如何由事故年数据计算结案率

目前保监会要求各保险公司每年按事故年制编报赔案件数分析表,因此考虑如何根据事故年赔案数表计算结案率非常重要。文章以数理分析为依据,考虑如何根据事故年数据计算传统结案率r和g结案率rg。结合示例,对其应用性进行了说明。

基于Volterra级数的航空年事故率预测方法

针对当前航空年事故率传统预测精度不高的问题,从分析混沌特性入手,对事故数据重构相空间,构建了航空年事故率预测的Volterra级数模型。对航空年事故率数据进行预处理,采用0-1混沌特性判定方法判断时序的混沌特性;在混沌时序的基础上,应用互信息法和假近邻法确定相空间的参数,重构相空间;基于此,构建二阶Volterra自适应预测模型,并采用NLMS算法实时获取模型的最优参数;最后,应用模型对美国空军飞行事故万时率进行预测,能够将相对误差控制在2%以内,优于传统灰色时序组合预测模型,所建的模型反映了航空装备的安全状况。

宁波市近五年生产安全事故分析

本文收集了宁波市近五年来一般事故以上生产安全事故案例,其中较大事故5起,一般以上事故277起,对事故发生年份分布、区域分布、所在行业、事故类型等进行统计分析,结果表明,宁波市自2016年以来,历年事故起数呈逐年下降趋势;从事故发生地来看,慈溪市(含杭州湾新区)、鄞州区、北仑区(含大榭开发区)等三个区域发生事故占比均超过15%以上,属于事故多发地;从事故发生行业来看,冶金工贸行业事故发生占比最高,达到了88%;从事故发生类型来看,高处坠落、触电、机械伤害、物体打击、起重伤害等五种事故类型发生事故数量占总事故发生数量的80%以上。结合目前形势分析了当前我市安全生产面临的主要问题,并提出相应的安全对策措施。

关于2003年特种设备事故的情况通报

2003年全国特种设备事故总体呈平稳下降态势，没有发生特大事故，事故起数、死亡人数均比2002年有较大幅度下降。现将2003年特种设备事故的情况通报如下：

跨文化交际失误对航空安全的影响——基于特内里费岛机场空难通话语料的分析

该研究旨在探讨跨文化交际失误对航空安全产生的影响。研究以1977年特内里费岛机场空难的通话语料为基础,运用跨文化理论的多维度框架,包括语言行为理论、霍夫斯泰德的跨文化多维度理论及Edward T.Hall的文化理论等,通过案例分析法,深入分析了此次空难语料,探讨了跨文化交际失误如何导致航空沟通失败,进而对航空安全构成严重威胁。研究发现,文化差异常常导致通信误解。因此,研究强调了加强文化敏感培训和跨文化沟通技巧的必要性,以更有效地管理和减轻跨文化交际失误带来的安全风险,以期该研究为提高航空安全水平提供有益的洞见和建议。

公安监管工作的“玉环现象”——对玉环县看守所52年安全无事故的调查与启示

玉环县看守所在实现52年安全无事故特别是在最近几年创建"四型监所"的过程中,探索形成了"六位一体"的公安监所安全管理模式和运行机制,凸显了全面推进勤务改革、向科学勤务要安全,深度应用监管信息、向科技投入要安全,切实维护合法权益、向人权保障要安全,不断优化精细管理、向管教转化要安全,大力整合内外资源、向联动协作要安全,切实严管纪律作风、向队伍建设要安全的基本经验。剖析解读公安监管工作的"玉环现象",玉环县看守所之所以能够创造52年安全无事故的奇迹,这不是偶然的,而是有其文化源头的,同时也为加强公安监管理论研究、加快看守所立法工作、加速公安监管人才培养提供了重要启示。

Game Spirits in the American Youngsters Series--Take Harry Potter and The Hunger Games as Examples

The series of Harry Potter and the series of The Hunger Games are the most frequently mentioned children＇s and youngster＇s stories after The Adventures of Tom Sawyer. Both of them are children＇s and youngster＇s favorite stories. All of them are about children＇s adventures. But because of the time and history, they represent different themes of the time. This research paper aims at analyzing the Game Spirits in the first two. The suspense and surprise, fantastic adventures and time interweaving are shown in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. And the unbelievable background, the lucky number, image of gamble, and the game against humanity are the Game Spirits in The Hunger Games. The purpose of this thesis is to help people better understand Harry Potter and The Hunger Games in the aspect of Game Spirit. Harry Potter is the full of fantastic adventure while The Hunger Game is a story full of survival.

