法庭科学人为判断方法的科学有效性与方法确认标准研究

近年来,以人的判断为主的鉴定方法的科学有效性备受质疑,这包括方法的重复性、复现性与错误率等没有得到量化的评价,产生的鉴定意见主观性强,准确性难以评判等。但是,随着一些国际组织和国家政府加大研发投入,激发了科学家们的研究热情,使这些问题得到了不同程度的解答。本文通过对相关研究成果的归纳分析,反映出各国在人为判断方法确认的量化评价指标和程序要求方面日趋严谨,将法庭科学与统计学、信息技术等融合,开展跨学科的新方法研发,成为主观鉴定方法转换为客观方法的方向,但是,进行量化评价的实验研究依然处于量变的积累期,尚未成熟。对我国而言,追赶的关键在于,尽快提出自己的人为判断方法确认标准,为评估现有方法和开发新方法奠定基础;组建跨学科的专家团队,加大与量化评价相关的实验研究和计算机方法研发力度。

Evaluation of the propensity for coal spontaneous combustion based on catastrophe theory

Generally, different prevention measures should be taken according to spontaneous combustion propensities. The current methods to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion, such as chromatographic method of oxygen adsorption, oxidation kinetics method and activation energy method, are mostly affected by human factors. Their boundaries among different classes of propensities were all established by subjective judgments. A new evaluation method using catastrophe theory is introduced. This method can accurately depict the process of coal spontaneous combustion and the evaluation index, ＂catastrophe temperature＂, be obtained based on the model. In terms of catastrophe temperature, the spontaneous combustion propensity of different coals can be sequenced. Experimental data indicate that this method is appropriate to describe the spontaneous combustion process and to evaluate the propensity of coal svontaneous combustion.