航空人为差错事故/事件分析(ECAR)模型研究

为深入研究航空人为差错事故/事件的影响因素,以人为差错相关理论为基础,对比分析几种典型的人为差错分析模型;通过借鉴ECCAIRS分析框架,并在基元事件分析(EEAM)逻辑和CCAR396部的分类方法基础上,构建航空人为差错事故/事件分析(ECAR)模型,它从事件层、描述层、原因层和组织因素与改进建议层,分析航空事故和不安全事件的人为差错。此外,还将组织因素概念引入该模型。

基于人为干扰预警评价的自然保护地整合优化方法研究

在我国积极推动绿色发展,促进人与自然和谐共生的背景下,对自然保护地整合优化流程进行探讨具有重要的意义。在总结现有方法和步骤的基础上,以人为干扰评价、生态本底评价和人为干扰空间预警评价结果为依据,以整合归并、功能区划分和边界优化为主要步骤的自然保护地整合优化流程,以期为我国自然保护地整合优化工作的进一步深入推进提供参考。

科学研究中人类疾病动物模型的应用及特点

人类应用动物进行科学研究起源较早,人类疾病动物模型在维护人类健康方面有重大贡献。根据来源将其分为自发模型和人为模型两种,可用于研究疾病的病因病机,检验与比较各种治法疗效,探求新的治疗手段及研制开发新药,研究药物的体内过程以指导安全用药等方面。动物模型具有相似性、普遍适用性、典型性、特殊性、可发展性、可重复和可靠性等优点;但亦有简单化、不确定性、指标模糊及物种差异等不足之处。为此,重点探讨动物模型的种类、主要作用及优缺点等问题,使之在科学研究中发挥更大作用。

基于变异系数的植被NPP人为影响定量研究——以石羊河流域为例

人类活动是NPP变化的重要影响因子,定量计算NPP人为影响值具有较重要的意义。提出基于变异系数法的NPP人为影响模型,对其基本概念、理论基础、计算流程等进行了阐述,并以石羊河流域为研究区,分析该流域NPP人为影响分布规律。研究结果表明:(1)该模型基于一种间接计算的思想回避了人为作用的复杂过程,模型理论科学,以变异系数为参数,所需参数少,技术可行,计算结果为NPP值,易于定量评价。(2)2000—2010年期间,石羊河流域人类活动对植被NPP的影响广泛而严重,年均影响值大于40g C m^(-2)a^(-1)的面积占96.21%,影响程度严重以上占26.94%。NPP人为正负影响均较大,正影响年均为1.63×106g C m^(-2)a^(-1),负影响年均为1.21×106g C m^(-2)a^(-1),年均净增加4.20×105g C m^(-2)a^(-1);正向平均影响强度为136.84 g C m^(-2)a^(-1),负向平均影响强度为100.32 g C m^(-2)a^(-1),全流域表现为正影响。(3)凉州区是人为影响最为剧烈的地区,表现为强烈正影响;其次是天祝县,为强烈负影响;接下来是民勤县,表现为正影响;其它县区依次是永昌、古浪、肃南和金昌。(4)2000—2010期间,NPP人为影响值变化较大,人为活动减弱面积占53.90%,增加占46.10%;影响值正向减弱8.12×105g C m^(-2)a^(-1),负向减弱8.07×105g C m^(-2)a^(-1),正向增强8.02×105g C m^(-2)a^(-1),负向增强3.94×105g C m^(-2)a^(-1),人为活动影响净减少4.25×105g C m^(-2)a^(-1),人为作用总体呈减弱趋势。

运用HFACS模型对一起通风管道爆燃事故的起因分析

爆燃事故是高校实验室较为频发的安全事故,为实验室事故防治的重中之重。针对某高校生化实验室发生的通风系统爆燃事故,运用人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)模型从组织影响、不安全的监督、不安全行为的前提条件和不安全行为四个方面对该起事故的起因进行深入分析,查找具体安全隐患。分析表明,该起事故是由于实验室通风设备设计不合理及设备老化,管理混乱、操作人员安全意识淡薄等多种因素导致的石油醚爆燃事故。针对以上问题,本文从设备配置、制度完善和人员管理三个方面提出了预防实验室爆燃事故的具体措施。

