流通产业的经济增长值、全要素生产率与地区就业增长

在我国经济产业中,流通产业作为服务行业的组成部分,对经济增长、提高就业率具有重要作用。本文在广义最小二乘法理论分析的基础上,深入分析2016-2017我国东中西部地区的流通产业发展情况,通过面板数据实证分析产业结构转型对其经济增长值、全要素生产率与地区就业增长间的影响关系。研究结果显示,流通产业经济增长、全要素生产率的提高对就业率的提高具有明显促进作用,且该促进作用拥有明显的地区差异化,东部地区明显优于中西部。根据实证研究结果,对促进我国流通产业发展提出相关建议,应从大力支持中小型企业的发展、支持技术创新等方面着手,促进流通产业发展,推动我国经济增长。

Technological Content of the Import of Services and the Transformation of Growth Patterns of China's Industrial Economy

Based on the latest approach for measuring technology content of import of services and with the contribution of total factor productivity(TFP) to gross industrial output as the indicator for measuring the growth pattern of China's industrial economy,this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of import technology content of trade in services on the development pattern of China's industrial economy between 2004 and2011.Result of econometric test reveals that the technology content of import of services has a significant positive effect on transforming the growth pattern of China's industrial economy.Moreover,import of new types of trade in services with high technology such as computer and information services has a much stronger positive effect compared with import of traditional trade in services with relatively low technology content such as transport.In terms of different industrial sectors,technology content of import of services has the greatest effect on transforming the development pattern of China's technologyintensive industrial sectors,followed by capital-intensive,resource-intensive and laborintensive sectors respectively.Transformation of the development pattern of China's industrial economy cannot be isolated from the system of global division of work.Against the backdrop of global service sector fragmentation,China should take the important opportunities in the development of global trade in services and give more attention to improving the quality of import of services in the interest of transforming the development pattern of its industrial economy.

The Convergence Analysis on the Economic Growth and Energy Intensity Gap between Regional Sectors

In this paper,the authors have analyzed the relationship between energy intensity gap and GDP per worker gap of China's western and eastern provinces over the period 1997-2006.Using panel data model with lag adjustment,taking the above provinces and six industrial sectors (agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,industry,construction industry,transport,storage and post & telecommunications,wholesale and retail trades & catering industry,and other sectors of tertiary industry.) as the investigated subjects,the authors have conducted empirical study on the convergence of GDP per worker gap and the convergence of energy intensity gap with respect to the variation of GDP per worker gap,and have concluded that:First,the GDP per worker gap of the six industrial sectors and provinces are convergent,and of this,the convergence rate of GDP per worker gap of Construction Industry is the fastest,while that of Industry is the slowest.Second,the overall energy intensity gap between eastern and western provinces is convergent,that is,with the narrowing of GDP per worker gap between eastern and western provinces,the energy intensity gap converges,but its convergence rate is slower than that of GDP per worker gap.Third,energy intensity gap between various industrial sectors of the east and the west is either convergent or divergent,and there are differences.The energy intensity gap of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,industry,and construction industry is convergent,while that of the other three industrial sectors is divergent.Fourth,the convergence of the overall energy intensity of the western provinces is not in conformity with the convergence of the various industrial sectors,and there are significant differences,indicating that the western provinces and autonomous regions should take measures to more effectively improve their overall energy utilization efficiency at the industrial sector level.

Yardstick

First quarter growth figures will be released by the National Statistical Bureau in the middle of this month. The figures will certainly offer no great surprises; they are more or less predictable. China＇s official statistics show that its economy rose by 9.9 percentage points last year. After the first quarter of this year it will be certainly less but probably not far below 9 percent, if at all. Predictions for the whole year vary from a still hefty 9.3 percent to as low as 8 percent. Whatever figure turns out to be true at the end of the year, it is a healthy one, economically speaking.