基于水供需服务流及外溢价值核算的太湖流域横向生态补偿机制

通过生态补偿协调流域内经济发展与生态保护的关系、缓解上下游利益相关者之间的矛盾是保障流域经济社会可持续发展的关键措施,而流域生态补偿核定的关键在于两点:一是如何模拟并量化水供需服务流动的流向、流量、流速及路径以明确供需双方及其空间关系;二是如何实现栅格尺度-地理单元-行政单元的尺度推演以实现不同行政单元之间生态系统服务的盈余、占用、外溢核算。整合卫星遥感、经济社会统计、水文气象观测等多源异构数据,集成水量平衡、水供需服务流动、生态价值核算等方法,构建了基于水供需流动及其外溢价值核算的流域横向生态补偿标准核定框架,利用D8流向法解决了水供需服务流动的流向、流量、流速及路径模拟与量化,实现了“栅格尺度-地形单元-行政单元”空间尺度推演的外溢价值核算,形成了流域内横向水生态补偿资金收取与分配方案。以太湖流域为例,在全面分析水资源外溢、占用及其价值的基础上,解析了县域尺度的水供需时空关系、流动路径及属性特征,辅以水质指标进而明确界定了责任方与补偿对象,形成了补偿资金收取与分配方案。结果表明,太湖流域水供需双方界线清晰、服务流近似于自然汇流过程,供给方以流域西部、西南部、中部县域为主,特别是西部至中部的县域,应受偿资金较多,平均各县应受偿资金比例超过2%/a,应受偿资金最多的嘉善区,比例超过19.66%/a;需求方聚集于流域中部、东部,特别是黄浦江自然汇流沿岸县域,应收取补偿资金较多,平均各县应收取资金比例超过5%/a,应收取最多的浦东新区,比例超过15.48%/a;净补偿资金基本呈现西高东低的分布特征,流域的大部分城市核心区的县域净补偿资金为负值。研究的核定框架、量化核算方法、资金统筹方案可应用到其他流域的横向生态补偿机制构建,实现流域内部与流域之间生态保护和经济发展的整体协调。

供需网子网内部智能风险预测模型研究

为促进多功能开放型企业供需子网的有效运作,以供需网子网的内部风险为研究对象,开展了基于智能体的智能风险预测研究。首先从信息识别、信息分类及预测决策设计入手,对供需网子网的内部风险预测思想进行了探讨;然后,以智能体为手段,对风险智能预测模型进行了研究。研究了该智能体的结构模型,及智能体计算风险预警值的数学模型,并进一步从实践的角度,研究了该智能体的定义形式和其部分实现代码,进而实现了该智能体模型的系统化研究。

多Agent企业供需网协调管理机制研究

给出了一个多Agent供需网体系结构,并通过供需流过程管理模型及供需流与Agent的交互关系,研究了多Agent企业供需网协调机制,为企业供需关系的实现提供了一个柔性的解决方案.

终端区进场流的路径选择研究

在实际运行中,通常依据管制员的经验对进场航班流的路径进行管理,缺乏科学性。针对终端区进场流的路径选择与进场排序的流量管理问题,以进场航班的总完成时间最短为目标,建立基于时间窗与位置约束的路径选择与排序的数学模型。采用先选择路径再排序的循环寻优的方法进行求解,将禁忌搜索(TS)与排序算法相结合,设计了TS-FCFS与TS-DP两种算法,着重建立了基于关键路径的邻域结构,并加入有效的重置(RESTAR)策略,使算法快速有效的收敛至最优解。最后借助SIMMOD仿真平台验证算法的可行性。以北京首都机场21架航班为例,仿真结果显示,TS-FCFS与TS-DP两种方法较原计划的进场路径总完成时间分别节约了149s与175s。该路径选择算法降低了进场时间,提高了终端区进场效率。通过合理优化进场航班流的路径选择与进场排序,平衡了跑道负荷,减少了航空器间潜在的冲突,同时为管制员调配进场航班流提供了合理有效的路径选择建议。

