Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were us...Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied.展开更多
Ensemble prediction experiments of the tracks of eight tropical cyclones occurring between 2004-2006 over the western Pacific have been performed by using MM5 with five cumulus parameterization schemes. The results sh...Ensemble prediction experiments of the tracks of eight tropical cyclones occurring between 2004-2006 over the western Pacific have been performed by using MM5 with five cumulus parameterization schemes. The results show that the predictions of the tracks of the tropical cyclones are sensitive to the selection of cumulus parameterization schemes. Each scheme has its own advantage and disadvantage, and the predications without cumulus parameterization schemes are not the worst, sometimes even better than the others. And all of the three ensemble methods improve the predictions of the tracks significantly, among which the ensemble method without parameterization schemes, the Grell, Betts-Miller and Kain-Fritsch schemes are the best.展开更多
Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medi...Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ERA-40）, Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.0 （CRU3）, and ground sta- tion datasets are used to show spatial and temporal varia- tion of TCC and their differences. It is demonstrated that the four datasets show similar spatial pattern and seasonal variation. The maximum value is derived from ISCCE TCC value in North China derived from ERA-40 is 50% larger than that from the station dataset; however, the value is 50% less than that in South China. The annual TCC of ISCCP, ERA-40, and ground station datasets shows a decreasing trend during 1984-2002; however, an increasing trend is derived from CRU3. The results of this study imply remarkable differences of TCC derived from surface and satellite observations as well as model simu- lations. The potential effects of these differences on cloud climatology and associated climatic issues should be carefully considered.展开更多
Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and scale range of two significant areas were obtained by analyzing the relationship among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S –...Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and scale range of two significant areas were obtained by analyzing the relationship among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S – 40°N, 30 °E – 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa for Jan. to May and correlation, and field wave structure. Remote key regions among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S – 40°N, 30°E – 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa were studied through further analyzing of the circulation system and its climate / weather significance. The result shows that the forecast has dependable physical basis when height and SST fields were viewed as predictors and physical models of impacts on rainy season precipitation in Yunnan are preliminarily concluded.展开更多
Based on the earthquake activity characteristics of the diamond block in the Sichuan- Yunnan region and by using the method of the meso-scope damage dynamics and damage evolution, we studied the damage evolution proce...Based on the earthquake activity characteristics of the diamond block in the Sichuan- Yunnan region and by using the method of the meso-scope damage dynamics and damage evolution, we studied the damage evolution process for moderately strong earthquakes along two seismic belts. The original combination patterns of all the units which illuminate the changes from stable state to destroyed state are given. All these patterns can direct the earthquake prediction practice in this region.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41375025, 41275114, and 41275039)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, 2012AA120903)+1 种基金the Public Benefit Research Foundation of the China Meteorological Administration (GYHY201106044 and GYHY201406001)the China Meteorological Administration Torrential Flood Project
文摘Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied.
基金Applied Research on Ensemble Forecast Using Multiple Parameterization Schemes, a NaturalScience Foundation project of Zhejiang Province (Y505286)
文摘Ensemble prediction experiments of the tracks of eight tropical cyclones occurring between 2004-2006 over the western Pacific have been performed by using MM5 with five cumulus parameterization schemes. The results show that the predictions of the tracks of the tropical cyclones are sensitive to the selection of cumulus parameterization schemes. Each scheme has its own advantage and disadvantage, and the predications without cumulus parameterization schemes are not the worst, sometimes even better than the others. And all of the three ensemble methods improve the predictions of the tracks significantly, among which the ensemble method without parameterization schemes, the Grell, Betts-Miller and Kain-Fritsch schemes are the best.
基金supported by the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05100300)the National Basic Research Program of China(2013CB955801)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175030)
文摘Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ERA-40）, Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.0 （CRU3）, and ground sta- tion datasets are used to show spatial and temporal varia- tion of TCC and their differences. It is demonstrated that the four datasets show similar spatial pattern and seasonal variation. The maximum value is derived from ISCCE TCC value in North China derived from ERA-40 is 50% larger than that from the station dataset; however, the value is 50% less than that in South China. The annual TCC of ISCCP, ERA-40, and ground station datasets shows a decreasing trend during 1984-2002; however, an increasing trend is derived from CRU3. The results of this study imply remarkable differences of TCC derived from surface and satellite observations as well as model simu- lations. The potential effects of these differences on cloud climatology and associated climatic issues should be carefully considered.
基金Key Foundation Project of Yunnan Province (2003D0014Z)Natural Science Foundation ofChina (40065001)
文摘Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and scale range of two significant areas were obtained by analyzing the relationship among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S – 40°N, 30 °E – 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa for Jan. to May and correlation, and field wave structure. Remote key regions among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S – 40°N, 30°E – 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa were studied through further analyzing of the circulation system and its climate / weather significance. The result shows that the forecast has dependable physical basis when height and SST fields were viewed as predictors and physical models of impacts on rainy season precipitation in Yunnan are preliminarily concluded.
文摘Based on the earthquake activity characteristics of the diamond block in the Sichuan- Yunnan region and by using the method of the meso-scope damage dynamics and damage evolution, we studied the damage evolution process for moderately strong earthquakes along two seismic belts. The original combination patterns of all the units which illuminate the changes from stable state to destroyed state are given. All these patterns can direct the earthquake prediction practice in this region.
