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风电功率短期预测及非参数区间估计 被引量:85
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作者 周松林 茆美琴 苏建徽 《中国电机工程学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2011年第25期10-16,共7页
为满足电网规划的要求,风电功率预测系统不仅需要提供确切的预测值,还应该对预测值包含的风险做出合理的评估。利用人工神经网络预测风速、风向,并根据实测功率曲线获得风电功率预测值。分析了造成风电功率预测结果不确定的影响因素,提... 为满足电网规划的要求,风电功率预测系统不仅需要提供确切的预测值,还应该对预测值包含的风险做出合理的评估。利用人工神经网络预测风速、风向,并根据实测功率曲线获得风电功率预测值。分析了造成风电功率预测结果不确定的影响因素,提出一种基于预测误差分布特性统计分析的非参数置信区间估计方法,对各功率分区内的预测误差概率密度函数进行建模,并在确定性预测基础上求取概率性风电功率预测值。仿真结果验证了该方法的实用性与有效性。 展开更多
关键词 风电功率预测 实测功率曲线 预测误差分布 信区间 非参数估计
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Emergency algorithm for enhanced survivability of key service
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作者 赵国生 王慧强 王健 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2007年第3期443-446,共4页
To work out a solution for answering the question when it is suitable for emergency response strategies to be executed, an emergency algorithm for enhanced survivability of a key service is presented. First, based on ... To work out a solution for answering the question when it is suitable for emergency response strategies to be executed, an emergency algorithm for enhanced survivability of a key service is presented. First, based on the central limit theorem and the hypothesis testing theory, the confidence interval of each key service's history average service response time in the host server and the spare server can be figured out, respectively. This can also be updated dynamically by a proposed method using the method of time slide window. Then, according to the five kinds of distributed situations of the current service response time' s confidence interval in the host server and the spare server, the proposed algorithm can dynamically choose the appropriate emergency policies such as resource reconfiguration, service degradation or service drifting, etc. in fight time. Thus, the key service request can be finished within its expected deadline by users as far as possible. Furthermore, the whole process of dynamic configuration is transparent to users. Finally, simulation tests are performed to prove the feasibility. 展开更多
关键词 emergency response SURVIVABILITY key service confidence interval
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Time-varying confidence interval forecasting of travel time for urban arterials using ARIMA-GARCH model 被引量:6
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作者 崔青华 夏井新 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2014年第3期358-362,共5页
To improve the forecasting reliability of travel time, the time-varying confidence interval of travel time on arterials is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average and generalized autoregressive co... To improve the forecasting reliability of travel time, the time-varying confidence interval of travel time on arterials is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARIMA-GARCH) model. In which, the ARIMA model is used as the mean equation of the GARCH model to model the travel time levels and the GARCH model is used to model the conditional variances of travel time. The proposed method is validated and evaluated using actual traffic flow data collected from the traffic monitoring system of Kunshan city. The evaluation results show that, compared with the conventional ARIMA model, the proposed model cannot significantly improve the forecasting performance of travel time levels but has advantage in travel time volatility forecasting. The proposed model can well capture the travel time heteroskedasticity and forecast the time-varying confidence intervals of travel time which can better reflect the volatility of observed travel times than the fixed confidence interval provided by the ARIMA model. 展开更多
关键词 confidence interval forecasting travel time autoregressive integrated moving average and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity ARIMA-GARCH) conditional variance reliability
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Mitigation of inter-cell interference in visible light communication 被引量:1
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作者 Agha Yasir Ali 张在琛 +1 位作者 Abdeldime M.S.Abdelgader 宗白庆 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2015年第4期437-442,共6页