陕北植被净初级生产力人为影响定量测评与分析

运用人为影响测评模型定量测算陕北植被净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)人为影响值,揭示植被人为影响的时空变化规律及影响因素。结果表明:1)2001—2014,陕北人类活动对植被NPP整体呈现正向影响增强、负向影响减弱的年际变化趋势,负向影响年均降低3.40 g/(m2·a),正向影响年均增加0.91 g/(m2·a);2)人类活动对植被NPP的正向和负向影响均以增强趋势为主,呈极显著和显著变化的正向影响增强区主要位于府谷县、神木县中部窟野河沿线的丘陵沟壑区以及榆阳区与米脂县交界处的榆溪河湿地,而呈极显著和显著变化的负向影响增强区则主要分布在北部能源区以及中东部农牧区;3)生态建设、能源生产、城市扩张及土地利用开发是影响植被NPP变化的主要人为影响因子。结果显示:生态治理成效已显现,但北部能源区和南部农业区人为负向影响增强趋势明显,应进一步加大生态治理力度。植被NPP人为影响定量研究是区域生态系统人为影响定量研究的基础,可为区域水土保持服务与社会经济发展权衡分析奠定基础。

基于航空事故的人为差错模型教学方案设计

“人为因素与航空法规”是航空器维修类专业的必修课程,涵盖人为因素基本理论及模型、人体局限性、差错管理、国内外航空维修法规体系、维修人员/单位/培训机构管理法规文件等内容。基于对课程内容及框架的分析,选取人为差错模型作为研究重点,结合典型的航空事故,构建了以单案例为主、多案例为辅的人为差错模型模块的教学方案。通过改进教学设计及实施,希望可以帮助学生深入理解和掌握人为因素中抽象的理论知识和模型,为之后的航空法规学习打下基础。

APPLICATION OF HUMAN COGNITIVE MODEL FOR TIME DEPENDENT OPERATOR BEHAVIOR IN CHINESE NPP

This paper discusses some issues on human reliability model of time dependent human behavior. Some results of the crew reliability experiment on Tsinghua training simulator in China are given, Meanwhile, a case of calculation for human error probability during anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) based on the data drew from the recent experiment is offered.

Hybrid tracking model and GSLM based neural network for crowd behavior recognition

Crowd behaviors analysis is the‘state of art’research topic in the field of computer vision which provides applications in video surveillance to crowd safety,event detection,security,etc.Literature presents some of the works related to crowd behavior detection and analysis.In crowd behavior detection,varying density of crowds and motion patterns appears to be complex occlusions for the researchers.This work presents a novel crowd behavior detection system to improve these restrictions.The proposed crowd behavior detection system is developed using hybrid tracking model and integrated features enabled neural network.The object movement and activity in the proposed crowded behavior detection system is assessed using proposed GSLM-based neural network.GSLM based neural network is developed by integrating the gravitational search algorithm with LM algorithm of the neural network to increase the learning process of the network.The performance of the proposed crowd behavior detection system is validated over five different videos and analyzed using accuracy.The experimentation results in the crowd behavior detection with a maximum accuracy of 93%which proves the efficacy of the proposed system in video surveillance with security concerns.

Using Successive Multi-Goals Method in the Individual-Based Model to Simulate Crowd Behavior during Evacuation Processes

The fact of proportional population growth in many countries drags the attention of researchers in the field of crowd dynamics to the need for developing reliable models to predict the behavior of human crowds in emergency situations such as evacuation processes. Computer based models that simulate human crowd dynamics prove to offer the optimum way to predict the crowd realistic behavior especially in emergency situations. This paper presents a vital extension of my previous work in which an individual-based model to simulate the behavior of human crowd was developed using the artificial potential fields to describe the interaction forces between each crowd member and the environment on one side and amongst the crowd members on the other side to add realistic flavor to the predicted crowd behavior. In this paper, the successive multi-goals （SMG） method, which is a new method to represent the environment in which the crowd moves, is developed. Rather than using the traditional static potential field, the successive multi-goals method uses a dynamic potential field which is vital to solve the reactive problem that is considered as a drawback of the model when simulating the human crowd behavior during evacuation of buildings whose structures are complex such as bottlenecks and narrow corridors. Numerical results that match the real behavior of human individuals in emergency situations prove the efficiency of the new method to solve the problem on an individual basis as well as its applicability.

Modeling of Operators' Workload in a Nuclear Power Plant

Accidents in a nuclear power plant are coped with by operators in the main control room (MCR). An analysis of the workload of operators in a MCR after the happening of initiating events is helpful to the alleviation of human errors and to the promotion of training efficiency. This paper establishes a framework of how man is located in a man-machine interface of a nuclear power plant (NPP) as well as a simulation of the man-machine scenario in accidents in NPPs, including the simulation of the operators' task and cognitive work and the establishment of task analysis. On the basis of the above, a model of the dynamic changes of the operators' tasks is constructed and a computation of operators' workload is conducted.

Religion as Conscious Cognition and Behavior

Cognitive and behavioral research on religion has focused most in the last years on aspects which could be deemed ＂unconscious＂： inner mechanisms, innate patterns, or hidden cognitive structures broadly shared by humans. Very often, the ongoing research programs resort to computational models of mind in which the conscious side of that experience is mainly ignored. It becomes urgent to fill in the perceived gap, suggesting some lines of study that are able to account for the conscious dimensions of religion. An opportunity is offered by the new paths recently opened by extensive experimental research on conscious aspects of human experience and the value that leads authors to attribute to these features. Seizing on this opportunity, the paper reviews the state of the question and the available literature on conscious and unconscious aspects of mind and behavior. Taking it a step further, the paper tries to apply these general principles to the specific study of religious mind and behavior. Furthermore, some lines for future research are proposed as a result of the suggested program.

