基于Web of science数据库搜集的1442篇文献资料,采用Meta分析方法确定PM_(2.5)污染与居民不同健康终点之间的暴露反应系数.在此基础上,本文选取2015年PM_(2.5)浓度遥感数据、公里格网人口数据及人口死亡统计数据,借助Poisson回归模型...基于Web of science数据库搜集的1442篇文献资料,采用Meta分析方法确定PM_(2.5)污染与居民不同健康终点之间的暴露反应系数.在此基础上,本文选取2015年PM_(2.5)浓度遥感数据、公里格网人口数据及人口死亡统计数据,借助Poisson回归模型评估京津冀大气污染传输通道城市1 km×1 km尺度上PM_(2.5)污染的死亡效应.结果表明:①PM_(2.5)污染与人口总死亡率、循环系统疾病死亡率、呼吸系统疾病死亡率和肺癌死亡率等存在显著的暴露反应关系,其中,PM_(2.5)浓度每增加10μg·m^(-3),对应健康终点死亡率分别上升5.67%(95%Confidence Interval(CI):3.87%～8.29%)、6.93%(95%CI:3.92%～12.25%)、4.78%(95%CI:1.31%～17.51%)和9.55%(95%CI:3.67%～24.86%).②PM_(2.5)污染成为诱致人口死亡的重要因素,2015年京津冀大气污染传输通道城市PM_(2.5)污染造成的死亡人数为307599人,占据总死亡人数的28.64%.其中,死于循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病和肺癌的人数分别为183084、21096和32203人.③实施严格的PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标将给居民带来极大的健康收益,如果能够达成世界卫生组织4个阶段的PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标,京津冀大气污染传输通道城市可避免的死亡人数分别为144236、197167、253180和282401人,与基准年相比分别下降46.89%、64.10%、82.31%和91.81%.展开更多
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is currently facing severe complex air pollution. In this paper, simultaneous observations conducted in 2014 show that the annual mean concentration of fine particulate ma...The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is currently facing severe complex air pollution. In this paper, simultaneous observations conducted in 2014 show that the annual mean concentration of fine particulate matter （PM2.5） was 84 ± 70, 86 ±60, and 118 ± 95 μg m-3 in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang, respectively. The mean 03 8h max in the summer was 171 ± 43, 147 ± 45, and 146 ± 44 μg m-3, respectively. This research indicates that PM2.5 and O3 are positively correlated when the temperature exceeds 20 ℃5 and the urban agglomeration shows characteristics of complex air pollution consisting of superimposed 03 and PM2.s. In summer, when the humidity was less than 55%, secondary particles and 03 also increased in a coordinated manner （y = 1.35x ＋ 29.85; R2 = 0.61）, which demonstrates severe complex pollution. However, the mean PM2.5（y） and mean 03 8 h max （x） in summer showed a negative correlation （y = - 1.3x ＋ 245; R2 = 0.61 ） in the three regions, indicating high concentrations of PM2.5 pollution partially inhibit O3 generation.展开更多
基金partially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[grant numbers 2016YFC0202001,973Program 2014CB441200]National Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure,National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China(http://www.geodata.cn)
文摘The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is currently facing severe complex air pollution. In this paper, simultaneous observations conducted in 2014 show that the annual mean concentration of fine particulate matter （PM2.5） was 84 ± 70, 86 ±60, and 118 ± 95 μg m-3 in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang, respectively. The mean 03 8h max in the summer was 171 ± 43, 147 ± 45, and 146 ± 44 μg m-3, respectively. This research indicates that PM2.5 and O3 are positively correlated when the temperature exceeds 20 ℃5 and the urban agglomeration shows characteristics of complex air pollution consisting of superimposed 03 and PM2.s. In summer, when the humidity was less than 55%, secondary particles and 03 also increased in a coordinated manner （y = 1.35x ＋ 29.85; R2 = 0.61）, which demonstrates severe complex pollution. However, the mean PM2.5（y） and mean 03 8 h max （x） in summer showed a negative correlation （y = - 1.3x ＋ 245; R2 = 0.61 ） in the three regions, indicating high concentrations of PM2.5 pollution partially inhibit O3 generation.