This paper proposes the orthogonal and nonorthogonal schemes in the interference environments for visible light communication( VLC) systems. The proposed schemes pay attention to the case when different bit streams ... This paper proposes the orthogonal and nonorthogonal schemes in the interference environments for visible light communication( VLC) systems. The proposed schemes pay attention to the case when different bit streams from multiple cells are simultaneously transmitted, which consequently causes inter-cell interference( ICI) and greatly deteriorates the bit error rate( BER) and channel capacity performance of the system. The performance of the newdeveloped multi-cell system in indoor VLC systems is evaluated. The bipolar phase shift keying( BPSK) modulation scheme with orthogonal pulses( OPs) for multiple cells environments is employed to mitigate the ICI problem and improve the BER and channel capacity performances. Since the use of different OPs in each cell requires more number of OPs, which requires high bandwidth, OPs are reused at certain distances. Three different schemes, which are OPs,orthogonal and non-orthogonal pulses( NOP) reuse, are compared. This paper investigates the impact of using these schemes and compared their performances in the ICI environments. The BER and channel capacity using the proposed schemes are comprehensively examined. Simulation and theoretical results showthat the OPs schemes are more effective in the interference areas of the room and significantly outperform NOP. 展开更多
关键词 visible light communication inter-cell interference orthogonal pulses
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Transradial Versus Transfemoral Approach for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Elderly Patients in China: A Retrospective Analysis
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作者 金辰 徐奕 +7 位作者 乔树宾 唐欣然 吴永健 颜红兵 窦克非 徐波 杨进刚 杨跃进 《Chinese Medical Sciences Journal》 CAS CSCD 2017年第3期161-170,共10页
Objective To compare hospital costs and clinical outcomes between transradial intervention (TRI) and transfemoral intervention (TFI) in elderly patients aged over 65 years. Methods We identified 1229 patients ag... Objective To compare hospital costs and clinical outcomes between transradial intervention (TRI) and transfemoral intervention (TFI) in elderly patients aged over 65 years. Methods We identified 1229 patients aged over 65 years who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in Fuwai Hospital, Beijing, China, between January 1 and December 31, 2010. Total hospital costs and in-hospital outcomes were compared between TRI and TFI. An inverse probability weighting (IPW) model was introduced to control potential biases. Results Patients who underwent TRI were younger, less often female, more likely to receive PCI for single-vessel lesions, and less likely to undergo the procedure for ostial lesions. TRI was associated with a cost saving of CNY7495 (95%CI: CNY4419-10 420). Such differences were mainly driven by lower PCI-related costs. TRI patients had shorter length of stay (1.9 days, 95%CI: 1.1-2.7 days), shorter post-procedural stay (0.7 days, 95%CI: 0.3-1.1 days), and fewer major adverse cardiac events (adjusted odds ratio = 0.47, 95%CI: 0.31-0.73). There was no statistical significance in the incidence of post-PCI bleeding between TRI and TFI (P〉0.05). Such differences remained consistent in clinically relevant subgroups of acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, and stable angina. Conclusion The use of TRI in patients aged over 65 years was associated with significantly reduced hospital costs and more favorable clinical outcomes. 展开更多
关键词 coronary artery disease cost-benefit analysis percutaneous coronary intervention aged transradial intervention transfemoral intervention
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Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resectable esophageal carcinoma:A meta-analysis 被引量:21
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作者 Hai-Lin Jin Hong Zhu Ting-Sheng Ling Hong-Jie Zhang Rui-Hua Shi 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第47期5983-5991,共9页
AIM:To compare neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery with surgery alone for resectable esophageal carcinoma. METHODS:We used MEDLINE and EMBASE databases to identify eligible studies and manual searches were done ... AIM:To compare neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery with surgery alone for resectable esophageal carcinoma. METHODS:We used MEDLINE and EMBASE databases to identify eligible studies and manual searches were done to ensure no studies were missed.Trial validity assessment was performed and a trial quality score was assigned. RESULTS:Eleven randomized controlled trials(RCTs) including 1308 patients were selected.Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy significantly improved the overall survival compared with surgery alone.Odds ratio(OR) [95%confidence interval(CI),P value],expressed as neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery vs surgery alone,was 1.28(1.01-1.64,P=0.05)for 1-year survival,1.78(1.20-2.66,P=0.004)for 3-year survival,and 1.46(1.07-1.99,P=0.02)for 5-year survival.Postoperative mortality increased in patients treated by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy(OR: 1.68,95%CI:1.03-2.73,P=0.04),but incidence of postoperative complications was similar in two groups (OR:1.14,95%CI:0.88-1.49,P=0.32).Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy lowered the local-regional cancer recurrence(OR:0.64,95%CI:0.41-0.99,P=0.04), but incidence of distant cancer recurrence was similar (OR:0.94,95%CI:0.68-1.31,P=0.73).Histological subgroup analysis indicated that esophageal squamous cell carcinoma did not benefit from neoadjuvantchemoradiotherapy,OR(95%CI,P value)was 1.16(0.85-1.57,P=0.34)for 1-year survival,1.34 (0.98-1.82,P=0.07)for 3-year survival and 1.41 (0.98-2.02,P=0.06)for 5-year survival. CONCLUSION:Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy can raise the survival rate of patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma. 展开更多
关键词 Esophageal carcinoma Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy Randomized controlled trial Metaanalysis
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Prevalence of and risk factors for postprandial hypotension in older Chinese men 被引量:21
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作者 Xiao ZOU Jian CAO +4 位作者 Jian-Hua LI Yi-Xin HU Yu-Song GUO Quan-Jin SI Li FAN 《Journal of Geriatric Cardiology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第6期600-604,共5页
Objective To assess the prevalence of and risk factors for postprandial hypotension (PPH) among old and very old Chinese men. Methods The study included 349 Chinese men aged 65 and older, grouped into two age catego... Objective To assess the prevalence of and risk factors for postprandial hypotension (PPH) among old and very old Chinese men. Methods The study included 349 Chinese men aged 65 and older, grouped into two age categories: group 1 (old) included 163 men aged 65 to 80 years; group 2 (very old) included 186 men aged over 80 years. Blood pressure changes after meals were assessed every 15 min by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Symptoms after meal ingestion and after standing up and changes in the baseline condition relative to blood pressure changes were observed continuously. Additional baseline data included body mass index, medical history, and medication use Results The prevalence of PPH was 59.3% overall and was significantly higher in group 2 than group 1 (63.4% vs. 54.6%, P 〈 0.05). In group 2, the prevalence of PPH after breakfast (33.8%) and lunch (32.1%) were higher than that after supper (20.9%), P 〈 0.05. Hypertension and age were significant risk factors for PPH (OR = 2.188, 95% CI: 1.134-4.223, P = 0.02; OR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.112-3.11, P = 0.018, respectively). In contrast, acarbose use was protective against PPH (OR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.189-0.847, P = 0.017). The decrease in blood pres- sure during PPH was 20-40 mmHg and the maximum was 90 mmHg. PPH usually occurred at 30-60 min after a meal and lasted 30-120 rnin. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that the prevalence of PPH in men aged over 80 years is significantly higher than those in men aged 65 to 80 years, and the blood pressure decline is also higher for men aged over 80 years. In addition, hypertension and age were main risk factors for PPH in the older men, which suggest that preventing and treating PPH is worthwhile. 展开更多
关键词 MALE Postprandial hypotension PREVALENCE The elderly
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XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and esophageal cancer risk: A meta-analysis involving 2288 cases and 4096 controls 被引量:5
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作者 Ling Yuan Dan Cui +3 位作者 Er-Jiang Zhao Chen-Zhi Jia Li-Dong Wang Wei-Quan Lu 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第18期2343-2348,共6页
AIM: To evaluate the association between xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD), genetic polymorphism Lys751Gln and esophageal cancer risk. METHODS: We searched PubMed up to September 1, 2010 to identify eligible studies... AIM: To evaluate the association between xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD), genetic polymorphism Lys751Gln and esophageal cancer risk. METHODS: We searched PubMed up to September 1, 2010 to identify eligible studies. A total of 10 casecontrol studies including 2288 cases and 4096 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Statistical analysis was performed with Review Manage version 4.2. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the strength of the association.RESULTS: The results suggested that there is no significant association between XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and esophageal cancer susceptibility in the overall population. However, in subgroup analysis by histology type, a significant association was found between XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and esophageal adenocarcinoma (for CC vs AA: OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.01-1.55, P = 0.05 for heterogeneity). CONCLUSION: Our meta-analysis suggested that XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism may be associated with increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. 展开更多
