This paper presents the Bayes estimation and empirical Bayes estimation of causal effects in a counterfactual model. It also gives three kinds of prior distribution of the assumptions of replaceability. The experiment...This paper presents the Bayes estimation and empirical Bayes estimation of causal effects in a counterfactual model. It also gives three kinds of prior distribution of the assumptions of replaceability. The experiment shows that empirical Bayes estimation is better than other estimations when not knowing which assumption is true.展开更多
China＇s 2012 leadership change revealed signs of factional divide at the top level. The elitist/princeling faction has outnumbered the populist faction. Princelings have better and stronger ties with the military, wh...China＇s 2012 leadership change revealed signs of factional divide at the top level. The elitist/princeling faction has outnumbered the populist faction. Princelings have better and stronger ties with the military, which tends to have a more hawkish view regarding any potential Taiwan independence. In Taiwan, changing social experiences have created a new Taiwan Residents identity, which is dif- ferent from that of the Chinese. People in Taiwan are increasingly thinking of themselves as Taiwan Residents instead of Chinese. On the mainland, Chinese popular nationalism has been on the rise, as anti-Taiwan independence remains one of the most nationalistic issues. When the forces of new identity and nationalism meet each other, a diverging path regarding the future of Taiwan is being created. Moreover, China＇s economic and military power continues to rise, giving China more confidence. I argue that the overall effect is that China＇s new leadership will increasingly have the capability to act tougher against any potential Taiwan Residents independence. The potential need to act tougher with Taiwan may be beyond the desire and control of Chinese elites due to the rise of popular nationalism in China and the leadership＇s need to maintain internal legitimacy and survival.展开更多
文摘This paper presents the Bayes estimation and empirical Bayes estimation of causal effects in a counterfactual model. It also gives three kinds of prior distribution of the assumptions of replaceability. The experiment shows that empirical Bayes estimation is better than other estimations when not knowing which assumption is true.
文摘China＇s 2012 leadership change revealed signs of factional divide at the top level. The elitist/princeling faction has outnumbered the populist faction. Princelings have better and stronger ties with the military, which tends to have a more hawkish view regarding any potential Taiwan independence. In Taiwan, changing social experiences have created a new Taiwan Residents identity, which is dif- ferent from that of the Chinese. People in Taiwan are increasingly thinking of themselves as Taiwan Residents instead of Chinese. On the mainland, Chinese popular nationalism has been on the rise, as anti-Taiwan independence remains one of the most nationalistic issues. When the forces of new identity and nationalism meet each other, a diverging path regarding the future of Taiwan is being created. Moreover, China＇s economic and military power continues to rise, giving China more confidence. I argue that the overall effect is that China＇s new leadership will increasingly have the capability to act tougher against any potential Taiwan Residents independence. The potential need to act tougher with Taiwan may be beyond the desire and control of Chinese elites due to the rise of popular nationalism in China and the leadership＇s need to maintain internal legitimacy and survival.