居民生态福祉导向的国土空间生态网络构建——以南昌市为例

【目的】以土地利用变化和生态系统服务供需流分析为基础,构建居民生态福祉导向的国土空间生态网络格局,并进行分区管控研究,能有效促进区域生态环境保护与居民福祉提升。【方法】以南昌市为例,运用GIS、InVEST模型、电路理论、最小累计阻力模型、重力模型等方法,以土地利用数据为基础,测算研究区2000年、2010年、2020年的生态服务供给量和需求量,并对生态系统服务的供需时空格局和供-需模式进行分析,最后在识别生态安全维育网络和生态服务需求网络的基础上,构建耦合居民福祉提升的国土空间生态网络。【结果】通过解译发现南昌市近20年耕地、草地呈现逐年减少趋势且变化幅度较大,建设用地占比呈现逐年增加趋势,水域与裸地变化幅度小;土地利用结构的变化影响着生态系统功能和稳定性,南昌市各项生态系统服务供给也逐年减少;基于生态服务极重要性和生境质量识别出16块总面积382 km^(2)的南昌市生态源地,5条总长398.2 km的重要生态廊道和9条总长255.8 km的一般生态廊道;通过生态服务供需格局匹配识别出15处生态服务供需错配区和18条总长209.7 km的供需连接廊道。【结论】本研究从系统性观点耦合居民福祉提升和生态网络构建,在保证城镇-生态协同发展基础上,提出了“两带五区五廊多组团”的国土空间生态网络,可为区域生态环境保护与民生福祉改善提供依据。

基于多层动态累积模型的空间信息网络抗毁性分析方法研究

总结了抗毁性研究的主要方法以及3种主要攻击策略,将供需流思想和时间累积图方法融入到空间信息网络模型中,建立多层动态空间网络累积模型;提出动态网络模型下的抗毁性评价指标-时效网络连通性,以此构建空间信息网络抗毁性分析方法模型;以导航卫星网络、通信卫星网络、遥感卫星网络为例构建空间信息网络仿真想定,按照3种攻击策略进行攻击,并对空间信息网络抗毁性进行分析。验证了所提方法的合理性以及指标的有效性。

Water Resources Development and Water Utilization in the Gavkhuni River Basin, Iran

Analysis of water supplies and demand over the past 50 years in the Gavkhuni River Basin（GRB） indicate that despite large investments in water resources development the basin remains just as vulnerable to drought as it always has been. During the period of analysis two transbasin diversions and a storage reservoir have been constructed which have more or less doubled the annual supply to water to the basin. But with each water resource development extractive capacity for irrigation, urban and industrial use has increased by the same amount, so that all new water is allocated as soon as it is available. The most recent developments, since 1980, have actually increased vulnerability to drought because extractive capacity is greater than average flow into the basin. Whenever demand exceeds supply all water is extracted from the basin and the tail end dries up. During the past 50 years flows into the salt pan at the downstream end of the basin have been negligible for more than half the time. Prospects for the future are bleak because once the current phase of water resources development is completed no further water supplies are likely, but demand continues to rise at a steady rate. Ultimately agriculture will have to concede water to urban, industrial and environmental demands.

基于时效网络的空间信息网络结构脆弱性分析方法研究

空间信息网络具有节点异质和拓扑结构动态变化等特点,为此提出了基于时效网络的空间信息网络结构脆弱性分析方法。以卫星通信网络、卫星导航网络和卫星传感网络为例,将空间信息网络抽象为四类网络节点和三类网络连接关系,引入时效网络,构建了多层空间信息时效网络模型。针对传统网络效率计算中部分路径无效等问题,建立三类供需流关系,提出了基于供需流的网络效率指标,并以此构建脆弱性分析模型。构建仿真想定,进行脆弱性分析,实验结果验证了所提方法的有效性。

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Supply and Demand Balance of Water Supply Services in the Dongjiang Lake Basin and Its Beneficiary Areas