关键词 Xeroderma pigmentosum group D POLYMORPHISM Esophageal cancer Mwta-analysis
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CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism contributes to colorectal cancer risk:A meta-analysis 被引量:4
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作者 Jian-Qiang Jin Yuan-Yuan Hu +4 位作者 Yu-Ming Niu Gong-Li Yang Yu-Yu Wu Wei-Dong Leng Ling-Yun Xia 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第2期260-266,共7页
AIM:To study the relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk by meta-analysis. METHODS:A meta-analysis was performed to investigate the relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and ... AIM:To study the relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk by meta-analysis. METHODS:A meta-analysis was performed to investigate the relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk by reviewing the related studies until September 2010.Data were extracted and analyzed.Crude odds ratio(OR) with 95% confidence interval(CI) was used to assess the strength of relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk. RESULTS:Thirteen published case-control studies including 5336 cases and 6226 controls were acquired. The pooled OR with 95%CI indicated that CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism was significantly related with colorectal cancer risk(Val/Val vs Ile/Ile:OR=1.47,95%CI:1.16-1.86,P=0.002;dominant model:OR= 1.33,95%CI:1.01-1.75,P=0.04;recessive model:OR=1.49,95%CI:1.18-1.88,P=0.0009) .Subgroup ethnicity analysis showed that CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism was also significantly related with colorectal cancer risk in Europeans(Ile/Val vs Ile/Ile:OR=1.22,95%CI:1.05-1.42,P=0.008;dominant model:OR= 1.24,95%CI:1.07-1.43,P=0.004) and Asians(Val/ Val vs Ile/Ile:OR=1.40,95%CI:1.07-1.82,P=0.01;recessive model:OR=1.46,95%CI:1.12-1.89,P= 0.005) . CONCLUSION:CYP1A1 Ile462Val may be an increased risk factor for colorectal cancer. 展开更多
关键词 CYP1A1 POLYMORPHISM Colorectal cancer META-ANALYSIS
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TP53 Arg72Pro polymorphism is associated with esophageal cancer risk:A meta-analysis 被引量:4
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作者 De-Ke Jiang Lei Yao Wen-Zhang Wang Bo Peng Wei-Hua Ren Xian-Mei Yang Long Yu 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第9期1227-1233,共7页
AIM:To investigate the association between TP53 Arg72Pro polymorphism and esophageal cancer(EC)risk using meta-analysis. METHODS:All eligible studies published before March 1,2010 were selected by searching PubMed usi... AIM:To investigate the association between TP53 Arg72Pro polymorphism and esophageal cancer(EC)risk using meta-analysis. METHODS:All eligible studies published before March 1,2010 were selected by searching PubMed using keywords"p53"or"TP53","polymorphism"or"variation", "esophageal"and"cancer"or"carcinoma".Crude odds ratios(ORs)with 95%confidence intervals(CIs)were assessed for EC risk associated with TP53 Arg72Pro polymorphism using fixed-and random-effects models. RESULTS:Nine case-control studies involving 5545 subjects were included in this meta-analysis.Significantly reduced risk of EC was associated with TP53genotypes for Arg/Arg+Arg/Pro vs Pro/Pro(OR= 0.73,95%CI:0.57-0.94,P=0.014).Subgroup analyses according to the source of controls and the specimens used for determining TP53 Arg72Pro genotypes or sample size showed that significantly reduced risk was observed only in studies which have populationbased controls(Arg/Arg vs Pro/Pro:OR=0.56,95% CI:0.47-0.66,P<0.001),and use white blood cells or normal tissue to assess TP53 genotypes of cases (Arg/Arg vs Pro/Pro:OR=0.56,95%CI:0.47-0.65,P <0.001)or include at least 200 subjects(Arg/Arg vs Pro/Pro:OR=0.56,95%CI:0.47-0.65,P<0.001). Analysis restricted to well-designed studies also supported the significantly decreased risk of EC(Arg/Arg vs Pro/Pro:OR=0.54,95%CI:0.46-0.64,P<0.001). CONCLUSION:TP53 Arg72 carriers are significantly associated with decreased EC risk.Nevertheless,more welldesigned studies are needed to confirm our findings. 展开更多
关键词 TP53 Codon 72 POLYMORPHISM Esophageal cancer META-ANALYSIS
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基于MTS-Choquet群决策法的隧道施工方法优化研究 被引量:1
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作者 吴育谦 宋明 +1 位作者 刘尚各 谢全敏 《水利水电技术(中英文)》 北大核心 2021年第6期58-66,共9页
