高价格下进口液化天然气面临的长期购销协议短供风险及对策

近年来,LNG现货资源进口成本较高,市场推涨情绪较为严重,LNG现货采购价格相比布伦特原油价格已出现明显溢价,可能存在卖方宣告合同短供,同时将资源用于国际现货市场出售的套利行为。本文结合巴基斯坦液化天然气有限公司长期购销协议被违约短供事件,对离岸交付形式、到岸交付形式、LNG资源组合商到岸交付形式的长期购销协议范本中卖方滞期及短供赔偿条款部分进行梳理,分析LNG现货价格大涨背景下LNG长期购销协议条款中的短供风险以及相应的规避措施。中国购买方在LNG长期购销协议谈判过程中应使用统一规范的合同文本,建立健全船货风险管控机制,加强对合同条款的理解与运用。

供体风险指数对慢加急性肝衰竭肝移植治疗早期预后的影响:单中心159例经验

目的探讨供体的供体风险指数(DRI)对慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)行肝移植治疗早期预后的影响。方法回顾性分析接受肝移植治疗的159例ACLF受体临床资料,根据供体DRI计算公式将受体分为DRI<1.65组(96例)和DRI≥1.65组(63例);根据慢性肝衰竭联盟-慢加急性肝衰竭评分(CLIF-C ACLFs),将受体分为CLIF-C ACLFs<48组(78例)和CLIF-C ACLFs≥48组(81例)。分别观察各组受体肝移植术后早期预后指标[重症监护室(ICU)住院时间、术后住院时间]。应用Kaplan-Meier生存曲线分析受体肝移植术后90 d生存率,应用Cox比例风险回归模型分析影响ACLF受体肝移植术后早期预后的危险因素。结果 DRI<1.65组与DRI≥1.65组的ICU住院时间、术后住院时间比较,差异均无统计学意义(均为P>0.05)。CLIF-C ACLFs <48组和CLIF-C ACLFs≥48组术后住院时间比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。CLIF-C ACLFs<48组的ICU住院时间为4(3～14)d,明显短于CLIF-C ACLFs≥48组的7(1～33) d(P<0.05)。CLIF-C ACLFs评分是影响ACLF受体肝移植术后早期预后的危险因素(P<0.05)。DRI<1.65组与DRI≥1.65组的术后90 d生存率比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),CLIF-C ACLFs<48组受体术后90 d生存率为94%,明显高于CLIF-C ACLFs≥48组的79%(P<0.05)。结论 ACLF受体肝移植术后早期预后与其自身病情严重程度相关,而与选用供体的DRI无明显相关性,应早期及时行肝移植治疗。

营配调末端融合的供电综合风险预警模型

当前供电营配末端相互独立、关联度偏低,导致其综合风险预警效果较差,为此构建一种新的供电综合风险预警模型。选取供电风险预警指标,并对其进行标准化处理。计算指标间的灰度关联度,并对其进行排序,获取供电风险事件的标量时间序列,求得风险预警的最大梯度差,根据关联指向性特征得到风险预警评估的判决式,以此构建供电风险预警模型。实验结果表明,利用该模型进行供电综合风险预警,预警结果更接近实际结果。

Impact analysis of supplier relationship on supply chain resilience using biological cellular resilience theory

A supply chain resilience model is established based on the biological cellular resilience theory to analyze the impact of the supplier relationship on supply chain resilience. A scenario where the market demand is changed suddenly by some undesired events is considered. The results reveal that enhancing collaboration with a more resilient supplier can significantly improve supply chain resilience and reduce supply chain losses. It is also found that enhancing the supplier relationship can significantly benefit supply chain resilience if the collaborative intensity is relatively low, and it has less effect if supply chain members have already collaborated closely. Thus, enhancing the supplier relationship to a limited intensity is a relatively effective and economic method to strengthen supply chain resilience.

Supply chain coordination with participators' risk bias under buy-back contract

Considering participators' risk bias,which is measured by the method of value at risk,the risk constraints in a two-echelon supply chain coordination under buy-back contract is equal to giving the order of an upper bound.With a risk-averse dominant enterprise(M)and a risk-neutral non-dominant one(R),the coordination which optimizes the supply chain under the risk constraints is achieved by a penalty mechanism L to reduce R's order.With risk-neutral M and risk-averse R,M can motivate R to increase his order by providing a risk subsidy K,and two cases are discussed.If the risk constraints of R cannot satisfy M's participation constraint to offer K,M will prefer to accept R's order to obtain a sub-optimization solution of the supply chain.Or else,with M's K,R's optimal order just coordinates the supply chain,which is equal to the case without risk bias,and in this situation R's risk bias only affects the profit distribution between the participators.

