物理协调大气变分客观分析模型及其在青藏高原的应用Ⅱ:那曲试验区云——降水、热量和水汽的变化特征

本文利用约束变分客观分析法构建的物理协调大气变分客观分析模型,通过融合地面、探空、卫星等多源观测资料和ERA-Interim再分析资料,建立了青藏高原那曲试验区5年(2013~2017年)长时间序列的热力、动力相协调的大气分析数据集,并以此分析那曲试验区大气的基本环境特征与云—降水演变和大气动力、热力的垂直结构。分析表明:(1)试验区350 h Pa以上风速的季节变化非常明显,风速在冬季11月至次年2月达到最大(>50 m s),盛夏7~8月风速的垂直变化最弱,温度的垂直变化最强,大气高湿区在夏秋雨季位于350~550 h Pa,在冬春干季升至300~400 h Pa。(2)试验区6~7月上旬降水最多;春、秋、冬三季,300~400 h Pa高度层作为大气上升运动和下沉运动的交界处,是云量的集中区;夏季,增多的水汽和增强的大气上升运动导致高云和总云量明显增多,中、低云减少。(3)夏季的地表潜热通量与大气总的潜热释放最强,大气净辐射冷却最弱,高原地区较强的地面感热导致试验区500 h Pa以下的近地面全年存在暖平流,500 h Pa以上则由于强烈的西风和辐射冷却存在冷平流。此外,试验区整层大气全年以干平流为主,但在夏季出现了较弱的湿平流。(4)视热源Q具有明显的垂直分层特征:全年500 h Pa以下大气表现为冷源,300~500 h Pa和100~150 h Pa表现为热源,150~300 h Pa则在冬春干季表现为冷源,在夏秋雨季表现为热源,不同高度层的冷、热源的形成原因不同,其中夏季由于增强的上升运动、感热垂直输送和水汽凝结潜热以及高云的形成,因此几乎整层大气表现为热源。

气溶胶对云宏微观特性和降水影响的研究进展

气溶胶—云—降水相互作用是当今大气科学研究的热点和前沿问题。概述性地回顾了气溶胶对云宏微观特性和降水影响的研究进展,分别讨论了气溶胶对层状云、对流云等典型云系的动力和微物理过程的影响,总结了国内外研究关于气溶胶对云宏微观特性影响的可能的物理解释。回顾外场观测及数值研究表明,气溶胶对云液态水含量、地面降水及光学厚度的影响存在着许多不确定性。另外指出,在研究气溶胶对云宏观特性和降水影响时,应该加强气溶胶对云微物理特性影响的观测(卫星、雷达、飞机、地面观测等)和数值模拟的综合分析研究。

Precipitation responses to radiative processes of water- and ice-clouds: an equilibrium cloud-resolving modeling study

Cloud radiative processes are important in regulating weather and climate. Precipitation responses to radiative processes of water- and ice-clouds are investigated by analyzing mean equilibrium simulation data from a series of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments in this study. The model is imposed by zero vertical velocity.The exclusion of water radiative processes in the presence of ice radiative processes, as well as the removal of ice radiative processes, enhances tropospheric Iongwave radiative cooling and lowers air temperature and the saturation mixing ratio. The reduction in the saturation mixing ratio leads to an increase in vapor condensation and an associated release of latent heat, which increases rainfall. The elimination of water radiative processes strengthens local atmospheric warming Iongwave radiative cooling. The enhanced warming melting of graupel, which increases rainfa n the upper troposphere via a reduction in ncreases the rain source via an increase in the

Revisiting the size of nonspherical particles recorded by optical array probes with a new method based on the convex hull

In recent years,the Cloud Imaging Probe(CIP)and Precipitation Imaging Probe(PIP)produced by Droplet Measurement Technologies(DMT)have been introduced by a number of meteorological research and operation centers in China.The supporting software provided by DMT,i.e.,PADS(Particle Analysis and Display System),cannot output detailed information on each individual particle,which definitely limits the in-depth utilization of cloud and precipitation particle image data in China.In this paper,particle-by-particle information was extracted by decompressing the CIP and PIP original particle image data,based on which a new definition of the dimension for nonspherical particles is proposed by using the area of the convex hull enclosing a particle to obtain the equivalent diameter of a circle with equal area.Based on the data detected during one flight in Inner Mongolia,the particle size distribution obtained using the new particle size definition and that used by the other four existing definitions are compared.The results show that the particle number concentration calculated using different particle size definitions can vary by up to an order of magnitude.The result obtained based on the new particle size definition is closest to that calculated with the area-equivalent diameter definition.

