粮食生产的产投分析

充足的粮食供应是人民生活最基础的物质保障。除口粮外,粮食是发展肉、奶、禽、蛋等畜产品生产、提高人民生活水平的重要条件。在京郊农业生产中粮食仍占重要地位,产出量级高,现代化投入水平亦高,价格高,粮食生产的比较效益相应较低,农民的种粮积极性下降,影响粮食生产的发展。本文试图通过对粮食生产的产投分析,探寻提高粮食生产经济效益的途径。

Cyclical fluctuations of real estate investment across regions in urban China

Taking the concrete conditions of each region into full consideration, the Chinese real estate market is divided into an eastern market, a central market and a western market. For each market, the autoregressive integrated moving average （ARMA） model is established and spectral analysis is carded out to better understand the changes in the real estate markets in each region. The results show the investment levels and several kinds of cycles within each market. The level of real estate investment （LREI）in the eastern region is the higiaest, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years; the LREI in the central region is in the middle, and the short cycle of investment is about 2 to 3 years; the LREI in the western region has been rapidly increasing in recent years, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years. Real estate investment in each area has reached a peak and completed a middle-cycle movement after a period of sustained recession and an upsurge process, which has taken about 9 to 10 years.

Agricultural Development of Nanjing Suburban Counties based on Contribution Models of Production Factors

According to data in Nanjing Statistical Yearbook, contribution made by agricultural production factors was analyzed with contribution models of agricultural factors and the results showed that with restriction of labor force and land, Nanjing suburban counties have entered into a stage of ＂high input-high output＂, considering no matter from agricultural total value of output or from agricultural added value. In future, structure configuration of agricultural input factors should be optimized in Nanjing suburban counties by technology input to improve agricultural technology and technical efficiency in order to further achieve sustainable development of agriculture.

Agricultural Input and Output in Jiangsu Province with Case Analysis

[Objective] The aim was to explore interrelationship between agricultural input and output in Jiangsu and the influence degrees of input factors on agricultur-al output. [Method] Quantitative analysis and evaluation were made on agricultural input and output in Jiangsu during 1990-2012 as per factor analysis and regression analysis. [Result] The result of factor analysis showed that since the 1990s, the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural input/output in Jiangsu was growing and in-put/output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, crop farming, and of food production were extracted, whose scores reflect the changes of input/output ef-ficiencies in terms of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, crop farming and food production in the two decades. The results of regression analysis indicated that the effects of the three indices on agricultural output tended to be volatile and the influence degrees were concluded also by regression parameters. [Conclusion] The research provides theoretical references for agricultural input/output structure in Jiangsu Province.

SOLVABILITY RESULTS OF A CONDITIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT EQUATION BASED ON A TYPE OF NONLINEAR LEONTIEF MODEL

A class of nonlinear and continuous type Leontief model and its corresponding conditional input-output equation are introduced, and two basic problems under the so called positive or negative boundary assumption are presented. By approaches of nonlinear analysis some solvability results of this equation and continuous perturbation properties of the relative solution sets are obtained, and some economic significance are illustrated by the remark.

Investment Risks of Agricultural Listed Companies from Visual Angle of Natural Disasters

The essential feature of agriculture is the interweave- ment of natural reproduction and economic reproduction.In recent years,the natural disasters have become more frequent and badly affect the production management and investment benefits.This problem has been an important risk in managing agricultural listed companies and cannot be ignored.It is of great importance to evaluate and prevent the risks of the natural disasters to enhance the competitive ability and increase the profits of those listed companies,thereby keeping the sustainable development of agri- cultural companies.

China’s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China's export trade has maintained a rapid growth;meanwhile,China's energy consumption has been increasing sharply. "High export and high energy consumption" has become the feature of China's trade and economic development.In this paper,based on the input-output analysis approach,the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors.The results show that,China is a big net exporter of embodied energy.Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%,the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years,and based on the input-output data of 2005,by 2030 China's net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production,which is obviously infeasible.As a country of very low per capita energy,China must change its export pattern,encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity,and promote structural change of energy-efficient exported products,so as to achieve the sustainable development.Accordingly,the authors put forward some suggestions.

Impact of Removal of City Gas Subsidies on Chinese Urban Residents

The current cost-plus natural gas pricing mechanism makes the gas price too low,resulting in a lot of consumer-side subsidies and over-consumed natural gas.This paper applies the price-gap approach and input-output analysis technology to quantitatively analyze both the direct and indirect effects on urban residents under the condition that natural gas subsidies are cancelled in China in 2007.It is shown that the gas price will increase by 33.3%-41.6%,and the residential consumption expenditure by 0.26%-0.33%.The low-income groups are mostly affected,so different subsidies should be implemented to make subsidies more efficient.

