type of major power relations and the subsequent road would be less rocky and bring more benefits for the peoples of both countries.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National High-Tech R&D Program(863 Program)of China(2012AA092303)the Project of Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation(12231203900)+3 种基金the Industrialization Program of National Development and Reform Commission(2159999)the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(2013BAD13B00)the Shanghai Universities First-Class Disciplines Project(Fisheries A)the Funding Program for Outstanding Dissertations in Shanghai Ocean University
文摘The neon flying squid （Ommastrephes bartramii） is a short-lived opporttmistic species widely distributed in subtropical and temperate waters in the North Pacific Ocean. The life cycle of O. bartramii from planktonic eggs to nektonic adults is closely linked to oceanographic conditions. The fluctuations in O. bartramii abundance and distribution tend to increase and widen continu- ously due to the heavy influences of ocean-climate events on various spatio-temporal scales. In this study, we reviewed the interac- tion between O. bartramii and oceanography variability in the North Pacific with respect to large-scale climatic-oceanic phenomena including E1 Nifio, La Nifia, Kuroshio, Oyashio and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, as well as regional environmental variables such as sea surface temperature （SST）, sea surface height （SSH）, sea surface salinity （SSS）, chlorophyll-a （Chl-a） concentration, and plankton density. The population dynamics of O. bartramii is mediated mainly by meso- and large-scale climatic-oceanic events （e.g., Kuroshio and Oyashio Currents） rather than other local environmental conditions （e.g., SST and Chl-a concentration）, because all of the oceanographic influences are imposed on the context of large-scale climate changes （e.g., PDO）. An unstructured-grid finite- volume coastal ocean model coupled with an individual-based model is proposed to simulate relevant physical-biological oceano- graphic processes for identifying ocean-climate influence and predicting O. bartramii distribution and abundance in the North Pacific. Future research needs to be focused on improving the knowledge about early life history of O. bartramii and evaluating the relation- ship between marine physical environment and two separate passive drifting life stages of O. bartramii including free-floating eggs and planktonic paralarvae.
文摘Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a rational decision process to supersede decision choices based only on a gut feeling. After assessing probabilities the decision maker can confirm or reverse a gut feeling choice using expected values for each available act and traditional decision theory methodology. A simple example involving a buy now or buy later situation with market uncertainty illustrates the process for typical yes or no decisions.
文摘In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 saw non-stop progress in China and US trade and economic ties. The China-US interdependent and complementary economic and trade connections ensure that bilateral relations are constantly developing and merging following their interdependent paths;the global challenges, such as the financial crisis and recent extreme weather events, have allowed China and the US to be in the same boat,weathering these different forms of turbulence. Decisions on important domestic policies and disputes can now be discussed earlier and effectively following on from the construction of multi-dimensional crisis management mechanisms. But undeniably there are unsettled and conflicting points in their relations, such as the fact that the US strategically excludes China from its free trade agenda, not willing to accept many everyday items manufactured by China. This is a major obstacle preventing their relationships deepening. History tells us, in future, if both sides could have a bigger vision, relations would better develop, for the new type of major power relations and the subsequent road would be less rocky and bring more benefits for the peoples of both countries.