塞奇威克帮俄罗斯开拓保险业务

世界第二大经纪人公司塞奇威克集团的一个机构——塞奇威克航空有限公司将帮助俄罗斯空间代理公司建立承保业务和提供风险管理服务。 根据一个为期三年的合同,塞奇威克航空有限公司设在伦敦的空间服务部门将帮助已建立4年的俄罗斯空间代理公司推出西方再保险和提供咨询服务。

美国银行贷款的18条原则

一、贷款的质量比获取新机会更为重要。 凡是经营都有风险,但银行的经营并不是提供风险资本。假定银行要发放一笔贷款,那么该银行在风险程度的分析中应详细考虑如下因素:债务人的管理经验、能力、措施、赢利、现金收支以及净值等。信贷人员必须亲自确认,债务人要借多少钱,全部贷款的偿还期以及取得贷款的真实、目的。 二、对每一笔贷款,从一开始就应当考虑到两条没有联系但都存在着的出路。

Deleveraging:Data, Risks and Countermeasures

Based on the latest macro financial data, this paper estimates China＇ s overall leverage ratio and sector-specific leverage ratios for households, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions. It is noted with particular emphasis that the tendency of non-financial enterprises to increase leverage has further intensified instead of abated, which warrants our great attention. Considering that increasing leverage of government sector represents a basic international trend since the eruption of global financial crisis, we simulate the paths of dynamic evolution of China＇s debt-to-GDP ratio on the basis of different scenarios of the difference between real economic growth rate and real interest rate, together with the NPL ratio of banks. Result indicates that in the coming two decades, the leverage ratio of China＇s government sector will continue to rise and will not converge. Hiking leverage ratio, growing debt burden and rising non-performing assets present major financial risks facing China for a certain period of time in the future. Under the premise of supply-side structural reforms and in tandem with the efforts of the real economy to reduce overcapacity, inventory and eliminate zombie firms, we suggest that China focus on disposing of non-performing assets and steadily deleverage through the implementation of integrated strategies to prevent debt problems from triggering systemic financial crisis.

Agriculture and Water Sources Protection Zones in the Czech Republic

The area of interest is located in the South Moravia Region at the confluence of the Jihlava, Oslava and Rokytn^i rivers. Ivan^ice spring area comprises a series of hydrologic boreholes, it is the main water source for water supply of Ivan^ice and Rosice towns and provides water for 30,000 inhabitants. The risk analysis was created on the basis of water quality monitoring, hydrogeological assessment and terrain exploration and a revision of protection zones was proposed. The spring area is situated in nitrate vulnerable zones and recently nitrate concentrations have been decreasing. Water quality evaluation results： high concentration of manganese and iron, sometimes higher concentration of ammonium and COD. This area is intensively used for agriculture and it is necessary to make a compromise solution during protection zones proposal, The regime in protection zones can not affect manganese and iron concentration （their origin is in the natural geological environment）. Therefore, water treatment plant is in operation and its modernization is proposed. Furthermore, the paper deals with spring area intensification construction of a new hydrologic borehole, and managed and unmanaged infiltration of surface water. The proposal of protection zones revision consists of reduction to a 2nd level protection zone.

Call Warrants Impact on Underlying Stocks： The Taiwan Experience

On the basis of the price, volume and volatility of underlying stocks, this article empirically investigates the impact of 273 Taiwan call warrants on underlying stocks. Discussions by the market risk, depth, tightness and liquidity, changes on underlying stocks due to warrants issuance, are investigated. In this study, the CAPM is applied for evaluating the market risk, the Kyle model for the market depth, the averaged best five bid-ask spread for the market tightness and the averaged turnover rate for the market liquidity. The empirical results indicate that the most significant influence is the market liquidity, the market tightness next; the market risk and market depth are non-significant.

