Setting China’s Growth Target Based on the Potential Growth Rate

Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a growth target. Official promulgation of non-binding targets will guide social expectation, assist in government policy-making, boost confidence in consumers, and provide guidance for producers and investors. Based on our estimation results, we suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, a GDP growth target between 6. 5% and 7% would be appropriate.

A new algorithm for estimating gillnet selectivity

The estimation of gear selectivity is a critical issue in fishery stock assessment and management.Several methods have been developed for estimating gillnet selectivity,but they all have their limitations,such as inappropriate objective function in data fitting,lack of unique estimates due to the difficulty in finding global minima in minimization,biased estimates due to outliers,and estimations of selectivity being influenced by the predetermined selectivity functions.In this study,we develop a new algorithm that can overcome the above-mentioned problems in estimating the gillnet selectivity.The proposed algorithms include minimizing the sum of squared vertical distances between two adjacent points and minimizing the weighted sum of squared vertical distances between two adjacent points in the presence of outliers.According to the estimated gillnet selectivity curve,the selectivity function can also be determined.This study suggests that the proposed algorithm is not sensitive to outliers in selectivity data and improves on the previous methods in estimating gillnet selectivity and relative population density of fish when a gillnet is used as a sampling tool.We suggest the proposed approach be used in estimating gillnet selectivity.

Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling:Yiwu City as a Destination

Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-referenced migration data.Meanwhile,few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration analysis.Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008,the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels.The spatial layout of Yiwu's pull forces is proved as a V-shaped pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method.Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable,two models are compared using ordinary least square,spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces.The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the model fitting results.The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui.The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model.The correlation between per capita net income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui.Further analysis shows that the distance,income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.However,as the dynamic population floating process evolves,the determinant factor would be migration stock.

Training for Tourism Companies Staff Against Human Trafficking

Human trafficking, involving mostly women and children, is closely related to the tourism businesses, because traffickers use often through their complicity, which including various companies： airports, trains, hotels, etc.. This work1 aims to analyze the effectiveness of training as a tool for monitoring and preventing this crime. After data and information collecting on the issue of human trafficking and links with the tourism industry, we analyzed the main training toolkits provided by organizations which deal with the prevention and monitoring of this phenomenon, two questionnaires were built and sent： the first questionnaire was sent to 136 organizations that are training for the staff of tourism companies; it aims to detect the educational needs that the organizations want to satisfy, the educational target, teaching techniques, and the results obtained with the training; the second questionnaire was sent to 495 companies who participating in the courses, explores the motivations, the educational objectives, and results related to the training received. Through this work, the authors only present the first results obtained during the first phase, involving the point of view of seven organizations offering training courses. The answers provided by the companies show that the learning targets have been fully achieved, in particular with regard to raising awareness on the issue. Still, some gaps with regard to the support that the training may offer in the development of new attitudes and skills to prevent and monitor the phenomenon. The course contents and teaching techniques used appear to be consistent with the objectives. All of the organizations interviewed carried out the evaluation of the course learning demonstrate how companies training participants are satisfied with the results, especially in terms of knowledge and skills to contribute to the prevention of an increasing phenomenon, while less significant are the advantages about the decrease of concrete human trafficking situations.

调整生育政策应对老龄化

我们总是片面强调对人口数量的控制,而忽视人口结构的变化。根据国家统计局最新发布的数据,2011年末全国60岁及以上人口为18499万人,占总人口的13.7%;65岁及以上人口达到12288万人,占总人口的9.1%。过去10年间,我国65岁以上老年人口增加了3226万,年平均增长速度超过3%。