In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackl...In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackled by the NB component）, unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation （captured by the CAR process）, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic （AADT） per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.展开更多
This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet. Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NURE...This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet. Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NUREG1150 probabilistic risk study,are briefly reviewed in terms of their relevance to extreme accidents arising from seismic and other severe accident initiators. Specific characteristic about the nature of severe accidents in nuclear power plant (NPP) are reviewed along with present day state-of-art analysis methodologies (methods for estimation of leakages and consequences of releases (MELCOR) and MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS)) that are used to evaluate severe accidents and to optimize mitigative and protective actions against such accidents. It is the aim of this paper to make nuclear operating nations aware of the risks that accompany a much needed energy resource and to identify some of the tools,techniques and landmark safety studies that serve to make the technology safer and to maintain vigilance and adequate safety culture for the responsible management of this valuable but unforgiving technology.展开更多
The paper conducts analysis on the causes of dangerous goods road transportation accidents by applying analytic technique of security system science - Event Tree Analysis （ETA）. By computing minimum cut and minimal ...The paper conducts analysis on the causes of dangerous goods road transportation accidents by applying analytic technique of security system science - Event Tree Analysis （ETA）. By computing minimum cut and minimal path set of event tree and the important level of elementary event, the paper elicits the results that the factors of causing road transportation accident are multiple and its hazard is great while the paper also elicits the sorting of structural important level of elementary event. The paper offers the security countermeasures for dangerous goods road transportation which plays a vital role in safeguarding dangerous goods road transportation security.展开更多
To generate dynamic planning for coal mine safety investment, this study applies system dynamics to decision-making, classifying safety investments by accident type. It validates the relationship between safety invest...To generate dynamic planning for coal mine safety investment, this study applies system dynamics to decision-making, classifying safety investments by accident type. It validates the relationship between safety investments and accident cost, by structurally analyzing the causality between safety investments and their influence factors. Our simulation model, based on Vensim software, conducts simulation analysis on a series of actual data from a coalmine in Shanxi Province. Our results indicate a lag phase in safety investments, and that increasing pre-phase safety investment reduces accident costs. We found that a 24% increase in initial safety investment could help reach the target accident costs level 14 months earlier. Our simulation test included nine kinds of variation trends of accident costs brought by different investment ratios on accident prevention. We found an optimized ratio of accident prevention investments allowing a mine to reach accident cost goals 4 months earlier, without changing its total investment.展开更多
Compared with roundabouts the main advantages of turbo-roundabouts are the reduction in the number of potential conflicting points and the lower speed of vehicles passing through the intersection, they both can improv...Compared with roundabouts the main advantages of turbo-roundabouts are the reduction in the number of potential conflicting points and the lower speed of vehicles passing through the intersection, they both can improve safety conditions at the .junction. Moreover, the physical delimitation among lanes limits the side-by-side accident risk. These aspects make turbo-roundabouts more appropriate than roundabouts when a higher level of safety has to be guaranteed, particularly in presence of relevant pedestrian and two-wheels traffic volumes. The present paper has three main objectives： （1） to discuss general design criteria and functional principles of turbo roundabouts, （2） to give the geometric design principles of the central island and circulating lanes and （3） to present three case studies from real world concerning the conversion of existing roundabouts into turbo roundabouts.展开更多
Charles Dickens rose to fame as a novelist because he described society in early Victorian Britain both accurately and evocatively. That skill came about through his work as a journalist, and his many first-hand exper...Charles Dickens rose to fame as a novelist because he described society in early Victorian Britain both accurately and evocatively. That skill came about through his work as a journalist, and his many first-hand experiences of events. He continued throughout his life to report on major incidents and newsworthy items, and was able to use those reports as the factual basis of his novels. His experiences of the railways were especially important, and he made great use of them in his novels such as Dombey and Son. Later expereiences included his own involvement in a railway disaster, at Staplehurst in 1865, a major trauma which led him to include the accident at the end of Our Mutual Friend, and led him to write a timely ghost story, The Signalman. No doubt he would have used more such reports had he lived to fulfill his ambitions.展开更多
This paper, as a part of a larger research project entitled Amazon. Realities in the Novels and the Imaginary Reports of Travelers, focuses on the following objectives： （1） the ＂referentiality＂ of the text to the...This paper, as a part of a larger research project entitled Amazon. Realities in the Novels and the Imaginary Reports of Travelers, focuses on the following objectives： （1） the ＂referentiality＂ of the text to the external world （goal, empirical stuff）; and （2） understanding fictionality in terms of＂make-believe＂ and the principle of＂internal coherence＂. The main section sets out the theoretical foundation of the relation between facts/events and fiction, both as pragmatic and fictional texts. Then, the paper investigates in which forms and ways existing facts, data, occurrences, events and narratives in various kinds of texts constitute a representation and interpretation of the world. The central focus of the study is on the Amazon region. The study is an experiment in joining together different types of texts around the notion of＂referentiality＂; emphasizing reference to the external world （factuality）, the reading of the component elements of a language and a discourse （narratology）, historical reading against the horizon of expectation （reception theory） and the interpretation of the retrospective.展开更多
