Two stochastic models are derived for a susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemic spreading through a metapopulation： a continuous time Markov chain （CTMC） model and an It6 stochastic differential equation （SDE...Two stochastic models are derived for a susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemic spreading through a metapopulation： a continuous time Markov chain （CTMC） model and an It6 stochastic differential equation （SDE） model. The stochastic models are numerically compared. Close agreement suggests that computationally intense CTMC simulations can be approximated by simpler SDE simulations. Differential equations for the moments of the SDE probability distribution are also derived, the steady states are solved numerically using a moment closure technique, and these results are compared to simulations. The moment closure technique only coarsely approximates simulation results. The effect of model parameters on stability of the disease-free equilibrium is also numerically investigated.展开更多
In this paper, to better understand the impact of awareness and the network structure on epidemic transmission, we divide the population into four subpopulations corresponding to different physical states and consciou...In this paper, to better understand the impact of awareness and the network structure on epidemic transmission, we divide the population into four subpopulations corresponding to different physical states and conscious states, and we first propose a modified disease- awareness model, then verify the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilib- ria, and finally present numerical simulations to demonstrate the theoretical analysis. By examining the spreading influences of model parameters, we find that the outbreak scale can be effectively controlled through increasing the spread rate of awareness or reducing the rate of awareness loss. That is to say, all sorts of media publicity are meaningful. Meanwhile, we find that infection will be affected by consciousness through the control variable.展开更多
文摘Two stochastic models are derived for a susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemic spreading through a metapopulation： a continuous time Markov chain （CTMC） model and an It6 stochastic differential equation （SDE） model. The stochastic models are numerically compared. Close agreement suggests that computationally intense CTMC simulations can be approximated by simpler SDE simulations. Differential equations for the moments of the SDE probability distribution are also derived, the steady states are solved numerically using a moment closure technique, and these results are compared to simulations. The moment closure technique only coarsely approximates simulation results. The effect of model parameters on stability of the disease-free equilibrium is also numerically investigated.
文摘In this paper, to better understand the impact of awareness and the network structure on epidemic transmission, we divide the population into four subpopulations corresponding to different physical states and conscious states, and we first propose a modified disease- awareness model, then verify the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilib- ria, and finally present numerical simulations to demonstrate the theoretical analysis. By examining the spreading influences of model parameters, we find that the outbreak scale can be effectively controlled through increasing the spread rate of awareness or reducing the rate of awareness loss. That is to say, all sorts of media publicity are meaningful. Meanwhile, we find that infection will be affected by consciousness through the control variable.