Empirically Analysis of the CO_2 Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China's entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China's total exports value because China's carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.

Input-Output Analysis of the Impact of Environmental Regulation on Chinese Industries

In this paper, we attempted to calculate the impact of environmental regulation on the international competitiveness of China＇s industries. Calculations are based on the input-output model that incorporates pollution control costs. We took enterprises ＇pollution control costs as the substitute variable for environmental regulation and price changes to measure the impact on international competitiveness for all sectors. Our studies reported three findings. First, price rises caused by pollution control costs were not more than 4 per cent in the manufacturing and trade sectors in 2007. Second, although the charging rate on pollutant discharge has become increasingly higher since 2003, the resultant price rise is only around O. 5 per cent across all sectors. Third, the impact brought about by increasingly stronger environmental regulation is limited and the resultant price rise does not exceed 2 per cent. Thesefindings indicate that the impact of environmental regulation on China＇s trade sectors is affordable. Therefore, it is needless to worry that environmental regulation will weaken the international competitiveness of Chinese products.

Grey analysis of the relationship between grain output and major input factor in Guizhou Province:1983-2005

Because conditions for the grain production are not favorable and the input in the production factors ofmodern agriculture is not sufficient, the grain supply has been less than the demand for a long time. By means of greycorrelation analysis, this paper deals with the correlation situation among such input factors as the grain sown area, thetotal power of agricultural machinery, the fertilizer utilization volume, the actual irrigation area, the damage area, thenumber of farming labor force, in order to understand the major restricting and driving forces that have affected thegrain output in the recent 23 years. The analysis shows that the grain sown area and fertilizer utilization volume are thetwo most important leading factors that affect grain production in Guizhou Province, while the damage area and the totalpower of the farming-used machines are the following factors. Fertilizer utilization volume and the actual agriculturalmachinery and irrigation area are the two increasingly influential factors that affect grain production. The influence of thefarming labor force upon grain production became less strong. The main measures to increase grain production outputin Guizhou Province are to stabilize the arable land, increase the actual irrigation area, expedite the transfer of thefarming labor force and increase the input of modern agriculture.

The Driving Forces of CO2 Emission in China： 2002-2007

This paper provides a computation on both the China＇s aggregate CO2 emission volume and the emission of each sector over the period of 2002-2007, based on the input-output analysis. Further analysis is also given on the various determinants of the change in the emission volume, with the aid of structural decomposition analysis （SDA） based on a residual-free method. Based on the input-output table of China in 2002 and 2007, the merge of sectors and the adjustment of price change have been made during the study. The emissions of carbon dioxide in China increased from 2,887.3 million ton to 5,664.6 million ton during 2002-2007. The average rate of increase is 13.3%, faster than the average rate of gross domestic product （GDP） growth 11.6% slightly. According to the process of SDA, the changes in emission are analyzed in terms of four different factors. Among the four factors studied in the paper, it is found that the change of emission intensity and structure of demand are the main reason of the decrease of emission, while production technology and scale effect increase the emission volume. The paper also finds that although the direct emission intensity decreased during the study period, the total emission intensity increased with the annual rate of 3.8%, which reflects the result of energy policy is not equal in different sectors.

Analysis of Real estate investment structure optimization based on investment sources

As the investment structure of economic structure has a direct impact on the industrial structure, economic structure and thus become the focus of research. However, due to the impact of the traditional planned economy system, for a long time, our focus on the expansion of investment scale, optimize investment structure and neglect, leading to low efficiency of investment, private investment is difficult to effectively start, optimizing economic structure adjustment difficulties and other problems. The paper has got a conclusion that the target of optimization of real estate investment and ways based on the status of investment of real estate, and integration analysis for real estate investment sources.

Life Cycle Input-Output Analysis Extended to Use, Disposal, and Recycling Stages Applied to Embodied CO2 Emissions of a Refrigerator

Input-output analysis is widely employed to analyze inventories of a product＇s embodied energy and environmental burdens. However, input-output analysis focuses only on the production stage and ignores other life cycle phases. Input-output analysis is not exactly a LCA （life cycle assessment） method in the strict sense of ISO 14040 standards, which must cover all stages of a product＇s life cycle, ＂from the cradle to the grave＂, so to speak. A tiered hybrid LCA is a useful tool that covers all life cycle stages by combining a process analysis with the input-output analysis method. This study aims to extend input-output analysis to the use, disposal, and recycling stages by using matrix-based method. The new method is applied to the analysis of the embodied CO2 emissions of a refrigerator as a case study. The entire life cycle C02 emissions are estimated to be 2.9 tons, including indirect emissions, and the reduction in CO2 emissions due to recycling steel scrap is calculated as 48.5 kg. The authors conclude that the new method enables a consistent inventory analysis for all life cycle stages by combining process and input-output methods.