Regarding the postulate of traffic infrastructure and vehicles, much attention should be given to the effect of road conditions on accidents. With large numbers of traffic accidents on Shenda Freeway, Liaoning Provinc...Regarding the postulate of traffic infrastructure and vehicles, much attention should be given to the effect of road conditions on accidents. With large numbers of traffic accidents on Shenda Freeway, Liaoning Province, Harbin City and others in P. R. China, parameters and the effect of accidents caused by horizontal alignment, vertical alignment, cross section and intersection are studied systematically The disciplinary analysis of these effects are presented in this paper. The viewpoint is acknowledged that high sub grade and steep slopes are against traffic safety, which is common and ignored in high-usage highways in China. Design parameters of the current design criteria and the corresponding countermeasures are suggested for safety on our highways.展开更多
This paper attempts to relate serendipity, the natural ability to make interesting or valuable discoveries by accident （Longman Discovery of Contemporary English） with notable discoveries and inventions. It connotes...This paper attempts to relate serendipity, the natural ability to make interesting or valuable discoveries by accident （Longman Discovery of Contemporary English） with notable discoveries and inventions. It connotes the profound ability of finding out valuable things different from those who have been exploring by spending a lot of time or for years. The author will illustrate as many cases as possible within a given time constraint, so that surrounding environments and situations may be clarified, and such discoveries and inventions may be plausibly accomplished by accident or with rich reasons. These illustrations include historical as well as more recent cases. One of the cases is beyond the scope of our environment on the earth with preconceived notion, while other cases have given great impacts to our politics and also military intelligence. It should be noted that business and technological intelligence are deeply connected with discoveries, inventions and serendipity. In concluding remarks, the essence of serendipity will be summarized and how to side with the serendipity at the most important moment will be examined by viewing time series endeavors of the inventors and those who have devoted much time to discoveries.展开更多
In Germany, Japan and in the Taiwan Region of our country, there is the long-standing debate about the joint negligence crime, and in the mainland of China, there are many scholars having discussed, but because the pr...In Germany, Japan and in the Taiwan Region of our country, there is the long-standing debate about the joint negligence crime, and in the mainland of China, there are many scholars having discussed, but because the provisions on the joint crimes in the criminal law of our country exclude the joint negligence, the relevant discussions are not very sufficient. This paper talks about the views on the relevant issues of the joint negligence crimes, with the provisions on the traffic accident accomplice in the ＂Explanation of several issues concerning the specific application of law in the trial of criminal cases of traffic accidents＂ by the Supreme People＇s Court in 2000 as the starting point, in recognition of the negligent offender, the author further analyzes the constitution of the concept, in order to more clearly define the instigator of the negligent offender.展开更多
About 75% water-inrush accidents in China are caused by geological structure such as faults, therefore, it is necessary to investigate the water-inrush mechanism of faults to provide references for the mining activity...About 75% water-inrush accidents in China are caused by geological structure such as faults, therefore, it is necessary to investigate the water-inrush mechanism of faults to provide references for the mining activity above confined water. In this paper, based on the fluid-solid coupling theory, we built the stress-seepage coupling model for rock, then we combined with an example of water-inrush caused by fault, studied the water-inrush mechanism by using the numerical software COMSOL Mutiphysics, analyzed the change rule of shear stress, vertical stress, plastic area and water pressure for stope with a fault, and estimated the water-inrush risk at the different distances between working faces and the fault. The numerical simula- tion results indicate that： （1） the water-inrush risk will grow as the decrease of the distance between working face and the fault; （2） the failure mode of the rock in floor with fault is shear failure; （3） the rock between water-containing fault and working face failure is the reason for water-inrush.展开更多
Fennovoima is planning to build a new nuclear power plant unit-Hanhikivi 1, on a greenfield site in Northern Finland. A nearby maritime oil spill accident is one of the external events analysed in the probabilistic ri...Fennovoima is planning to build a new nuclear power plant unit-Hanhikivi 1, on a greenfield site in Northern Finland. A nearby maritime oil spill accident is one of the external events analysed in the probabilistic risk assessment of the plant. In the worst case, the oil could cause a loss of the ultimate heat sink by blocking the sea water intake screens. By considering the maritime traffic, oil transport and oil spill accident data in the Baltic Sea area, the annual probabilities of nearby, significant oil spills are evaluated. Event tree analysis is used to evaluate the probability that significant amount of oil enters the plant intake tunnel. The spill behaviour is considered, including oil spreading, dissolution, dispersion and movement due to wind and currents. In addition, oil combat measures including the use ofoil booms and skimmers are evaluated.展开更多
基金The National Science Foundation by Changjiang Scholarship of Ministry of Education of China(No.BCS-0527508)the Joint Research Fund for Overseas Natural Science of China(No.51250110075)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.SBK200910046)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.0901005C)
文摘In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackled by the NB component）, unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation （captured by the CAR process）, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic （AADT） per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.