Female Initiation in a Modem Cinderella Story： Gloria Whelan＇s Homeless Bird

Homeless Bird is a 2000 National Book Award novel for young adults by Gloria Whelan. By employing the fairy tale Cinderella as an archetype, Gloria Whelan successfully blends fantasy with realism, building an image of new Cinderella, who is independent, courageous, and full of rebelling spirits in a patriarchal society, thus presenting young readers a more familiar and more acceptable access to the harsh reality. With the theme of female initiation, Koly＇s initiation journey is allegorical which needs to be read as an extended metaphor to exhibit the power of courage and hope in people who determine to take the fate in their own hands.

A Comment on Katherine Mansfield＇s A Dill Pickle

Katherine Mansfield is a world famous woman master of short stories in English literature. Her stories are sensitive revelations of human behaiour in quite ordinary situations, through which we can glimpse a powerful, and sometimes cruelly pessimistic view of life. A Dill Pickle is one of her short stories published in 1917, describing the encounter between a young woman and a young man who have been lovers six years ago and their lost love and changes over the years. Short as it is, it is really worth our earful analysis and appreciation. This paper will comment on this short story from the following two aspects： a commont on the theme of the story; a comment on the writing technique of the story. The paper conludes that romantic love is dependent upon circumstances and the convergence of certain character traits at a particular time.

Informally Established Relations Between the Superior and the Subordinate： Turkey＇s Example

Turkish people display deep consideration for the concept of hierarchy. Historically, they had been always calculating and measuring the relative positions of authority symbols with respect to one another; because they had their own dealings with those who held political power. Should they render their young sons to the service of the feudal lords or the state？ Should they consent to the say of the local forces or that of the central state power, when it comes to fixing the amounts and/or the kinds of taxes？ Sometimes, the ordinary subjects of the Ottoman state were even openly torn apart in dilemmas whereby local powers were revolting against the central government of the Sultan placed at the capitol. Even the anoymous folk tales, which reflect people＇s opinions and mentalities in a manner very close to the truth, involve comparisons among the levels of power represented by certain officials/figures. When confronted with authority, the usual feeling contains a tint of respect, even though it is mainly a kind of resignition mixed with acceptance, leading to obedience in the end. A true, internalized respect itself is solely that which is directed toward the elderly people of the society. On the other hand, traditionally and conventionally, old age was closely associated with official or informal power and authority, anyhow. However, nowadays, in a very confusing manner, this former social understanding is undergoing rather fast changes with the advent of younger contemporary political figures.

Clinical Application of Same-Name Channel Point Selection

The namesake channel point selection is a method adopted in acupuncture treatment, in which the points on the six pairs of channels on the upper and lower extremities with same names are selected and needled. Clinically, this method is mainly used for some acute soft tissue injuries, for instance, needling point Yangchi (TE 4) with reducing method for sprain of external malleolus, needling Qiuxu (GB 40) with reducing method for sprain of dorsal carpus, and needling Tiaokou (ST 38) for lateral shoulder pain. The therapeutic effect given by this point selection method is often superior to that given by the conventional needling method. In clinical practice, the author has found some typical cases, which respond well to this method, and reports them below.

Open reduction and internal fixation for displaced supracondylar fractures of the humerus in children with crossed K-wires via lateral approach