目前隧道施工方法选择主要以经验为主,以相应数值模拟结果分析为辅,其优化决策理论研究方面比较滞后。为此,基于马田系统(MTS)、Choquet模糊积分、群决策和信噪比等基本理论,建立了隧道施工方法优选决策模型。该模型以施工环境等6个指... 目前隧道施工方法选择主要以经验为主,以相应数值模拟结果分析为辅,其优化决策理论研究方面比较滞后。为此,基于马田系统(MTS)、Choquet模糊积分、群决策和信噪比等基本理论,建立了隧道施工方法优选决策模型。该模型以施工环境等6个指标构成评价指标体系,依托区间数构建各专家h决策矩阵及异常工法区间矩阵,并聚合群决策矩阵和相关规范化,然后基于标准差、方差、马氏距离理论求解各子属性集Y_(q)下异常工法区间矩阵间的马氏距离矩阵,进而由望大特性信噪比求得各属性模糊测度值,最后分别按工法各属性、各工法计算Choquet模糊积分综合评价值并排序,确定最优隧道施工方法。将该模型应用于怀阳高速公路马咀隧道Ⅳ级围岩,对CD(I_(1))、CRD(I_(2))、双侧壁导坑开挖(I_(3))三种工法进行了评判,得到了其优劣排序为I_(3)>I_(2)>I_(1),即该隧道Ⅳ级围岩最优施工方法为双侧壁导坑法,这与目前经验认知结果一致。 展开更多
关键词 隧道工程 施工方法优选群决策 马田系统 区间Choquet模糊积分 望大特性区间噪比 马氏距离
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Sorafenib in Liver Function Impaired Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma 被引量:4
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作者 You-xin Ji Zhong-fa Zhang +8 位作者 Ke-tao Lan Ke-ke Nie Chuan-xin Geng Shi-chao Liu Ling Zhang Xing-jun Zhuang Xiao Zou Lei Sun Zong-chun Zhang 《Chinese Medical Sciences Journal》 CAS CSCD 2014年第1期7-14,共8页
Objective To explore the efficacy and safty of sorafenib in Child-Pugh class B to class C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods In this three-center open-label study from November 2011 to May 2013, we randomly as... Objective To explore the efficacy and safty of sorafenib in Child-Pugh class B to class C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods In this three-center open-label study from November 2011 to May 2013, we randomly assigned 189 patients with advanced Child-Pugh class B or C HCC patients into two groups, one group with 95 patient to receive sorafenib (400 mga time, twice a day) and the other group with 94 patients to receive best supportive care. The primary end points were progression-free survival and overall survival. Results The median progression-free survival was 2.2 months and 1.9 months in the sorafenib group and best supportive care group respectively (Hazard ratio in the sorafenib group, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.75; P=O.O02). The median overall survival was 4.0 months and 3.5 months in the sorafenib group and best supportive care group respectively (Hazard ratio in the sorafenib group, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-0.68; P〈0.001). The main adverse effect of sorafenib was rash and ache of the skin (in 51.7% patients). The incidences of severe rash, diarrhea, and dry skin were 5.6%, 5.6%, and 2.2% in the sorafenib group. One patient reached partial response in the sorafenib group. Conclusions Sorafenib is safe in patients with liver function impaired advanced HCC. It is effective in terms of progression-free survival and overall survival compared with best supportive care. Liver functions are the important predictive factors. 展开更多
关键词 SORAFENIB hepatocullelar carcinoma best supportive care SURVIVAL
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Attitudes towards acceptance of an innovative home-based and remote sensing rehabilitation protocol among cardiovascular patients in Shantou, China 被引量:3
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作者 Jia-Ying FANG Ji-Linm LI +5 位作者 Zhong-Han LI Duan-Min XU Chang CHEN Bin XIE Helen CHEN William W AU 《Journal of Geriatric Cardiology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第4期326-332,共7页
Background Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) protocols have diversified to include home-based cardiac tele-rehabilitation (HBCTR) as an alternative to hospital-based or center-based CR. To adopt the use of home-based ca... Background Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) protocols have diversified to include home-based cardiac tele-rehabilitation (HBCTR) as an alternative to hospital-based or center-based CR. To adopt the use of home-based cardiac tele-rehabilitation, it is necessary to assess cardiac patients' attitudes towards acceptance of such e-health technology, especially in China where knowledge of such technology is deficient. Methods Interviews were conducted in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China. After percutaneous coronary interventional (PCI) surgery, patients completed the survey. Results Among the 150 patients, only 13% had ever heard of HBCTR. After an introduction of our HBCTR program, 60% of patients were willing to participate in the program. From our multivariate analysis of questionnaire data, age (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.864).98; P = 0.007), average family monthly income (OR: 0.13, 95% CI: 0.05-0.341 P 〈 0.001), education level (OR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.10-0.59; P = 0.002) and physical exercise time (OR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.06-0.56; P = 0.003) were independent predictors for acceptance of HBCTR. From the reasons for participation, patients selected: enhanced safety and independ ence (28.3%), ability to self-monitor physical conditions daily (25 A%), and having automatic and emergency alert (23.1%). Reasons for refusal were: too cumbersome operation (34.3%) and unnecessary protocol (19.4%). Conclusions Most patients lacked knowledge about HBCTR but volunteered to participate after they have learned about the program. Several personal and life-style factors influenced their acceptance of the program. These indicate that both improvement of technology and better understanding of the program will enhance active participation. 展开更多