A Case Study of Impact of FY-2C Satellite Data in Cloud Analysis to Improve Short-Range Precipitation Forecast

Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied.

The Impact of the Eastward Propagation of Convective Systems over the Tibetan Plateau on the Southwest Vortex Formation in Summer

Based on the temperature of the black body (TBB),station observed and NCEP reanalysis data,the impacts of the eastward propagation of convective cloud systems over the Tibetan Plateau on the southwest vortex (SWV) formation that occurred at 1800 UTC on 29 June 2003 are analyzed by using the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) equation to diagnose the thermal and dynamic processes.It is found that,in summer,severe convective activities often occur over the Tibetan Plateau due to the abundant supply of moisture.The convective cloud near the east edge of the plateau could move eastward with a shortwave trough in the westerly.The divergent center that is induced by latent heat release,which is associated with severe convective activities,moves out with the convective cloud and contributes to the low level decompression which is favorable for the formation of plateau edge cyclogenesis (PEC).The Z-O equation indicates that,in this case,the latent heat release and convergence are the two most important factors for SWV formation,which amounts to about 42% and 15% of the term TOTAL,respectively.It is implied that the thermal process effect was more important than the dynamic process during SWV formation.

Cloud vertical structures associated with precipitation magnitudes over the Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring regions

Cloud vertical structures and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） are analyzed and compared with its neighboring land and tropical oceans based on CloudSat/CALIPSO satellite measurements and TRMM precipitation data. Results show that the TP generally has a compression effect on cloud systems, as manifested by a shrinking cloud depth and lowering cloud top. Precipitation is weaker over the TP than its neighboring regions and exhibits large seasonal variations. In summer, cloud ice particles over the TP are mostly located at lower altitude （5-10 km）, with a larger variability of sizes and aggregation （particle number concentration） under no-rain conditions compared to other regions. Ice water content becomes abundant and the number concentration tends to be dense at higher altitudes when precipitation is enhanced. However, even for heavy rainstorms, the aggregation is most likely between 100 and 250 L-1, whereas it can reach as high as 500 L-1 over its neighboring land and tropical oceans. Given the same magnitude of precipitation, the spectrum of ice particle sizes is found to be wider over the TP than other regions.

Cloud microphysical differences with precipitation intensity in a torrential rainfall event in Sichuan, China

High-resolution data of a torrential rainfall event in Sichuan, China, simulated by the WRF model, were used to analyze the cloud microphysical differences with precipitation intensity. Sixhourly accumulated rainfall was classified into five bins based on rainfall intensity, and the cloud microphysical characteristics and processes in different bins were studied. The results show that：（1） Hydrometeor content differed distinctly among different bins. Mixing ratios of cloud water, rain water, and graupel enhanced significantly and monotonously with increasing rainfall intensity. With increasing precipitation intensity, the monotonous increase in cloud water number concentration was significant. Meanwhile, number concentrations of rain water and graupel increased at first and then decreased or increased slowly in larger rainfall bins.（2） With precipitation intensity increasing, cloud microphysical conversion processes closely related to the production of rainwater, directly（accretion of cloud water by rain（QCLcr） and melting of graupel（QMLgr）） or indirectly（water vapor condensation and accretion of cloud water by graupel）, increased significantly.（3） As the two main sources of rainwater, QCLcrincreased monotonously with increasing precipitation intensity, while QMLgr increased slowly, even tending to cease increasing in larger rainfall bins.

DIAGNOSES OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT OVER YUNNAN AREA IN THE EARLY SUMMER OF 2005

High temperature and drought occurred in Yunnan province during the late spring and early summer in 2005, which was the most severe event in this region since 1950’s. Based on the observational data and relevant diagnoses, this extreme weather event was studied and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of this event could be due to the following observational facts that happened in 2005. (1) The seasonal adjustment of middle-high-leveled atmospheric circulation was delayed. (2) The cold air activity center was deviated north. (3) The onset of summer monsoon over South China Sea was delayed. (4) The tropical convection activity was much weaker than usual. (5) The subtropical high over the western Pacific was located southwestwards and relatively strong.

THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPACT OF THE WESTWARD-GOING TROPICAL CYCLONES ON RAINFALL IN YUNNAN PLATEAU

Using data available from the Retrieval System Based on Yearbooks of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data and observed precipitation data for 1959 to 2007 in Yunnan,a province located in a low-latitude plateau,this work analyzes the climatic characteristics and the corresponding large-scale circulation patterns related to the western North Pacific westward moving TCs(WMTCs).Its impacts on the rainfall in the Yunnan Plateau are studied.Results show that WMTCs happen almost every year,mainly from July to September.It shows a downward trend in decadal variation.Nearly the entire Yunnan area is affected by them but the eastern part experiences the most severe influences.Most of the WMTCs migrate from the South China Sea,primarily make landfall in Hainan and Guangdong and enter the Northern Bay.The tracks of these typhoons can be classified into five categories,in which the most significant impact results from those making landfall in Guangdong.All categories of the tropical cyclones can induce province-wide heavy rainfall in Yunnan.Super typhoons bring about the heaviest and most extensive rainfall over the low-latitude plateau while the associated circulation pattern is marked with a dominant 500 hPa meridional circulation at middle latitudes,an active monsoon depression and Intertropical Convection Zone(ITCZ) at low latitudes and a westward-located South Asia High at 100 hPa,which is favorable for tropical cyclones to travel westward.WMTCs tend to go westward into the interior part of China if the subtropical high extends its westernmost ridge point to the northeast of Yunnan,or expands its periphery anti-cyclonic circulation to the Tibetan Plateau,or merges with the Qinghai-Tibetan high.

Projection of Water Availability in the Miyun Watershed from an RCM Simulation

Based on a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) simulation over East Asia, future climate changes over the Miyun Reservoir in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed. The model simulation extends from 1951 to 2100 at a grid spacing of 25 km and is one-way nested within a global model of MIROC3.2_ hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). The focus of the analysis is on the Watershed of Miyun Reservoir, the main water supply for Beijing in northern China. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed temperature well but it overestimates precipitation over the region. Significant warming in the 21st century is simulated in the annual mean, December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA), although with differences concerning the spatial distribution and magnitude. Changes in precipitation for the annual mean, DJF, and JJA also show differences. A prevailing increase of precipitation in DJF and a decrease of it in JJA is projected over the region, while little change in the annual mean is projected. Changes of the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration to measure the potential water availability are also presented in the paper.

Using leaf area index(LAI) to assess vegetation response to drought in Yunnan province of China

Climatic extremes such as drought have becoming a severe climate-related problem in many regions all over the world that can induce anomalies in vegetation condition. Growth and CO2 uptake by plants are constrained to a large extent by drought.Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to drought across the various land cover types and different regions. Leaf area index(LAI) derived from Global Land Surface Satellite(GLASS) data was used to evaluate the response of vegetation to drought occurrence across Yunnan Province, China(2001-2010). The meteorological drought was assessed based on Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)values. Pearson's correlation coefficients between LAI and SPI were examined across several timescales within six sub-regions of the Yunnan. Further, the drought-prone area was identified based on LAI anomaly values. Lag and cumulative effects of lack of precipitation on vegetation were evident, with significant correlations found using 3-, 6-, 9-and 12-month timescale. We found 9-month timescale has higher correlations compared to another timescale.Approximately 29.4% of Yunnan's area was classified as drought-prone area, based on the LAI anomaly values. Most of this drought-prone area was distributed in the mountainous region of Yunnan.From the research, it is evident that GLASS LAI can be effectively used as an indicator for assessing drought conditions and it provide valuable information for drought risk defense and preparedness.

IMPACTS OF TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPERIENCING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING NORTHWARD PROGRESSION ON THE RAINFALL OF LIAODONG PENINSULA

Both of Typhoon Winnie (9711) and Matsa (0509) underwent an extratropical transition (ET) process when they moved northward after landfall and affected Liaodong Peninsula. However, Matsa produced half as much rainfall as Winnie, although it struck Liaodong Peninsula directly while Winnie passed through the Bohai Sea. The relations between the ET processes and the precipitation over Liaodong Peninsula are examined. The result shows that the precipitation difference between Winnie and Matsa was closely related to the interactions between the westerly systems and typhoons during their ET processes. Winnie was captured by the upper westerly trough and then coupled with it when moving to the mid-latitudes, and the positive anomaly of moist potential vorticity (MPV) was transported downward from the upper troposphere over the remnant circulation of the tropical cyclone (TC). It was favorable to the interaction between tropical warm and wet air and westerly cold air, causing convective cloud clusters to form and develop. The rain belt composed of several meso-β cloud clusters over the Liaodong Peninsula, resulting in heavy rainfall. On the other hand, Matsa did not couple with any upper trough during its ET process and the positive anomaly of MPV in the upper troposphere and its downward transfer were weak. Only one meso-β cloud cluster occurred in Matsa’s rain belt during its ET process that tended to lessen rainfall over Liaodong Peninsula.

