A better understanding of the regional disparity and imbalance characteristics of China's urbanization development is the important premise for constituting correct policy and strategy and promoting the healthy an...A better understanding of the regional disparity and imbalance characteristics of China's urbanization development is the important premise for constituting correct policy and strategy and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of urbanization in the 21st century. The regional differences of China's urbanization level have close relations with natural conditions of landform and climate etc.,the urbanization level reduces with the eleva-tion of topography and decrease of precipitation. According to the statistical data set of ur-banization in 1950-2006,the temporal change course of inter-provincial disparity of Chinese urbanization level since the founding of New China in 1949 was studied,and then the inter-regional and intra-regional disparities of urbanization development were analyzed by the Theil index and its nested decomposition method,to grasp the dynamic change of spatial disparities of China's urbanization level on the whole. Using the imbalance index model,the imbalance status of urban population distribution relative to total population,grain output,total agricultural output value,gross output value of industry,tertiary industrial output value as well as gross regional product was discussed,to hold the balance characteristics of urbanization development relative to the regional development conditions from the macroscopic scales.展开更多
This paper utilizes the Theil and decoupling indices to analyze variation in carbon productivity as well as the factors that influence regional carbon productivity in China and proposes carbon emission reduction count...This paper utilizes the Theil and decoupling indices to analyze variation in carbon productivity as well as the factors that influence regional carbon productivity in China and proposes carbon emission reduction countermeasures. The authors conclude that most provinces exhibit year-on-year rising carbon productivity, a trend which decreases moving from east to western China. When applied to carbon productivity, the Theil index presents distinct regional differences. Moreover, the regional variance in carbon productivity is consistently reduced in eastern China and becomes smaller in central China. The difference, however, grows in western China. Carbon productivity grows with the highest speed in central China and the lowest speed in western China. Overall variation in carbon productivity mainly arises from intra-regional difference, whereas inter-regional difference mainly contributed by eastern China. In recent years; both the decoupling index, a dynamic value equal to the rate of change rate in carbon emissions divided by the rate of change in GDP during a given period of time, and carbon productivity vary in different economic development stages. Even if under the same decoupling state, carbon productivity remains different in three regions, i.e., that of the eastern region is higher than the other two regions .展开更多
This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency...This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts （USS/Brazilian Reais） are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares （ICSS） algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity （SWGARCH） in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions： First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.展开更多
基金National Science and Technology Supporting Program of "the Eleventh Five-Year Plan",No.2006BAJ05A06 2006BAJ14B03-01Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-307-02
文摘A better understanding of the regional disparity and imbalance characteristics of China's urbanization development is the important premise for constituting correct policy and strategy and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of urbanization in the 21st century. The regional differences of China's urbanization level have close relations with natural conditions of landform and climate etc.,the urbanization level reduces with the eleva-tion of topography and decrease of precipitation. According to the statistical data set of ur-banization in 1950-2006,the temporal change course of inter-provincial disparity of Chinese urbanization level since the founding of New China in 1949 was studied,and then the inter-regional and intra-regional disparities of urbanization development were analyzed by the Theil index and its nested decomposition method,to grasp the dynamic change of spatial disparities of China's urbanization level on the whole. Using the imbalance index model,the imbalance status of urban population distribution relative to total population,grain output,total agricultural output value,gross output value of industry,tertiary industrial output value as well as gross regional product was discussed,to hold the balance characteristics of urbanization development relative to the regional development conditions from the macroscopic scales.
文摘This paper utilizes the Theil and decoupling indices to analyze variation in carbon productivity as well as the factors that influence regional carbon productivity in China and proposes carbon emission reduction countermeasures. The authors conclude that most provinces exhibit year-on-year rising carbon productivity, a trend which decreases moving from east to western China. When applied to carbon productivity, the Theil index presents distinct regional differences. Moreover, the regional variance in carbon productivity is consistently reduced in eastern China and becomes smaller in central China. The difference, however, grows in western China. Carbon productivity grows with the highest speed in central China and the lowest speed in western China. Overall variation in carbon productivity mainly arises from intra-regional difference, whereas inter-regional difference mainly contributed by eastern China. In recent years; both the decoupling index, a dynamic value equal to the rate of change rate in carbon emissions divided by the rate of change in GDP during a given period of time, and carbon productivity vary in different economic development stages. Even if under the same decoupling state, carbon productivity remains different in three regions, i.e., that of the eastern region is higher than the other two regions .
文摘This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts （USS/Brazilian Reais） are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares （ICSS） algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity （SWGARCH） in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions： First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.