Expressive Aspect of Phallia-autocracy in an Indigenous African Society： The Case of Yoruba Proverbs

The patriarchal leaning of most traditional African communities is sign-posted by certain behavioural models which place the woman at the receiving end of certain prejudices in our cultural milieu. Such prejudices manifest in diverse behavioural and relational manners that either peripheralize the woman or out-rightly remove every vestige of human dignity from her being. Language, being a significant carrier of our emotions, biases, beliefs, preference and prejudices, provides a crucial platform for the interrogation of the nature of gender relations and their consequences in any society, such consideration has forced a preponderance of scholarly interest in gender studies in arts and humanities. This study caries out a scholarly investigate into such gender inspired biases through the prison of Yoruba proverbs as a reflection of our cultural practices and beliefs about the position of the woman in a typical traditional Yoruba setting

Human Body Behavior as Response on Autonomous Maneuvers, Based on ATD and Human Model

In the near future, active safety systems will take more control over the vehicle driving, even up to introducing fully autonomous vehicles. Nowadays, it is expected that the active safety systems will aid avoiding collisions much more efficiently than human drivers. These systems can protect not only the passengers, but also other road users. To mitigate collision, certain maneuvers （e.g., sudden braking, lane change, etc.） need to be done in a reasonably quick time. However, this may lead to low-g energy pulses. The latter fact, may cause unexpected and, in some cases, unwanted occupant body motion resulting even in OOP （out of position） postures. New patterns of occupant reactions in such cases are, to some extent, confirmed experimentally [1-3]. This paper evaluates the limits of standard ATDs （anthropometric test devices） and chosen human models in well established maneuver scenarios. Obtained results are compared with experimental data available in the literature. Drawbacks identify new challenges for the near future simulation based safety engineering. One scenario with combined conditions of emergency braking during lane change has been used as an example of OOP posture after maneuver.

Nay or Jain Nyay 1： Existence Inferred from Affirmed Assertions

The Jain logic （Nay） addresses concerns elicited by sense experience of observable and measurable reality. Reality is what it is, and it exists independent of the observer. The last Jain Tirthankar Mahaveer suggested that organisms interact with such realities for survival needs and become concerned about the consequences. He suggested a code of conduct for reality-based behaviors to address concerns. Perceptions and impressions provide measures （praman） of information in sense experience, and with other evidence guide choices and decisions to act and bear consequences. Ethical behaviors rooted in reality have desirable consequences, and inconsistent and contradictory behaviors are undesirable consequences. Omniscience （God, Brahm） is discarded as a self-referential ad hoc construct inconsistent and contradictory to real world behaviors. This article is survey of assumptions and models to represent, interpret, and validate knowledge that begins with logical deduction for inference （anuman） based on evidence from sense experience （Jain 2011）. Secular and atheistic thrust of thought and practice encourages reasoning and open-ended search with affirmed assertions and independent evidence. Individual identity （atm） emerges with consistent behaviors to overcome fallibility and unreliability by minimizing doubt （Syad-Saptbhangi Nay）. The first Tirthankar Rishabh Nath （ca. 2700 BC） suggested that the content （sat） of real and abstract objects and concerns during a change is conserved as the net balance of the inputs and outputs （Tatia 1994）. Identity and content of assertions and evidence is also conserved during logical manipulations for reasoning. Each assertion and its negation are to be affirmed with independent evidence, and lack of evidence for presence is not necessarily the evidence for either non-absence or non-existence.

Means-End Chain Model Framework for Measuring Housing Environment Choice Behavior

Housing and housing space has been a place for personal development, recreation and self accentuation. The need for housing and housing space quality can therefore not be overemphasized. The need for housing remains a constant index for all societies through the ages. Housing is a complex and heterogeneous product in its setting, the cognitive structures of housing users for housing attributes is also complex as well as their choice behaviors. Means-End Chain （MEC） model has been found to be very effective and potent in measuring these complexities. This conceptual paper explores from literature the MEC model and attempts to propagate its use as a research model for housing research, environment-behavior studies and person-environment congruence. It also presents the methodology employed by MEC for data collection and data management. It will suggest an extension to the traditional methodology that MEC utilizes. The possibility of extending the previous methods and their applicability in design process is herein presented; and to make a case for the usability of MEC model as a research tool for housing researchers. In dealing with user preference of housing, there is a need for research for a development of a technological tool for the identification of user needs and preference, and the kind of decision support that are required to identify these needs.

