Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide.Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each fa...Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide.Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each factor are essential for the management of forest fire occurrence.The objective of this study is to identify variables that are spatially related to the occurrence and incidence of the forest fire in the State of Durango,Mexico.For this purpose,data from forest fire records for a five-year period were analyzed.The spatial correlations between forest fire occurrence and intensity of land use,susceptibility of vegetation,temperature,precipitation and slope were tested by Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) method,under an Ordinary Least Square estimator.Results show that the spatial pattern of the forest fire in the study area is closely correlated with the intensity of land use,and land use change is one of the main explanatory variables.In addition,vegetation type and precipitation are also the main driving factors.The fitting model indicates obvious link between the variables.Forest fire was found to be the consequence of a particular combination of the environmental factors,and when these factors coexist with human activities,there is high probability of forest fire occurrence.Mandatory regulation of human activities is a key strategy for forest fire prevention.展开更多
It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces...It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Mexican National Council for Science and Technology (No 2008-01-87972)
文摘Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide.Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each factor are essential for the management of forest fire occurrence.The objective of this study is to identify variables that are spatially related to the occurrence and incidence of the forest fire in the State of Durango,Mexico.For this purpose,data from forest fire records for a five-year period were analyzed.The spatial correlations between forest fire occurrence and intensity of land use,susceptibility of vegetation,temperature,precipitation and slope were tested by Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) method,under an Ordinary Least Square estimator.Results show that the spatial pattern of the forest fire in the study area is closely correlated with the intensity of land use,and land use change is one of the main explanatory variables.In addition,vegetation type and precipitation are also the main driving factors.The fitting model indicates obvious link between the variables.Forest fire was found to be the consequence of a particular combination of the environmental factors,and when these factors coexist with human activities,there is high probability of forest fire occurrence.Mandatory regulation of human activities is a key strategy for forest fire prevention.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41401113,No.41371002,No.41471091The Science and Technology Strategic Pilot of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA05090310The Key Project of Physical Geography of Hebei Province
文摘It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.
