不确定性视野下的人口研究与应对

在当前全球不确定性因素不断增多的背景下,深入认识人口不确定性的性质、来源及其在人口预测与政策应对中的作用显得尤为重要。研究发现,人口不确定性是人口系统的内在规定性,且在现代社会诸多不确定性因素相互交织作用下,呈现出不断增大的趋势。虽然人口不确定性无法被完全消除,但我们可以在深化不确定性认识的基础上,采取积极的应对策略,将人口不确定性的不利影响控制在可知、可控的范围内,并充分发挥不确定性在多样性创造力上的潜力。在中国人口规模巨大的现代化进程中,充分利用技术、知识和治理的优势,可以构建具有灵活性、适应性的人口及相关政策体系,促进人口高质量发展。

不确定性对人口趋势研判及决策的影响——以中国人口为例

不确定性是人口动态过程的基本特征,受到社会经济、文化技术等诸多因素的影响,并伴随着人类社会的演化而不断变化。科学处理人口不确定性是进行知情决策的关键。在梳理人口不确定性的来源、形成机制和特点,以及对确定性预测和随机人口预测的优缺点进行总结和评析的基础上,实证剖析了近年来中国出生人口数、总人口规模以及区域人口规划的不确定性,阐释忽视不确定性可能造成的对人口形势的误判,讨论如何正确解读随机人口预测结果和人口不确定性的政策含义。中国亟需深化人口不确定性理论和方法领域的研究,加强随机预测方法的应用与推广,为应对不断增长的人口不确定性和提高人口知情决策的科学性和实用性提供坚实的基础。

Climate Refugee and Disappearing States： In Need for a New Legal Regime？

Climate change brings unprecedented challenges to both the international community as well as international law. For example, extreme weather conditions might cause States to disappear and force its populations to migrate. These phenomenon creates new challenges for current international law. First, under current legal frameworks, there is no provision regarding the disappearance of a State due to climate change. Second, for people who are forced to migrate due to climate change whether caused internally or internationally, current legal framework is also unclear to whether they could be classified as refugees and to what extent should they be protected. Despite these uncertainties, people of these endangered States cannot be left to fend themselves simply because there is a legal vacuum. This paper proposes a way forward for to meet this challenge and urge the international community to use this opportunity to refine the currently existing legal regime in order to solve the various challenges posed by climate change.