Water-related ecosystem services is a hot topic in ecological research. Water supply services are crucial to regional water cycles and water quantity balance. The Dongjiang Lake basin is a national priority river basin in China where ecological compensation pilot programs concerning water resources and water supply services are top priorities for ecosystem service protection. We analyzed spatial and temporal patterns associated with generation and use of water supply services in the Dongjiang Lake basin using the In VEST model, socio-economic data and water resource data. We found that between 1995 and 2010, water yield in the Dongjiang Lake basin and its beneficiary areas increased before declining, varying 9350–12 400 m3 ha-1 y-1; average water yield peaked in 2000. The spatial distribution patterns of water yield during these years are similar, progressively decreasing from upstream to downstream with a remarkable reduction in surrounding areas of city clusters. Average water consumption of the basin and its beneficiary areas ranged from 2900–4450 m3 ha-1 y-1 between 1995 and 2010; the spatial distribution patterns of water consumption during these years are similar, dropping gradually from urban construction land to its surroundings with a stronger gradient between urban and rural areas. More water was consumed on both banks and surroundings of the lake. From 1995 to 2010, water supply fell short of demand for urban construction land and its proximity as well as areas along the lake. Water supply services were able to satisfy needs in other regions. The Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city cluster suffers from the most strained water supply.

A Review on the Supply-Demand Relationship and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services

Research on spatial flow as it relates to the relationship between the supply and demand of ecosystem services supports a significant connection between the supply of ecosystem services and human well-being.Understanding the entire process of the production and flow,as well as the use of ecosystem services,accurately assessing the balance of supply and demand of ecosystem services,and establishing a two-way feedback relationship between supply and demand are vital for the scientific management of the ecosystem and ensuring the sustainable development of regional resources.Based on a large number of relevant publications,this paper comprehensively summarizes the concepts and assessment methods of ecosystem service supply and demand from the perspective of ecosystem service supply and demand,and discusses the impacts of land use and climate change on the temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem services under the background of global change.Then,an analysis of the research progress in the ecosystem services spatial flow indicated that there are still deficiencies in the quantification of cultural services,the dynamics of ecosystem service flow and the driving mechanism of ecosystem services.We also propose that clarifying the driving mechanism and transfer process of ecosystem services,and realizing the mutual conversion between different spatial-temporal scales of ecosystem services,is an important approach for improving the application of ecosystem services research in practice in the future.

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Flow of Water Provision Service Balance in Jinghe River Basin

Quantifying the whole process of ecosystem services from generation through transfer to use,and analyzing the balance between the supply and demand of regional ecosystem services are of great significance for formulating regional sustainable development strategies,realizing regional ecosystem management,and effective resource allocation.Based on the SWAT model,InVEST model,ArcGIS,and other software,this study analyzed the supply-demand balance of water provision services in Jinghe River Basin,a typical region located in the Loess Plateau,using multi-source data.This research then analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution pattern and spatial matching characteristics of the supply and demand of water provision services in Jinghe River Basin from 2000 to 2015.On this basis,a spatial flow model of water provision service was constructed,the flow rules(flow paths)of the water provision service were explored at the subwatershed scale,and the spatial scope of the supply area and benefit area were depicted.The results show that:(1)Water resource supply and demand in the Jinghe River basin both showed increasing trends from 2000 to 2015.(2)The supply-demand balance of water resources was generally up to the standard,however,there were significant differences between urban and rural areas.The supply-demand balances of the central urban areas of each county were relatively low,and even exceeded the supply in the lower reaches of the Jingyang River,such as Gaoling County,Qindu District,and Jingyang County.In rural areas,due to the small population and industrial distribution,coupled with a better ecological environmental base,the supply-demand balance was relatively high,such as Pengyang County,Lingtai County,Huachi County,Huanxian County,Ningxian County,and Zhenyuan County.(3)From 2000 to 2015,the spatial matching pattern of supply and demand in the Jinghe River Basin showed a trend of decline with fluctuations.In 2015,the supply-demand ratios of more than 60%of the subwatersheds showed trends of decline,and the proportion of under-supply area increased by 55.7%in 2015 compared with that in 2000.(4)The supply areas of water provision service in Jinghe River Basin are distributed in the upper reaches of the basin,and the benefit areas are Huating County,Chongxin County,Yongshou County,Chunhua County,Ganxian County,Liquan County,Qindu District,and others in the middle and lower reaches.