This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with th...This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.展开更多
Remarkable achievements have been made in China＇s agricultural development since the late 1970s. Nevertheless, deep-rooted problems are arising from inefficient farming practices. From mid- and long-term perspectives...Remarkable achievements have been made in China＇s agricultural development since the late 1970s. Nevertheless, deep-rooted problems are arising from inefficient farming practices. From mid- and long-term perspectives, migration of China＇s agricultural labor will slow and large-scale operation of farmland will accelerate. Although grain supply and demand have maintained a tight balance, new potentials still exist in improving grain production. Under the pressures of resource and environmental constraints, advancing the green and efficient transition of agriculture will become a new trend in China＇s agricultural development. In this context, the treatment of agricultural pollution, supply-side structural reform and innovation of agricultural subsidy policy are of strategic significance to the transition and upgrade of China＇s agriculture.展开更多
Based on statistics, this paper reviews China＇s economic growth and industrial upgrade since the reform and opening up in 1978 and estimates the contribution of industrial restructuring to economic growth. With the y...Based on statistics, this paper reviews China＇s economic growth and industrial upgrade since the reform and opening up in 1978 and estimates the contribution of industrial restructuring to economic growth. With the years of schooling as the proxy variable of human capital, this paper describes changes in China＇s labor competence during the industrial restructuring process. Then, this paper estimates China＇s future human capital demand and shortage based on economic and demographic forecast. Lastly, this paper proposes recommendations for improving human capital in China with skills development and education.展开更多
Despite significant improvements in transport, energy and information communication technology （ICT） infrastructures, inadequacies still exist in China＇s infrastructure development in light of emerging demand and i...Despite significant improvements in transport, energy and information communication technology （ICT） infrastructures, inadequacies still exist in China＇s infrastructure development in light of emerging demand and industrial transition and upgrade. China lags far behind advanced economies such as the United States, Germany and Japan in terms of the quality of transport infrastructures except railroad,＂ electricity infrastructure is insufficient and service efficiency needs improvement; ICT infrastructure requires all-round upgrade and gaps in Internet bandwidth are striking. This paper suggests that, based on the needs of supply-side structural reform, China must reform its investment and financing systems to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure investment. Efforts must be made to enhance air transport and port infrastructure to support industrial upgrade; to develop the energy Internet to address emerging demands; and to forge a new generation of ICT infrastructure with industrial Internet as the priority to prepare China for the new round of industrial competition.展开更多
Based on the theoretical basis of structural reform of agricultural supply side, the status quo and existing problems of urban agricultural supply side in Tian- jin under the new normal were analyzed. On this basis, t...Based on the theoretical basis of structural reform of agricultural supply side, the status quo and existing problems of urban agricultural supply side in Tian- jin under the new normal were analyzed. On this basis, the paper analyzed the paths of urban agricultural supply-side structural reform separately from the perspec- tives of factors, investment structure and system innovation, and proposed specific policies and opinions on the structural reform of urban agricultural supply side, pro- viding the theoretical basis and realistic basis for the sustainable development of ur- ban agriculture.展开更多
Based on the latest macro financial data, this paper estimates China＇ s overall leverage ratio and sector-specific leverage ratios for households, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions. It ...Based on the latest macro financial data, this paper estimates China＇ s overall leverage ratio and sector-specific leverage ratios for households, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions. It is noted with particular emphasis that the tendency of non-financial enterprises to increase leverage has further intensified instead of abated, which warrants our great attention. Considering that increasing leverage of government sector represents a basic international trend since the eruption of global financial crisis, we simulate the paths of dynamic evolution of China＇s debt-to-GDP ratio on the basis of different scenarios of the difference between real economic growth rate and real interest rate, together with the NPL ratio of banks. Result indicates that in the coming two decades, the leverage ratio of China＇s government sector will continue to rise and will not converge. Hiking leverage ratio, growing debt burden and rising non-performing assets present major financial risks facing China for a certain period of time in the future. Under the premise of supply-side structural reforms and in tandem with the efforts of the real economy to reduce overcapacity, inventory and eliminate zombie firms, we suggest that China focus on disposing of non-performing assets and steadily deleverage through the implementation of integrated strategies to prevent debt problems from triggering systemic financial crisis.展开更多