文摘This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet. Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NUREG1150 probabilistic risk study,are briefly reviewed in terms of their relevance to extreme accidents arising from seismic and other severe accident initiators. Specific characteristic about the nature of severe accidents in nuclear power plant (NPP) are reviewed along with present day state-of-art analysis methodologies (methods for estimation of leakages and consequences of releases (MELCOR) and MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS)) that are used to evaluate severe accidents and to optimize mitigative and protective actions against such accidents. It is the aim of this paper to make nuclear operating nations aware of the risks that accompany a much needed energy resource and to identify some of the tools,techniques and landmark safety studies that serve to make the technology safer and to maintain vigilance and adequate safety culture for the responsible management of this valuable but unforgiving technology.
文摘The paper conducts analysis on the causes of dangerous goods road transportation accidents by applying analytic technique of security system science - Event Tree Analysis （ETA）. By computing minimum cut and minimal path set of event tree and the important level of elementary event, the paper elicits the results that the factors of causing road transportation accident are multiple and its hazard is great while the paper also elicits the sorting of structural important level of elementary event. The paper offers the security countermeasures for dangerous goods road transportation which plays a vital role in safeguarding dangerous goods road transportation security.
基金financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51174214)
文摘To generate dynamic planning for coal mine safety investment, this study applies system dynamics to decision-making, classifying safety investments by accident type. It validates the relationship between safety investments and accident cost, by structurally analyzing the causality between safety investments and their influence factors. Our simulation model, based on Vensim software, conducts simulation analysis on a series of actual data from a coalmine in Shanxi Province. Our results indicate a lag phase in safety investments, and that increasing pre-phase safety investment reduces accident costs. We found that a 24% increase in initial safety investment could help reach the target accident costs level 14 months earlier. Our simulation test included nine kinds of variation trends of accident costs brought by different investment ratios on accident prevention. We found an optimized ratio of accident prevention investments allowing a mine to reach accident cost goals 4 months earlier, without changing its total investment.
文摘Compared with roundabouts the main advantages of turbo-roundabouts are the reduction in the number of potential conflicting points and the lower speed of vehicles passing through the intersection, they both can improve safety conditions at the .junction. Moreover, the physical delimitation among lanes limits the side-by-side accident risk. These aspects make turbo-roundabouts more appropriate than roundabouts when a higher level of safety has to be guaranteed, particularly in presence of relevant pedestrian and two-wheels traffic volumes. The present paper has three main objectives： （1） to discuss general design criteria and functional principles of turbo roundabouts, （2） to give the geometric design principles of the central island and circulating lanes and （3） to present three case studies from real world concerning the conversion of existing roundabouts into turbo roundabouts.
文摘Charles Dickens rose to fame as a novelist because he described society in early Victorian Britain both accurately and evocatively. That skill came about through his work as a journalist, and his many first-hand experiences of events. He continued throughout his life to report on major incidents and newsworthy items, and was able to use those reports as the factual basis of his novels. His experiences of the railways were especially important, and he made great use of them in his novels such as Dombey and Son. Later expereiences included his own involvement in a railway disaster, at Staplehurst in 1865, a major trauma which led him to include the accident at the end of Our Mutual Friend, and led him to write a timely ghost story, The Signalman. No doubt he would have used more such reports had he lived to fulfill his ambitions.