The Utilization of Exotic Options in the Formation of Structured Products

This paper deals with the issue of investment certificate formation in the financial market. Investment certificate is a type of structured products, the value of which is derived from the value of an underlying asset. The underlying asset is usually a share in a company, a basket of shares, or an entire index, etc.. It can be stated that for every estimated development of an asset （growth, fall, and stagnation） or for every attitude to risks （conservative or aggressive investors）, there is a suitable kind of certificate. The main objective is to perform an analysis of the structured product--Austria/Germany Bond 3 and its guarantee certificate construction using digital-barrier options. The authors have found an alternative opportunity to the purchase of this certificate, i.e., investment in a bank deposit, together with a purchase of cash or nothing down and four-knock-out call options and a sale of cash or nothing down and four-knock-out put options. The authors prove that the alternative investment has the same profit profile as the certificate. The authors made this analysis with the objective to contribute to the intellectualization of investors.

Overheated Investment in Real Estate Inhibits Innovation:Verification and Analysis in China's Case

Whether rapid real estate investment growth inhibits China's innovation is a critical question for China's economic sustainability. Based on China's provincial panel data and using land supply as an instrumental variable for real estate investment growth, we arrived at the following findings after effectively controlling endogenous factors that could lead to estimation errors. First of all, the faster real estate investment grows in a province, the lower the growth rates of innovation and R&D spending and invention patent authorizations will be in the province, an indication that real estate directly inhibits innovation in China. Such inhibition is particularly pronounced in the industrial sectors. Secondly, in the context of rampant real estate investment, the biased loan maturity structure of China's financial system in favor of the real estate industry further inhibits innovation. This paper has verified the existence of the direct effect of real estate investment growth on regional innovation and its indirect effect on regional innovation through the biased long maturity structure of the financial system. The empirical findings of this paper provide practical policy implications for China to strike a balance between real estate development and an innovation-driven development strategy.

Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Decline in China's CO_2 Emission Intensity 2005–2010

Here we utilize input-output tables for 2005 and 2010 to calculate the change in carbon dioxide emission intensity. Results show that total carbon dioxide emissions were 6.79 and 9.30 billion tons, and carbon dioxide emission intensity was 0.37 and 0.33 ton per thousand CNY in 2005 and 2010, respectively. Carbon dioxide emission intensity declined 11% over these five years. We used structural decomposition analysis modeling to measure the effect of four factors on this reduction in intensity. We found that the contribution values of energy structure, energy efficiency, economic growth mode and economic structure were -0.001, -0.102, 0.050, and 0.013 ton per thousand CNY, respectively. Changes in energy efficiency and energy structure are major factors promoting decreases in carbon dioxide emission intensity; the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter. Economic growth mode and economic structure are major factors that increase carbon dioxide emission intensity, whereby the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter.

Analysis of China's Production- and Consumption-Based CO_2 Emission Inventories

China, as the biggest GHG emitter and the largest developing country, has been urged by international society to take responsibilities for reducing GHG, especially in the post-Kyoto commitment period. Currently, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC） assigns the responsibility to parties who produce the pollution, using the production-based GHG emissions inventories. In this article, we analyze the difference between China＇s production- and consumption- based emission inventories and conclude that consumption-based GHG emission inventories are preferred; as it is fair that whoever consumes the emission should pay for their consumption. In addition, in order to consider environmental justice, policy-makers should take both economic and administrative measures to support poor provinces for reducing C02 emissions.

Development of the Physical Input Monetary Output Model for Understanding Material Flows within Ecological-Economic Systems

利用经济投入产出表所提供的经济数据以及物质流分析所提供的社会代谢数据,建立了物质投入价值产出(PIMO)模型对生态经济系统的代谢进行量化分析。该模型基于一系列经济部门的物质平衡方程,可以较为方便地对生态经济系统的物质代谢进行模拟和分析。以中国为例,本文对该模型的建立和使用进行了演示,各类经济活动对生态经济系统代谢的影响得到了量化。

Input-Occupancy-Output Analysis of Industrial Wastewater Discharge Coeffcients and Backward and Forward Linkages: Multi-Regional Occupancy

This paper provides an extended input-occupancy-output analysis of wastewater discharge coeffcients, as well as backward and forward linkages of Chinese multi-regional industrial sectors in2007. The results show that the direct and total industrial wastewater discharge coeffcients of most of the provincial industrial sectors in China＇s Eastern region are lower than those of the whole country.Both backward and forward linkages of fixed-asset occupancy in industrial sectors in China＇s Central and Western regions are strong. The dissimilarity of cross-sectional data of the relevant industrial wastewater discharge coeffcients and linkages in multi-regional input-output analysis becomes bigger as regions are divided more extensively.