The 13th Five-year Plan period ushered in a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.During this period,China’s economy transitioned from rapid to high-quality growth and weathered the storms of the trade wa...The 13th Five-year Plan period ushered in a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.During this period,China’s economy transitioned from rapid to high-quality growth and weathered the storms of the trade war with the United States and the COVID-19 outbreak.Chinese policymakers embraced new development concepts,and fought to cut overcapacity and excess inventory,deleverage,lower costs,and bolster weak areas under the theme of supply-side structural reforms.In fighting the three tough battles of major risk prevention,targeted poverty reduction and pollution abatement,China has largely resolved myriad structural contradictions and maintained rapid domestic economic growth and stability.Most targets for the 13th Five-year Plan period have been achieved ahead of time or are near completion on time.Institutional sophistication has bolstered high-quality development.展开更多
The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized.Introducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of a...The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized.Introducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and the modern service industry and promoting a strong domestic market is the key to escaping the middle income trap.We use 1950-2010 data from 45 non-oil-exporting economies representing the structural evolution of the service industry worldwide to compare Asian economies that have passed through the middle income trap with Latin American counterparts that remain stuck in the trap,and thence proceed to construct a matched model that covers the consumption and production service industries and their supply of human capital,with the aim of identifying the formative mechanisms and conditions for escaping the middle income trap through upgrading the structure of the service industry.Substantially developing the production service sector,raising the supply of public services so as to cultivate the quantity and quality of human capital,and matching senior-level human capital with knowledge-intensive serviceindustries will propel the upgrading and transformation of China’s economic structure toward high-quality development.展开更多
The theoretical origins of supply theory and supply-side structural reform lie in British and French classical economics, with their longstanding interest in supply, rather than in the later emergence of Jean-Baptiste...The theoretical origins of supply theory and supply-side structural reform lie in British and French classical economics, with their longstanding interest in supply, rather than in the later emergence of Jean-Baptiste Say and Say＇s Law, which attempts to deny the possibility of economic crises. Marx deepened supply theory, holding that production （supply） structure and product （income） distribution structure depended on the nature and structure of relations of production. This theory has been especially significant in guiding supply-side structural reform in China. The main reference value of American supply-side economics lies in some of its policy proposals for reforming and managing supply. Supply-side structural reform in China requires the development of a socialist supply theory with Chinese characteristics.展开更多
文摘This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.
文摘Remarkable achievements have been made in China＇s agricultural development since the late 1970s. Nevertheless, deep-rooted problems are arising from inefficient farming practices. From mid- and long-term perspectives, migration of China＇s agricultural labor will slow and large-scale operation of farmland will accelerate. Although grain supply and demand have maintained a tight balance, new potentials still exist in improving grain production. Under the pressures of resource and environmental constraints, advancing the green and efficient transition of agriculture will become a new trend in China＇s agricultural development. In this context, the treatment of agricultural pollution, supply-side structural reform and innovation of agricultural subsidy policy are of strategic significance to the transition and upgrade of China＇s agriculture.
文摘Based on statistics, this paper reviews China＇s economic growth and industrial upgrade since the reform and opening up in 1978 and estimates the contribution of industrial restructuring to economic growth. With the years of schooling as the proxy variable of human capital, this paper describes changes in China＇s labor competence during the industrial restructuring process. Then, this paper estimates China＇s future human capital demand and shortage based on economic and demographic forecast. Lastly, this paper proposes recommendations for improving human capital in China with skills development and education.
文摘Despite significant improvements in transport, energy and information communication technology （ICT） infrastructures, inadequacies still exist in China＇s infrastructure development in light of emerging demand and industrial transition and upgrade. China lags far behind advanced economies such as the United States, Germany and Japan in terms of the quality of transport infrastructures except railroad,＂ electricity infrastructure is insufficient and service efficiency needs improvement; ICT infrastructure requires all-round upgrade and gaps in Internet bandwidth are striking. This paper suggests that, based on the needs of supply-side structural reform, China must reform its investment and financing systems to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure investment. Efforts must be made to enhance air transport and port infrastructure to support industrial upgrade; to develop the energy Internet to address emerging demands; and to forge a new generation of ICT infrastructure with industrial Internet as the priority to prepare China for the new round of industrial competition.