Objective： To assess the therapeutic results of open reduction and internal fixation with crossed K-wires via lateral approach for displaced supracondvlar fractures of the humerus in children. Methods： We prospectively followed 52 children who presented with Gartland type 3 displaced supraeondylar fractures of the humerus and were managed by open reduction and internal fixation with crossed K-wires via lateral approach.There were 37 male and 15 female patients; average age was 7.39 years. The most common mechanism of trauma was fall while playing （n=23）, followed by fall from height （n=20）, road traffic accidents （n-5） and fall from standing height （n=2）. In 2 cases, mode of injury was not available. The mean follow-up was 12 months and patients were assessed according to Flynn＇s criteria. Results： Lateral approach provided an excellent view of the lateral column between two nervous planes and enabled an anatomical reduction in all cases. Immobilizing the elbow at 90 degrees or more of flexion was not needed after cross K-wire fixation. Majority of patients regained full range of motion within 6 weeks of pin removal. Two patients had postoperative ulnar nerve injuries that resolved after pin removal. The common late complication of cubitus varus was not seen in any patient. Delayed presentation to the emergency department, repeated manipulations by bone setters and massage with edible oil were responsible for stiffness in 5 patients. Superficial pin tract infection was noted in 5 patients that resolved with dressings and antibiotics. No deep infection occurred. A detailed clinical examination and radiographic analysis was done at final follow-up. They included measurement of carrying angle and range of movements of both operated and normal sides, and radiographs of both upper limbs for comparison. According to Flynn＇s criteria, 90.4% patients showed satisfactory results. Conclusion： Lateral approach for open reduction and internal fixation of the widely-displaced supracondylar fracture of the humerus is safe and straightforward, ensuring anatomical reduction and excellent function. The approach is easy and familiar to most orthopedic surgeons in our setup.

Road crash in China from 2003 to 2005

Objective： To analyze characteristics and causes of road crash and injuries in China from 2003 to 2005. Methods： The data of road crash in 2003-2005 were collected to study the characteristics including total vehicle number, occurrence rates of traffic accidents and serious traffic accidents so as to discuss the causes and characteristics of road crash in China. Results： From 2003 to 2005, the numbers of traffic accidents, injuries and deaths as well as the mortality rates per 100 000 persons and per 10 000 vehicles declined in China. Until 2005, the total number of traffic accidents decreased to 450 000 and deaths to 99 000, with the mortality rate per 10 000 vehicles being 7.6 persons. While the drivers and passengers accounted for 33.2 % and 26.6 % of death casualties respectively in 2005. Most traffic accidents were caused by drivers, especially those with driving experience less than 3 years. Traffic accidents occurred on suburban roads accounted for 60%. The mortality rate of the traffic accidents per 100 km on the first grade road ranked the highest. The mortality rate of the traffic accidents on expressways ranked the highest, with continual increase of death and injury. Conclusions. At present, the increase trend of traffic accidents and casualties in China has been slowed down to some extent and shows a declining tendency, but the situation is far away from being optimistic. In order to cut down the number of traffic accidents and casualties, we should pay more attention to training and managing drivers with less than three driving years and those driving buses. Strict prevention measures should be laid on traffic accidents on first grade roads, expressways and suburban roads as well as the enhancement on improving first-aid system.

Educational level and age as contributing factors to road traffic accidents

Objective： This research analyzes data on road traffic accidents （RTA） in Fars province, whose roads are among the highly dangerous ones in Iran. It inves- tigates educational level and age involved in RTA in order to discover patterns that can prevent or decrease accidents. Methods： This research made use of data visualization techniques to find hidden patterns. The data included mor- tality rate related to RTA in Fars province and were obtained from Fars Forensic Medicine Registry covering a period of 1 year from March 21, 2010 to March 21, 2011. All data were analyzed using SPSS 11.5. The results were reported as de- scriptive indices such as frequency （percentage）. The Chi- square test was applied to the data concerning educational level and age. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results： In the mentioned period, 1 831 people were killed, out of whom un/lowly educated people （69.6%） ac- counted for the highest mortality rate. The significant rela- tionship between educational level and mortality rate was found （X2=275.98, P〈0.0001）. Also three was a significant association between age and mortality rate （X2=371.20, P〈0.0001）. Young people （age between 20 and 29 years） contribute to higher RTA mortality rate compared with other age groups. Conclusion： The educational level and age are signifi- cantly correlated to mortality rate. The youth and un/lowly educated people suffer more fatal RTA.