关键词 Cardiac rehabilitation Mobile health REMOTE-SENSING Tele-rehabilitation
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Colorectal cancer and 18FDG-PET/CT:What about adding the T to the N parameter in loco-regional staging? 被引量:5
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作者 Pier Paolo Mainenti Delfina Iodice +5 位作者 Sabrina Segreto Giovanni Storto Mario Magliulo Giovanni Domenico De Palma Marco Salvatore Leonardo Pace 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第11期1427-1433,共7页
AIM:To evaluate whether FDG-positron emission tomography(PET)/computed tomography(CT)may be an accurate technique in the assessment of the T stage in patients with colorectal cancer.METHODS:Thirty four consecutive pat... AIM:To evaluate whether FDG-positron emission tomography(PET)/computed tomography(CT)may be an accurate technique in the assessment of the T stage in patients with colorectal cancer.METHODS:Thirty four consecutive patients(20 men and 14 women;mean age:63 years)with a histologically proven diagnosis of colorectal adenocarcinoma and scheduled for surgery in our hospital were enrolled in this study.All patients underwent FDG-PET/CT preoperatively.The primary tumor site and extent were evaluated on PET/CT images.Colorectal wall invasion was analysed according to a modified T classification that considers only three stages(≤T2,T3,T4).Assessment of accuracy was carried out using 95%confidence intervals for T.RESULTS:Thirty five/37(94.6%)adenocarcinomas were identified and correctly located on PET/CT images.PET/CT correctly staged the T of 33/35 lesions identified showing an accuracy of 94.3%(95%CI:87%-100%).All T1,T3 and T4 lesions were correctly staged,while two T2 neoplasms were overstated as T3.CONCLUSION:Our data suggest that FDG-PET/CT may be an accurate modality for identifying primary tumor and defining its local extent in patients with colorectal cancer. 展开更多
关键词 Cancer COLORECTAL Positron emission tomography/computed tomography STAGING
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Rules for confidence intervals of permeability coefficients for water flow in over-broken rock mass 被引量:7
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作者 Liu Weiqun Fei Xiaodong Fang Jingnian 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 2012年第1期29-33,共5页
Based on the steady-state seepage method, we used the Mechanical Testing and Simulation 815.02 System and a self-designed seepage instrument for over-broken stone to measure seepage properties of water flows in three ... Based on the steady-state seepage method, we used the Mechanical Testing and Simulation 815.02 System and a self-designed seepage instrument for over-broken stone to measure seepage properties of water flows in three types of crushed rock samples. Three methods of confidence interval in describing permeability coefficients are presented: the secure interval, the calculated interval and the systemic interval. The lower bound of the secure interval can be applied to water-inrush and the upper bound can solve the problem of connectivity. For the calculated interval, as the axial pressure increases, the length of confidence interval is shortened and the upper and lower bounds are reduced. For the systemic interval, the length of its confidence interval, as well as the upper and lower bounds, clearly vary under low axial pressure but are fairly similar under high axial pressure. These three methods provide useful information and references for analyzing the permeability coefficient of over-broken rock. 展开更多
关键词 Over-broken rock mass Permeability coefficient Secure interval Calculated interval Systemic interval
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A pre-warning system of abnormal energy consumption in lead smelting based on LSSVR-RP-CI 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Hong-cai FANG Hong-ru +1 位作者 MENG Lei XU Feng-xiang 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第8期2175-2184,共10页
