为减少海上交通事故的发生,在建立沿海水域(Coastal Water Area,CWA)交通安全评估因素三层次结构的基础上,针对事故统计数据的不确定性,尝试采用证据推理(Evidential Reasoning,ER)方法进行CWA交通安全评估,并运用案例证实该方法的可行...为减少海上交通事故的发生,在建立沿海水域(Coastal Water Area,CWA)交通安全评估因素三层次结构的基础上,针对事故统计数据的不确定性,尝试采用证据推理(Evidential Reasoning,ER)方法进行CWA交通安全评估,并运用案例证实该方法的可行性.评估结果可以为海事安全管理工作决策提供参考依据.展开更多
A new safety assessment method for parallel routes is presented. From the aspects of safety guard system of air traffic control（ATC） and considering the flight conflict as causing event of air collision accidents, t...A new safety assessment method for parallel routes is presented. From the aspects of safety guard system of air traffic control（ATC） and considering the flight conflict as causing event of air collision accidents, this paper fosters a four-layer safety guard of controller command, short-term conflict alerts （STCAs）, pilot visual avoidance, and traffic alert collision avoidance system（TCAS）. Then, the problem of parallel routes collision risk is divided into two parts：the calculation of potential flight conflict and the analysis of failure probability of the four-layer safety guard. A calculation model for controller interference times is induced. By using cognitive reliability and error analysis method（CREAM）,the calculation problem to failure probability of controller sequencing flight conflicts is solved and a fault tree model of guard failure of STCA and TCAS is established. Finally, the Beijing-Shanghai parallel routes are taken as an example to be calculated and the collision risk of the parallel routes is obtained under the condition of radar control. Results show that the parallel routes can satisfy the safety demands.展开更多
Major mineral hazard identifications should consider perilous types of fatal accidents in collieries from its definition, and then set existent hazardous objects and their relevant amount as referenced factors. Elimin...Major mineral hazard identifications should consider perilous types of fatal accidents in collieries from its definition, and then set existent hazardous objects and their relevant amount as referenced factors. Eliminating hazards in systems and decreasing risks are their essential purposes with help of hazard identification, risk evaluation and management. By pre-control on major hazards, fatal accidents are avoided, stuffs＇ safety and healthy are protected, levels of safe management are enhanced, and perpetual systems are built up finally. However, choosing the proper identification and evaluation is a problem all along. Based on specific condition in Jiangou Coal Mine, method of LEC was applied for hazard identification and evaluation in the pre-blasting process within horizontal section top-coal mechanized caving of steep seams. And control measures to of each hazard were put forward. The identification method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. So, it is practical and operable for the method to develop the given scientific research and has a distinctive impact on high efficiency and safety products for pre-blasting in horizontal section top-coal mechanized caving of steep seams.展开更多
文摘为减少海上交通事故的发生,在建立沿海水域(Coastal Water Area,CWA)交通安全评估因素三层次结构的基础上,针对事故统计数据的不确定性,尝试采用证据推理(Evidential Reasoning,ER)方法进行CWA交通安全评估,并运用案例证实该方法的可行性.评估结果可以为海事安全管理工作决策提供参考依据.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China("863"Program)(2006AA12A105)~~
文摘A new safety assessment method for parallel routes is presented. From the aspects of safety guard system of air traffic control（ATC） and considering the flight conflict as causing event of air collision accidents, this paper fosters a four-layer safety guard of controller command, short-term conflict alerts （STCAs）, pilot visual avoidance, and traffic alert collision avoidance system（TCAS）. Then, the problem of parallel routes collision risk is divided into two parts：the calculation of potential flight conflict and the analysis of failure probability of the four-layer safety guard. A calculation model for controller interference times is induced. By using cognitive reliability and error analysis method（CREAM）,the calculation problem to failure probability of controller sequencing flight conflicts is solved and a fault tree model of guard failure of STCA and TCAS is established. Finally, the Beijing-Shanghai parallel routes are taken as an example to be calculated and the collision risk of the parallel routes is obtained under the condition of radar control. Results show that the parallel routes can satisfy the safety demands.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （1100202 l） the Doctoral Subject Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China （20070008012） the National High Technology Research and Development Program （2008AA062104）
文摘Major mineral hazard identifications should consider perilous types of fatal accidents in collieries from its definition, and then set existent hazardous objects and their relevant amount as referenced factors. Eliminating hazards in systems and decreasing risks are their essential purposes with help of hazard identification, risk evaluation and management. By pre-control on major hazards, fatal accidents are avoided, stuffs＇ safety and healthy are protected, levels of safe management are enhanced, and perpetual systems are built up finally. However, choosing the proper identification and evaluation is a problem all along. Based on specific condition in Jiangou Coal Mine, method of LEC was applied for hazard identification and evaluation in the pre-blasting process within horizontal section top-coal mechanized caving of steep seams. And control measures to of each hazard were put forward. The identification method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. So, it is practical and operable for the method to develop the given scientific research and has a distinctive impact on high efficiency and safety products for pre-blasting in horizontal section top-coal mechanized caving of steep seams.