Seasonal variability in tropical and subtropical convective and stratiform precipitation of the East Asian monsoon

Seasonal variations in tropical and subtropical convective and stratiform precipitation of the East Asian monsoon are analyzed using 10-year (1998-2007) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) rain products (2A25). Datasets from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 24 general circulation models (GCMs) are evaluated using TRMM PR rain products in terms of their ability to simulate convective and stratiform precipitation and their deficiencies. The results show that Asian monsoon convective and stratiform precipitation increases significantly after onset of the summer monsoon, but the percentage of convective precipitation clearly decreases over tropical areas while it increases in subtropical regions. The GCMs simulate well the seasonal variation in the contribution of Asian monsoon subtropical convective precipitation to the total rainfall; however, the simulated convective precipitation amount is high while the simulated stratiform precipitation amount is low relative to TRMM measurements, especially over the Asian monsoon tropical region. There is simultaneous TRMM-observed convective and stratiform precipitation in space and time, but GCMs cannot simulate this relationship between convective and stratiform precipitation, resulting in the deficiency of stratiform precipitation simulations.

Climatic characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation over the Tropical and Subtropical areas as derived from TRMM PR

Climatic characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation over the Tropical and Subtropical areas are investigated based on the measurements of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's(TRMM) Precipitation Radar(PR) from 1998 to 2007.Results indicate that convective precipitation are distributed mainly over the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ),the South Pacific Convergence Zone(SPCZ),the Asian Monsoon Region,regions between the South America and the Mid-America,and the Tropical Africa where the frequencies lie between 1% and 2%.But in four seasons,total area fractions of convective precipitation frequencies less than 1% all exceed 85%.The frequencies of stratiform precipitation are much higher than those of convective precipitation,and total area fractions of stratiform precipitation frequencies >1% are over 55% during four seasons.However,frequencies of the two rain types show not only remarkable regionality,but also distinct seasonal variations.Conditional rain rates of convective precipitation range from 6 to 14 mm/h whereas those of stratiform precipitation are smaller than 4 mm/h.Meanwhile,rain tops of convective precipitation are higher than those of stratiform precipitation.The mean profiles of the two rain types show significant latitudinal dependency.And the seasonal variations of precipitation profiles are displayed mainly in the variations of rain tops.The frequencies and conditional rain rates of both rain types over ocean are higher than those over land,but rain tops are just the opposite.Moreover,the seasonal variations of both rain types over ocean are weaker than those over land because of the different stable states of underlying surfaces.

Features of rainfall and latent heating structure simulated by two convective parameterization schemes

Using the latest version of SAMIL (Spectral Atmosphere Model of IAP LASG) developed by LASG/IAP,we evaluate the model performance by analyzing rainfall,latent heating structure and other basic fields with two different convective parameterization schemes:Manabe Scheme and Tiedtke Scheme.Results show that convective precipitation is excessively overestimated while stratiform precipitation is underestimated by Tiedtke scheme,thus causing less stratiform rainfall proportion compared with TRMM observation.In contrast,for Manabe scheme stratiform rainfall belt is well simulated,although precipitation center near Bay of Bengal (BOB) spreads eastward and northward associated with unrealistic strong rainfall downstream of the Tibet Plateau.The simulated latent heating structure indicates that Tiedtke scheme has an advantage over Manabe scheme,as the maximum convective latent heating near middle of troposphere is well reproduced.Moreover,the stratiform latent heating structure is also well simulated by Tiedtke scheme with warming above freezing level and cooling beneath freezing level.As for Manabe scheme,the simulated maximum convective latent heating lies near 700 hPa,lower than the observation.Additionally,the warming due to stratiform latent heating extends to the whole vertical levels,which is unreasonable compared with observation.Taylor diagram further indicates that Tiedtke scheme is superior to Manabe scheme as higher correlation between model output and observation data is achieved when Tiedtke scheme is employed,especially for the temperature near 200 hPa.Finally,a possible explanation is addressed for the unrealistic stratiform rainfall by Tiedtke scheme,which is due to the neglect of detrained cloud water and cloud ice during convective process.The speculation is verified through an established sensitivity experiment.