The pre-warning of abnormal energy consumption is important for energy conservation of industrial engineering. However, related studies on the lead smelting industries which usually have a huge energy consumption are ... The pre-warning of abnormal energy consumption is important for energy conservation of industrial engineering. However, related studies on the lead smelting industries which usually have a huge energy consumption are rarely reported. Therefore, a pre-warning system was established in this study based on the intelligent prediction of energy consumption and the identification of abnormal energy consumption. A least square support vector regression (LSSVR) model optimized by the adaptive genetic algorithm was developed to predict the energy consumption in the process of lead smelting. A recurrence plots (RP) analysis and a confidence intervals (CI) analysis were conducted to quantitatively confirm the stationary degree of energy consumption and the normal range of energy consumption, respectively, to realize the identification of abnormal energy consumption. It is found the prediction accuracy of LSSVR model can exceed 90% based on the comparison between the actual and predicted data. The energy consumption is considered to be non-stationary if the correlation coefficient between the time series of periodicity and energy consumption is larger than that between the time series of periodicity and Lorenz. Additionally, the lower limit and upper limit of normal energy consumption are obtained. 展开更多
关键词 lead smelting energy consumption least square support vector regression (LSSVR) recurrence plots (RP) confidence intervals (CI)
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Quadratic Radical Function Better Than Fisher z Transformation 被引量:2
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作者 杨正瓴 段志峰 +3 位作者 王晶晶 王腾 宋延文 张军 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2013年第5期381-384,共4页
A new explicit quadratic radical function is found by numerical experiments,which is simpler and has only 70.778%of the maximal distance error compared with the Fisher z transformation.Furthermore,a piecewise function... A new explicit quadratic radical function is found by numerical experiments,which is simpler and has only 70.778%of the maximal distance error compared with the Fisher z transformation.Furthermore,a piecewise function is constructed for the standard normal distribution:if the independent variable falls in the interval(-1.519,1.519),the proposed function is employed;otherwise,the Fisher z transformation is used.Compared with the Fisher z transformation,this piecewise function has only 38.206%of the total error.The new function is more exact to estimate the confidence intervals of Pearson product moment correlation coefficient and Dickinson best weights for the linear combination of forecasts. 展开更多
关键词 normal distribution cumulative distribution function error function confidence interval correlation coefficient combination of forecasts
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Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity is an independent predictor of carotid artery atherosclerosis in the elderly 被引量:2
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作者 Jia-Yue Li Yu-Sheng Zhao 《Journal of Geriatric Cardiology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第3期157-160,共4页
Objective Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is widely used as a simple noninvasive measure of arterial softness. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of baPWV as a predictor of the carotid a... Objective Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is widely used as a simple noninvasive measure of arterial softness. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of baPWV as a predictor of the carotid artery atherosclerosis in the elderly. Methods A total of 721 elderly participants (mean ~ SD age, 70.3 -4- 5.6years) were enrolled in the current study. All participant underwent both baPWV measurement and B-mode ultrasound for the intima-media thickness. Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) was defined as the present of carotid plaque or and/or intima media thickness for at least 1.1 mm. Results A multivariate logistic regression analysis reveals that age, sex, brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity, smoking and LDL-C level showed a significant correlation with the presence of CAS. The odds ratios of CAS associated with a 500cm/s increase of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity were 2.378 [95% confidence interval, 1.36 to 4.00, P〈0.05], 3.733 [95% confidence interval, 1.729 to 8.058, P〈0.01], 4.438 [95% confidence interval, 1.659 to 11.803, P〈0.01]. The baPWV significantly correlated with IMT by bivariate correlation analysis (r=-0.39; p=0.001). After adjusting for factors influencing, baPWV all the same correlated with IMT (r=-0.35; p=0.001).Conclusion These results indicate that brachial-ankle PWV is an independent predictor of CAS in the elderly.It also means that the direct measurement of arterial stiffness by this simple method may be of great help for the evaluation of carotid artherosclerosis, at least in the elderly 展开更多
关键词 Aortic stiffness carotid arteriosclerosis pulse wave velocity