文摘Based on the theoretical basis of structural reform of agricultural supply side, the status quo and existing problems of urban agricultural supply side in Tian- jin under the new normal were analyzed. On this basis, the paper analyzed the paths of urban agricultural supply-side structural reform separately from the perspec- tives of factors, investment structure and system innovation, and proposed specific policies and opinions on the structural reform of urban agricultural supply side, pro- viding the theoretical basis and realistic basis for the sustainable development of ur- ban agriculture.
文摘Based on the latest macro financial data, this paper estimates China＇ s overall leverage ratio and sector-specific leverage ratios for households, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions. It is noted with particular emphasis that the tendency of non-financial enterprises to increase leverage has further intensified instead of abated, which warrants our great attention. Considering that increasing leverage of government sector represents a basic international trend since the eruption of global financial crisis, we simulate the paths of dynamic evolution of China＇s debt-to-GDP ratio on the basis of different scenarios of the difference between real economic growth rate and real interest rate, together with the NPL ratio of banks. Result indicates that in the coming two decades, the leverage ratio of China＇s government sector will continue to rise and will not converge. Hiking leverage ratio, growing debt burden and rising non-performing assets present major financial risks facing China for a certain period of time in the future. Under the premise of supply-side structural reforms and in tandem with the efforts of the real economy to reduce overcapacity, inventory and eliminate zombie firms, we suggest that China focus on disposing of non-performing assets and steadily deleverage through the implementation of integrated strategies to prevent debt problems from triggering systemic financial crisis.
文摘The 13th Five-year Plan period ushered in a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.During this period,China’s economy transitioned from rapid to high-quality growth and weathered the storms of the trade war with the United States and the COVID-19 outbreak.Chinese policymakers embraced new development concepts,and fought to cut overcapacity and excess inventory,deleverage,lower costs,and bolster weak areas under the theme of supply-side structural reforms.In fighting the three tough battles of major risk prevention,targeted poverty reduction and pollution abatement,China has largely resolved myriad structural contradictions and maintained rapid domestic economic growth and stability.Most targets for the 13th Five-year Plan period have been achieved ahead of time or are near completion on time.Institutional sophistication has bolstered high-quality development.
基金the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China,“Study on the Implementation of the New Concept of Development and the Modernization of National Governance”(Grant No.:17VZL002)the Youth Project“Quantitative Identification,Early Risk Warning and Countermeasures against the Middle Income Trap under the New Normal”(Grant No.:16CJL015)
文摘The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized.Introducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and the modern service industry and promoting a strong domestic market is the key to escaping the middle income trap.We use 1950-2010 data from 45 non-oil-exporting economies representing the structural evolution of the service industry worldwide to compare Asian economies that have passed through the middle income trap with Latin American counterparts that remain stuck in the trap,and thence proceed to construct a matched model that covers the consumption and production service industries and their supply of human capital,with the aim of identifying the formative mechanisms and conditions for escaping the middle income trap through upgrading the structure of the service industry.Substantially developing the production service sector,raising the supply of public services so as to cultivate the quantity and quality of human capital,and matching senior-level human capital with knowledge-intensive serviceindustries will propel the upgrading and transformation of China’s economic structure toward high-quality development.
基金part of the results of the National Social Science Fund of China Key Project "A Study of the Self-Development Capabilities of the Chinese Economy"(15ZDB133)
文摘The theoretical origins of supply theory and supply-side structural reform lie in British and French classical economics, with their longstanding interest in supply, rather than in the later emergence of Jean-Baptiste Say and Say＇s Law, which attempts to deny the possibility of economic crises. Marx deepened supply theory, holding that production （supply） structure and product （income） distribution structure depended on the nature and structure of relations of production. This theory has been especially significant in guiding supply-side structural reform in China. The main reference value of American supply-side economics lies in some of its policy proposals for reforming and managing supply. Supply-side structural reform in China requires the development of a socialist supply theory with Chinese characteristics.
