China＇s Transition Phase and Long-Term Development Path, Efficiency and Growth Rates

This paper examines the transition of growth stage China is about to experience and the main conclusions are as follows： （1） Phase Ⅰ of economic growth driven by investment and export is losing the momentum of efficiency enhancement through intervention and the growth stage of efficiency enhancement through structural adjustment is coming to an end. Urbanization and the development of service sector will inaugurate Phase Ⅱ of stable economic growth characterized by structural optimization through efficiency enhancement; （2） Three leading factors promoting the transition from Phase Ⅰ to Phase Ⅱ include： demographic changes and the emergence of workforce turning point, the reversion of factor elasticity parameters of long-term growth function, and service-oriented economic structure; （3） Developed provinces and municipalities in east China have already entered into the channel of economic deceleration. With increasing urbanization rate, accelerating service-oriented structure and declining demographic dividend after 2016, China＇s economic slowdown would be inevitable if labor productivity fails to improve.

基于人口视角对欧债危机的社会观察--对中国的警示和启示

欧债危机是欧洲人口结构与经济结构、福利结构、政治结构之间的系统性失衡。在"低生育率陷阱"中,高度的老龄化和沉重的抚养比从根本上撼动了福利国家的人口基础,导致经济低迷和债台高筑,并使得人口结构性变化的影响从经济领域扩展至社会和政治层面。欧债危机对于同样处在人口、经济和社会的结构性变化时期的中国而言是一个警示。在人口老龄化、抚养比提高、劳动年龄人口规模和比重下降、经济增长减速和面临中等收入陷阱威胁、社会转型和社会利益关系格局重构等多重挑战下,中国应该汲取欧债危机的教训,保持人口结构的生产性与消费性的长期均衡,加大人力资本投资和建立具有弹性的劳动力市场,建立激励型并适应未来人口结构变化的社会保障制度。