RMB Appreciation, Corporate Behavior and Export Trade：

This paper sets up a simplified dynamic discrete selection model to analyze two-stage decision of corporate export behavior and influence of exchange rate under the framework of profit maximization. Then we adopt Heckman selection model to estimate general effects and structural effects of RMB appreciation on export based on the sample data of China Industrial Enterprises from 2005 to 2009. Findings reveal that RMB appreciation has exerted a significant negative impact to corporate export through extensive margins and intensive margins. Meanwhile, due to different corporate strategies of heterogeneous enterprises, RMB appreciation cannot achieve the expected effect of ＂survival of the fittest＂ and is instead unfavorable to the optimization of export structure. RMB appreciatiou drives industry structure of export to evolve towards advanced levels to a certain extent. However, such a positive effect mainly derives from the contribution of foreign-funded enterprises while restricting development space of indigenous firms in the sector of advanced manufacturing.

A Holistic Model for the Development of Entrepreneurial Competencies of the Entrepreneur XXI： The Tree Model

In the present article it will be critically questioned the traditional entrepreneurship education approaches based on a narrow conception of competency, and their values. Assuming the perspective that to be an entrepreneur is basically an attitude towards life and the world, there proposed holistic, constructivist and experiential processes and strategies for entrepreneurship education. The ＂entrepreneur XXI＂, must be able to undertake a social function of change, so, an economical and social development more human, ethical and intelligent. Under this assumption, the ＂Tree Model for the Development of Entrepreneurial Competencies＂, that will be discussed globally in the second part of this article, suggests a dynamic and experiential approach ofentrepreneurship education based on the qualification of people＇s behaviour, self-esteem, competencies and experiences; a profile of key behavioural and performance competencies （root）, experimental pedagogical procedures （trunk） and real results within group projects （fruits）. This model has been developed during the last decade （2001-2011）, using a multidisciplinary research-action procedure, within business, education （at different teaching levels） and social project environments.

2000—2010年石羊河流域NPP时空变化及驱动因子

基于MODIS卫星遥感数据,研究石羊河流域2000—2010年植被NPP的时空分布与变异特征,分析其与气候变化和人为影响的关系,并建立NPP人为影响模型。结果表明:石羊河流域NPP总量先升后降,在2002年达到顶点,再逐年下降,但下降过程中呈现一种周期起伏特征;整体来看,NPP变化与降雨呈明显的正相关性,与气温相关性不明显;局部地区来看,NPP与降雨显著相关,有些地区NPP与气温相关性也较强;年降雨量相关分界线为380与170mm,>380mm的地区气温为主导因子,介于170～380m的地区主导因子是降雨,<170mm的地区,降雨与人为影响共同主导。分析表明,2000—2010年,在人为作用下,石羊河流域植被NPP值年际增加量为2353.86gC·m-2·a-1,表明该流域生态环境治理工程实施后,植被覆盖状况得到一定的改善。从植被类型来看,草地受人为影响的正向与负向作用均最为剧烈;农田受人为影响也很明显,耕种方式的改进与管理措施提高使NPP增加;绿洲边缘的戈壁植被、盐碱地植被、沙地植被、林地等受人为影响基本为正向,植被覆盖面积与质量均有所增加。

Regional Ecological Vulnerability Assessment of the Guangxi Xijiang River Economic Belt in Southwest China with VSD Model

The interactive effects of natural and human factors on ecosystems have been well studied, and the quantitative assessment of large-scale ecological vulnerability caused by natural and human factors is now one of the most active topics in the ifeld. Taking the Guangxi Xijiang River Economic Belt in southwest China （GXEB） as a case study, we assess ecological vulnerability based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram （VSD） model. The indices system is decomposed into three sub objects, ten elements and 25 indicators layer by layer, which included factors from both natural and human ifelds. Results indicate that zones with lower, middle-lower, middle, middle-higher and higher vulnerability account for 11.31%, 22.63%, 27.60%, 24.39%, and 14.07%, respectively. The western and eastern parts of GXEB are more vulnerable than the central part and the mountain and urban areas are of higher vulnerability than the basins and river valleys. Compared with a vulnerability assessment based on natural factors only, it is concluded that human activities indeed cause the transition from naturally stable zones to vulnerable zones. The nature-dominated vulnerable zones are different with human-dominated ones in size and distribution, the latter being smaller, more scattered and distributed in urban areas and their surroundings. About 53%of total construction land is distributed in zones with middle and middle-higher ecological vulnerability;less vulnerable zones should attract construction in the future. Relevant suggestions are proposed on how to reduce vulnerability according to inducing factors. The VSD model has a signiifcant advantage in the quantitative evaluation of ecological vulnerability, but is insufficient to distinguish nature- or human-dominated vulnerability quantitatively.