文摘This paper, as a part of a larger research project entitled Amazon. Realities in the Novels and the Imaginary Reports of Travelers, focuses on the following objectives： （1） the ＂referentiality＂ of the text to the external world （goal, empirical stuff）; and （2） understanding fictionality in terms of＂make-believe＂ and the principle of＂internal coherence＂. The main section sets out the theoretical foundation of the relation between facts/events and fiction, both as pragmatic and fictional texts. Then, the paper investigates in which forms and ways existing facts, data, occurrences, events and narratives in various kinds of texts constitute a representation and interpretation of the world. The central focus of the study is on the Amazon region. The study is an experiment in joining together different types of texts around the notion of＂referentiality＂; emphasizing reference to the external world （factuality）, the reading of the component elements of a language and a discourse （narratology）, historical reading against the horizon of expectation （reception theory） and the interpretation of the retrospective.
文摘Regarding the postulate of traffic infrastructure and vehicles, much attention should be given to the effect of road conditions on accidents. With large numbers of traffic accidents on Shenda Freeway, Liaoning Province, Harbin City and others in P. R. China, parameters and the effect of accidents caused by horizontal alignment, vertical alignment, cross section and intersection are studied systematically The disciplinary analysis of these effects are presented in this paper. The viewpoint is acknowledged that high sub grade and steep slopes are against traffic safety, which is common and ignored in high-usage highways in China. Design parameters of the current design criteria and the corresponding countermeasures are suggested for safety on our highways.
文摘This paper attempts to relate serendipity, the natural ability to make interesting or valuable discoveries by accident （Longman Discovery of Contemporary English） with notable discoveries and inventions. It connotes the profound ability of finding out valuable things different from those who have been exploring by spending a lot of time or for years. The author will illustrate as many cases as possible within a given time constraint, so that surrounding environments and situations may be clarified, and such discoveries and inventions may be plausibly accomplished by accident or with rich reasons. These illustrations include historical as well as more recent cases. One of the cases is beyond the scope of our environment on the earth with preconceived notion, while other cases have given great impacts to our politics and also military intelligence. It should be noted that business and technological intelligence are deeply connected with discoveries, inventions and serendipity. In concluding remarks, the essence of serendipity will be summarized and how to side with the serendipity at the most important moment will be examined by viewing time series endeavors of the inventors and those who have devoted much time to discoveries.
文摘In Germany, Japan and in the Taiwan Region of our country, there is the long-standing debate about the joint negligence crime, and in the mainland of China, there are many scholars having discussed, but because the provisions on the joint crimes in the criminal law of our country exclude the joint negligence, the relevant discussions are not very sufficient. This paper talks about the views on the relevant issues of the joint negligence crimes, with the provisions on the traffic accident accomplice in the ＂Explanation of several issues concerning the specific application of law in the trial of criminal cases of traffic accidents＂ by the Supreme People＇s Court in 2000 as the starting point, in recognition of the negligent offender, the author further analyzes the constitution of the concept, in order to more clearly define the instigator of the negligent offender.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China （2010CB226800） the National Natural Science Foundation of China （50904065） the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University （NCET-09-0728）
文摘About 75% water-inrush accidents in China are caused by geological structure such as faults, therefore, it is necessary to investigate the water-inrush mechanism of faults to provide references for the mining activity above confined water. In this paper, based on the fluid-solid coupling theory, we built the stress-seepage coupling model for rock, then we combined with an example of water-inrush caused by fault, studied the water-inrush mechanism by using the numerical software COMSOL Mutiphysics, analyzed the change rule of shear stress, vertical stress, plastic area and water pressure for stope with a fault, and estimated the water-inrush risk at the different distances between working faces and the fault. The numerical simula- tion results indicate that： （1） the water-inrush risk will grow as the decrease of the distance between working face and the fault; （2） the failure mode of the rock in floor with fault is shear failure; （3） the rock between water-containing fault and working face failure is the reason for water-inrush.
文摘Fennovoima is planning to build a new nuclear power plant unit-Hanhikivi 1, on a greenfield site in Northern Finland. A nearby maritime oil spill accident is one of the external events analysed in the probabilistic risk assessment of the plant. In the worst case, the oil could cause a loss of the ultimate heat sink by blocking the sea water intake screens. By considering the maritime traffic, oil transport and oil spill accident data in the Baltic Sea area, the annual probabilities of nearby, significant oil spills are evaluated. Event tree analysis is used to evaluate the probability that significant amount of oil enters the plant intake tunnel. The spill behaviour is considered, including oil spreading, dissolution, dispersion and movement due to wind and currents. In addition, oil combat measures including the use ofoil booms and skimmers are evaluated.