Effect of environment on extremely severe road traffic crashes: retrospective epidemic analysis during 2000-2001

Objective: To make an epidemiological analysis of the effect of environment on extremely severe road traffic crashes (RTCs). Methods: Epidemiologic data of extremely severe RTCs associated with environmental factors, including weather, topography, road conditions and other traffic conditions in China's Mainland during 2000-2001, were collected and analyzed. Results: (1) During 2000-2001, there were (3 365) extremely severe RTCs with (13 666) deaths, (12 204) injuries and a direct economical loss of 136 million RMB. (2) Most extremely severe RTCs occurred in fine weather days and in the daytime. The high occurrence sites were plain areas, horizontal and straight roads, Grade B and C roads, ordinary road segment, and asphalt, smooth and mixed roads. (3) Compared with other RTCs, extremely severe RTCs were more likely to happen under following conditions: on cloudy, snowing, misty and blustering days; in hill and mountainous areas; on crooked and sloping roads; on freeway, Grade A, B, and C roads; mixed roads; ordinary, bridge, narrow and transitional roads; sand and dirt-roads; without traffic control measures; night without lighting. (4) Extremely severe RTCs of mountainous area or crooked and sloping roads were most severe in terms of deaths and injures per crash. Conclusions: Extremely severe RTCs are closely related with environmental factors. Rational road programming, enhancing road establishment and improving road conditions are probably effective measures to reduce the road traffic injuries.

Comparison of extramedullary and intramedullary devices for treatment of subtrochanteric femoral fractures at tertiary level center

Objective： The treatment of subtrochanteric fractures is challenging and treatment modalities and implants are constantly evolving. This study attempts to revisit and compare extramedullary vs. intramedullary devices in relatively young population. Methods： Thirty patients with subtrochanteric fractures were enrolled and treated with extramedullary or intramedullary devices and follow-up continued one year for clinico-radiological assessment. Results： The mean age of patients was 37,53 years. Most were males between 21-40 years. The dominant mode of injury was traffic accidents （66%）. Fractures were classified according to Russell-Taylor classification. Forty percent were Russell-Taylor type IA, 37% type IB and 23% type IIA. Average time to surgery was 3.6 days from the time of admission to hospital. Mean duration of surgery was 45 minutes for intramedullary device （group A） and 105 minutes for extramedullary device （group B）. Average blood loss was 100 ml in group A and 200 ml in group B. Mean duration of radiation exposure was 130 seconds and 140 seconds for groups A and B, while average duration of hospital stay was 12 days and 16 days respectively. Excellent results were seen in 47% of cases in group A and 33% of cases in group B. Conclusion： Intramedullary device is a reliable implant for subtrochanteric fractures. It has high rates of union with minimal soft-tissue damage. Intramedullary fixation has biological and biomechanical advantages, but surgery is technically demanding. Gradual learning and patience is needed to make this method truly rewarding.

Bilateral inferior dislocation of the hip a case report

Inferior dislocation of the hip is the rarest type in hip dislocation. Very few cases have been reported in the anglophonic literature, most of which involved the pediatric age group. Surprisingly, we came across a 30- year-old patient with a bilateral inferior hip dislocation. He had sustained a road traffic accident and the attitude of both hip joints was flexion and abduction. The diagnosis was confirmed by radiographs which revealed the long axis of the femur at an angle of 1 l0 （right） degrees and 100 （left）degrees respectively away from the axis. Closed reduction under sedation was successfully performed. Skin traction for a period of 6 weeks was advised and the follow-up revealed an excellent result. We present the details of this case, the first of its kind along with a review of the literature, discussing the various modes and mechanisms of injury inducing inferior dislocation of the hip.

Status of ocular trauma in hospitalized patients in Kashan, 2011： As a sample of industrial city

Purpose： Ocular trauma is the third leading cause of hospitalization in ophthalmology patients, imposing direct and indirect physical and psychological costs on society. This study aims to investigate the status of ocular trauma in hospitalized patients in the industrialized city of Kashan in 2011. Methods： This cross-sectional descriptive applied study was conducted in 2012 on patients hospitalized for ocular trauma. Data, including age, gender, occupation, education, timing of admission following accident, location of accident, type of injury, damaging instrument, and type of trauma, were collected using a questionnaire designed by a trained nurse, and analyzed using SPSS-lfi software by means of means _＋ standard deviation, frequency, and percentage for descriptive data and t-test, one-way analysis of variance, Chi-square and Fisher exact test for analysis at significance level ofp 〈 0.05. Results： In total, 82 patients were hospitalized due to ocular traumas. The majority of patients were male （65 patients, 79.3%）. Their mean age was （25.4 ± 21.4） years, with an age range of 20-40 years （30 patients, 36.6%）. Hyphema was the most common injury （26 patients, 25.5%）, home was the most frequent incident location （32 patients, 39%）, and knife or other cutting tools were mostly responsible for injuries （18 patients, 21.9%）. Patients were hospitalized for 1-6 days, and the average length of stay in hospital was 2.63 days. Frequency distribution of injuries based on whether or not ruptures differed significantly among different age groups. Conclusion： The majority of ocular trauma occurred in young males. Knife was the principle culprit for eye injuries, followed by vehicles. To reduce such incidents, it is recommended that people be trained to avoid high-risk behaviors when using knives and to better heed driving rules and regulations.