Daytime precipitation identification scheme based on multiple cloud parameters retrieved from visible and infrared measurements

Visible and infrared(VIR) measurements and the retrieved cloud parameters are commonly used in precipitation identification algorithms, since the VIR observations from satellites, especially geostationary satellites, have high spatial and temporal resolutions. Combined measurements from visible/infrared scanner(VIRS) and precipitation radar(PR) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite are analyzed, and three cloud parameters, i.e., cloud optical thickness(COT), effective radius(Re), and brightness temperature of VIRS channel 4(BT4), are particularly considered to characterize the cloud status. By associating the information from VIRS-derived cloud parameters with those from precipitation detected by PR, we propose a new method for discriminating precipitation in daytime called Precipitation Identification Scheme from Cloud Parameters information(PISCP). It is essentially a lookup table(LUT) approach that is deduced from the optimal equitable threat score(ETS) statistics within 3-dimensional space of the chosen cloud parameters. South and East China is selected as a typical area representing land surface, and the East China Sea and Yellow Sea is selected as typical oceanic area to assess the performance of the new scheme. It is proved that PISCP performs well in discriminating precipitation over both land and oceanic areas. Especially, over ocean, precipitating clouds(PCs) and non-precipitating clouds(N-PCs) are well distinguished by PISCP, with the probability of detection(POD) near 0.80, the probability of false detection(POFD) about 0.07, and the ETS higher than 0.43. The overall spatial distribution of PCs fraction estimated by PISCP is consistent with that by PR, implying that the precipitation data produced by PISCP have great potentials in relevant applications where radar data are unavailable.

The formation and precipitation mechanism of two ordered patterns of embedded convection in stratiform cloud

Although convection embedded in stratiform cloud is often disordered, it is ordered under certain weather conditions. In particular, there are two forms of ordered convection: embedded convection with a ladder-like pattern and that with a parallel pattern. However, there is little literature regarding these patterns. Because stratiform clouds with embedded convection are major objects for weather-modification studies, it is important to explore the formation/development and characteristic precipitation of embedded convection from the perspective of cloud and precipitation physics. In this paper, using observation data, we simulate a large-scale precipitation event in China for July 19-21, 2007, employing the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (V2.2). The rainfall-related clouds are analyzed through simulation, with particular focus being given to the genesis of embedded convection, the precipitation and microphysical properties. The results show that the WRF model can simulate features of this kind of nephsystem, indicating a close relationship between convection genesis and the 500 hPa trough and low-level convergence line. In such a favorable weather situation, there are two ordered patterns of embedded con- vection in the nephsystem, one being a group of convection centers arranged at different altitudes in a ladder-like manner and the other being a group of convection centers with a parallel pattern. In the first case, rainfall also has a ladder feature, with precipitation being highest for the top convection and reducing to the base convection. This implies that the higher the convection develops, the more active the microphysics in warmand cold-cloud processes is, leading to greater precipitation; i.e. rainfall in a ladder-like distribution. In the second case, rainfall decreases step by step from south to north, with the precipitation depending strongly on the cloud-water content therein. The two patterns of embedded convection and their precipitation features and microphysics are intensively studied from a new point of view.

The effects of giant cloud condensation nuclei on the structure of precipitation in hailstorm clouds

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) has been used to investigate the effects of varied giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN) concentrations on precipitation characteristics of the spring hailstorms in a semi-arid region. The simulation result shows that this variation has significant effects on the storm microphysical processes as well as on the surface precipitation. The coverage of hail and hail mixing ratio maxima in cloud increases with greater GCCN concentrations. The accumulation zone structure benefits the growth of hail particles. Higher GCCN concentrations lead to more supercooled rain water and cloud water available for freezing. This simulation also shows that increasing GCCN concentrations may produce more rainfall on the surface but less hail precipitation, and the total accumulated precipitation increases while the ice phase precipitation decreases. This effect is stronger in polluted air than in clean air. The surface flow field changes with different GCCN concentrations. The identification index of spring hailstorm is different from that of summer hailstorm with a different aerosol background.