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Determinants of invasive strategy in elderly patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction 被引量:1
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作者 Antonin Negers Jacques Boddaert +5 位作者 Lucie Mora Jean-Louis Golmard Laura Moisi Ariel Cohen Jean-Philippe Collet Alice Breining 《Journal of Geriatric Cardiology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第7期465-472,共8页
Background Knowledge gaps across literature prevent current guidelines from providing the profile of elderly patients most likely to derive benefit fi^om invasive strategy (IS) in non ST-elevation myocardial infarct... Background Knowledge gaps across literature prevent current guidelines from providing the profile of elderly patients most likely to derive benefit fi^om invasive strategy (IS) in non ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Furthermore, the benefit of IS in a real-world elderly population with NSTEMI remains unclear. The aims of this study were to determine factors that lead the cardiologist to opt for an IS in elderly patients with NSTEMI, and to assess the impact of IS on the 6-month all-cause mortality. Methods This multicenter prospective study enrolled all consecutive patients aged 〉 75 years old who presented a NSTEMI and were hospitalized in cardiology intensive care unit between February 2014 and February 2015. Patients were compared on the basis of reperfusion strategy (invasive or conservative) and living status at six months, in order to determine multivariate predictors of the realization of an IS and multivariate predictors of 6-month mor- tality. Results A total of 141 patients were included; 87 (62%) underwent an IS. The strongest independent determinants of IS were younger age [odds ratio (OR): 0.85, 95%-confidence interval (CI): 0.78-0.92; P 〈 0.001) and lower "Cumulative Illness Rating Scale-Geriatric" number of categories score (OR: 0.83, 95%CI: 0.73-0.95; P = 0.002). IS was not significantly associated with 6-month survival (OR: 0.80, 95%CI: 0.27-2.38; P = 0.69). Conclusions In real-world elderly patients with NSTEMI, younger patients with fewer comorbidities profited more often from an IS. However, IS did not modify 6-month all-cause mortality. 展开更多
关键词 COMORBIDITY Coronary angiography Decision making MORTALITY Myocardial infarction
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Sex-specific effects of social networks on the prevalence, awareness, and control of hypertension among older Korean adults 被引量:1
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作者 Jiwon Baek Nam Wook Hur +1 位作者 Hyeon Chang Kim Yoosik Youm 《Journal of Geriatric Cardiology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第7期580-586,共7页
Background Hypertension is a common chronic disease among older adults, and is associated with medical complications and mor- tality. This study aimed to examine the effects of social network characteristics on the pr... Background Hypertension is a common chronic disease among older adults, and is associated with medical complications and mor- tality. This study aimed to examine the effects of social network characteristics on the prevalence, awareness, and control of hypertension among older adults. Methods The Korean Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (KSHAP) interviewed 814 〉 60-year-old residents and their spouses from a rural township between December 2011 and March 2012 (response rate: 95%). We evaluated the data from 595 partici- pants. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the effects of network characteristics on hypertension. Results We ob- served strong sex-specific network effects on the prevalence, awareness, and control of hypertension. Among older women, network density was associated with hypertension awareness [odds ratio (OR): 2.63, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03 5.37J and control (OR: 1.72; 95% CI 0.94-3.13). Among older men, large networks were associated with a lower prevalence of hypertension (OR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.58-0.96). Compared to older women, older men with coarse networks exhibited better hypertension awareness (OR: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.14-0.95) and control (OR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.19-0.91 ). Network size interacted with density for hypertension control (P = 0.051), with controlled hyperten- sion being associated with large and course networks. Conclusions A large network was associated with a lower risk for hypertension, and a coarse network was associated with hypertension awareness and control among older men. Older women with dense networks were most likely to exhibit hypertension awareness and control. 展开更多
关键词 Hypertension management Sex difference Social density Social network
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