Comparative analysis of characteristics and risk factors of traffic injury in aged people from urban and rural areas in Chongqing

：Objective：To study the epidemiologic characteristics of traffic injuries among people over 60 years old in the Nan＇ an district（urban）and Jiangjin district（rural）of Chongqing,and to discuss the corresponding strategies for its prevention and cure.Methods：Records of traffic injuries in people over 60 years old registered by the traffic police between 2000 and 2006 in Nan＇an district and Jiangjin district were collected in the Database of Road Traffic Accidents and Traffic Injuries.Epidemiologic characteristics of traffic injuries among the aged people were analyzed and compared.Results：Between the year 2000 and 2006,the average annual incidence of traffic injuries and mortality rate in the aged people in Nan＇ an district were 124.62/100 000 and 13.85/100 000 respectively,higher than that in Jiangjin district（27.49/100 000,7.13/100 000,P〈0.01）.However,the mortality rate for the aged people who were involved in traffic injuries in Jiangjin district was 20.60%,higher than that in Nan＇an district（10.00%,P〈0.01）.Head injury was the primary cause of death.Totally 76.58% of casualties were pedestrians.Over 90% of the traffic accidents occurred in the areas with no traffic signal or traffic control system.Conclusions：The traffic environment is unfavorable to the aged people.It is important to enhance traffic safety consciousness of drivers and the elderly and to strengthen traffic safety system and traffic law,so as to provide a safe road traffic environment for the aged people.

The natural history of flail chest injuries

Purpose： Flail chest （FC） injuries represent a significant burden on trauma services because of its high morbidity and mortality. Current gold standard conservative management strategies for FC, are now being challenged by renewed interest in surgical rib fixation. This retrospective epidemiological study sets out to evaluate FC patients, and quantify the natural history of this injury by studying the injury patterns, epidemiology and mortality of patients sustaining FC injuries admitted to a major trauma centre （MTC）. Methods： A retrospective cohort analysis has been conducted at an MTC with full trauma service. All patients （age 〉 16 years） sustaining FC were included. Patient demographics, injury characteristics and inpatient stay information were extracted. Results： Two hundred and ninety-three patients were identified, with a mean injury severity score （ISS） of 28.9 （range 9-75）, average age of 56.1 years （range of 16-100）, and a male predominance （78%）. Road traffic accidents accounted for 45% （n = 132） of injuries, whilst 44% were fall or jump from height （n = 129）. Associated lung contusion was present in 133 patients （45%） while 76% of patients were found to have 5 or more ribs involved in the flail segment （n = 223） with 96% （n = 281 ） having a unilateral FC. Inpatient treatment was required 19.9 days （range 0-150 days） with 59% of patients （n = 173） requiring intensive care unit （ICU） level care for 8.4 days （range 1-63） with 61.8% requiring mechanical ventilation （n = 107） for 10.5 days （range 1-54）, and Z8g underwent rib fixation with rib plates （n = 23）. The mortality rate was found to be 14% （n = 42）. A non-significant trend towards improved outcomes in the conservative group was found when compared with the fixation group; ventilation days （6.94 vs 10.06, p = 0.18） intensive treatment unit （ITU） length of stay （LOS） （12.56 vs 15.53, p = 0.28） and hospital LOS （32.62 vs 35.24, p = 0.69）. Conclusion： This study has successfully described the natural history of flail chest injuries, and has found a nonsignificant trend towards better outcomes with conservative management. With the cohort and management challenges now defined, work on outcome improvement can be targeted. In addition the comnarahility of results to other studies makes collaboration with other MTCs a realistic vrovosal.