Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that...Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85℃/10yr if emission concentration of CO2 remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO2 decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65℃/10yr, 0.46℃/10yr and 0.27℃/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.展开更多
How would typhoon activity over the western North Pacific change for various scenarios of future global warming?Using the model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP 3)under the SRES A1...How would typhoon activity over the western North Pacific change for various scenarios of future global warming?Using the model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP 3)under the SRES A1B scenario,we generated summer(September)ice-free Arctic conditions,also referred to as Blue Arctic conditions,and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature(SST)and a set of CO2concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting changes in background conditions affecting typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.Our results show that,during typhoon season(June to October),atmospheric and ocean circulations over the western North Pacific would be significantly different from the present circulations.Changes in the vertical shear of zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)in the western North Pacific are favorable for westward and northward shift,respectively,of the location of typhoon genesis.Moreover,changes in the above fields over the key area may be conducive to less frequent typhoons.In addition,the tropical cyclone genesis potential index(GPI)over the western North Pacific would decrease(increase)east(west)of 150°E(140°E).展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (No. 2010CB950900)Technology Innovation Program of Harbin City (No. 2007RFXXS029)
文摘Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85℃/10yr if emission concentration of CO2 remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO2 decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65℃/10yr, 0.46℃/10yr and 0.27℃/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41130103)Norwegian Research Council project "East-Asia DecCen"
文摘How would typhoon activity over the western North Pacific change for various scenarios of future global warming?Using the model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP 3)under the SRES A1B scenario,we generated summer(September)ice-free Arctic conditions,also referred to as Blue Arctic conditions,and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature(SST)and a set of CO2concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting changes in background conditions affecting typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.Our results show that,during typhoon season(June to October),atmospheric and ocean circulations over the western North Pacific would be significantly different from the present circulations.Changes in the vertical shear of zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)in the western North Pacific are favorable for westward and northward shift,respectively,of the location of typhoon genesis.Moreover,changes in the above fields over the key area may be conducive to less frequent typhoons.In addition,the tropical cyclone genesis potential index(GPI)over the western North Pacific would decrease(increase)east(west)of 150°E(140°E).