商业银行信贷风险防范技术研究

本文运用现代多元统计理论的主成分分析、聚类、判别、多元回归、随机抽样和统计检验方法,对商业银行信贷资产风险的识别、评价和模拟技术进行了较深入的研究,探求高水平信贷资产风险识别计量技术,建立科学可行且适应市场要求的信贷资产管理系统。

An application of insurance mechanism in risk management for energy internet

As a completely new residential distribution infrastructure,energy internet facilitates transactions of equipment,energy and services. However,there is security risk under all the facilities.This paper proposes an electricity pricing model based on insurance from the perspective of maximizing the benefits of Energy Internet service providers by using the principal-agent theory. The consumer prepays the provider insurance premiums and signs a contract. The provider sets electricity price according to the premiums and therefore provides differentiated electric services for the consumer. Loss suffered by the consumer due to the power failure is compensated by the provider according to the contract. The equivalent model is presented and a necessary condition of the optimal strategy is obtained on the basis of Pontryagin's maximum principle. At last,a numerical example is presented,which illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed model.

A Study on Preconditions Setting of Long-Term Contract between Manufacturer and Component Supplier

To provide a risk-sharing mechanism that encourages a component supplier and a manufacturer to expand their production capacity of components and products, many researches on SCM suggested that it is better for the SC players to connect a long-term contract with flexible preconditions before doing the decision-making of production capacity. With considering of the uncertainty of demand and integrity problems between SC players, it is difficult to set reasonable preconditions. As a result, under-investment problems still occur frequently. In this paper, after we had discussed the decision-making of production capacity with the preconditions by analyzing the character of the players, we verified the under-investment problem of the supply chain. In order to clarify the optimum preconditions to alleviate the under-investment problem, we also analyzed the relations between preconditions and supply capacity of the whole supply chain. In the last part of this paper, we proposed a method of preconditions setting in such uncertain situations.

Questionnaire Survey of Services and Outsourcing in Finnish Distribution Companies

The aim of this study was to find out what types of services Finnish distribution companies were purchasing and what is the future trend related to them. Results were gathered from Finnish distribution companies using questionnaire. Theoretical background was collected from literacy to get more information of benefits and risks. Results indicate that purchasing services especially from independent service providers is increasing. Also the benefits are greater than the risks related to service purchasing.

Retailers’ Order Strategies in Transshipments in Disruption Risks of Supply Chains

This article investigates the order problem in a two-stage supply chain consisting of retail- ers, primary suppliers and backup suppliers. From retailers＇ perspectives, the optimal offering strategies in unidirectional transshipments are analyzed on the basis of disruption risks in supply chains. With a focus on retailers＇ profits, it develops the decision model of retailers＇ orders in the dual sourcing mode and in the mode of capacity options, to maximize the retailers＇ expected profits. The simulation shows that retailers＇ optimal order decisions are not correlated with the joint disruption probability in the two order modes without service constraints; retailers＇ optimal decisions are influenced by the joint disruption probability in the two order modes with service constraints, and the impact of the joint disruption probability of the primary suppliers＇ optimal order from retailers differs in the two modes. Retailers＇ order decisions in respect of backup suppliers are more sensitive to the changing volumes of transshipments. The contribution of this article is the impact of main parameters on retailers＇ decisions, providing some guidance for enterprises to make order decisions.

From Top-Down to “Community-Centric” Approaches to Early Warning Systems: Exploring Pathways to Improve Disaster Risk Reduction Through Community Participation

Natural hazards and their related impacts can have powerful implications for humanity, particularly communities with deep reliance on natural resources. The development of effective early warning systems(EWS) can contribute to reducing natural hazard impacts on communities by improving risk reduction strategies and activities.However, current shortcomings in the conception and applications of EWS undermine risk reduction at the grassroots level. This article explores various pathways to involve local communities in EWS from top-down to more participatory approaches. Based on a literature review and three case studies that outline various levels of participation in EWS in Kenya, Hawai'i, and Sri Lanka, the article suggests a need to review the way EWS are designed and applied, promoting a shift from the traditional expert-driven approach to one that is embedded at the grassroots level and driven by the vulnerable communities. Such a community-centric approach also raises multiple challenges linked to a necessary shift of conception of EWS and highlights the need for more research on pathways for sustainable community engagement.

Rent-seeking Game Analysis About Suppliers and Agencies in Government Procurement

In government procurement, government and suppliers are connected for their interests, government and agencies are connected for commissions. This paper focuses on these two kinds of relationship and use rent-seeking game model to analyze the behavior of the government.