自信心模型在决策过程中的应用

文章对过度信心这一概念进行了着重阐述并回顾了有关模型及其应用。人们避免错误发生的方法可以被归结为三大类,三类方法之间的区别与联系也是文章的一个重要的研究问题。一系列实例也能够帮助分析的进行。但是调整后的决策过程中,错误却发生了变型或进化。文章得出结论:所有的方法都不可能完全避免错误的发生,尤其是对第二层面上的错误以及混合层面错误更是收效甚微。

决策过程中错误规避的自信心模型

一般而言,错误是由系统内部的不精确性所致,能否避免决策过程中的错误,首先应分析人类决策过程,从中找出错误产生的环节及错误的结构,过度信心容易引发认知型错误,可以通过建立适当的自信心模型规避决策过程中错误。

关于构建企业家信心模型的探讨

本文试图构建一个企业家信心量化模型,从企业家对于宏观经济判断的企业家信心指数、企业家精神、企业家持续经营的商业模式,以及企业家在企业管理中的管理模式四个方面来综合评价企业家经营和管理企业的信心,供企业家经营决策参考之用。

Instruments for Analysis of Knowledge Management in Operators Companies of Metropolitan Transport Systems

This research aimed to determine instruments for analysis of knowledge management in operators companies of metropolitan transport systems. How much the goal was an exploratory research, how much the procedure was a literature search, how much as nature was an applied research, and how much as approach was qualitative research？ The following instruments were identified and selected： （a） the methodology for the analysis of metropolitan transport systems; （b） the knowledge management maturity model （Siemens）; and （c） Documentation and Information Centre. The simulation, using the tools in the knowledge management to analyze the Company Metropolitan of S^io Paulo--METRO, identified the need for improvements in eight areas and the problems： （1） rethink the knowledge management area; （2） develop new knowledge management policies; （3） define responsibilities in knowledge management area; （4） implement new knowledge management processes; （5） explore new ways and structures of knowledge; （6） consider the internal and external actors in knowledge management actions; （7） expand the dissemination of the collaborative culture; and （8） integrate in the knowledge management area current and future initiatives. The analysis shows that the transposition of the current situation to the desired situation for the company can be obtained with the implementation of an Information and Documentation Centre. The conclusion is that this set of tools allows to characterize, evaluate, and model the knowledge management in this business.

Associated ZH and WH Production in Left-Right Twin Higgs Model at LHC

At the CERN large hadron collider （LHC）, production of the Higgs boson in association with Z or W bosons provides a dramatic experimental signal for detecting the standard model （SM） Higgs boson. In this paper, we consider the contributions of the left-right twin Higgs （LRTH） model to the processes qq＇ --~ Z（W）H. Our numerical results show that, in the favorable parameter spaces, the cross sections deviate distinctly from the predictions of the SM. The possible signals of the LRTH model can be detected via these processes at the LHC experiments.

信息、信任与信心:风险共同体的建构机制

应对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情这一重大公共卫生事件的关键是建构有效的风险共同体。研究认为,风险信息、信任、信心以及风险认知和情绪体验等是风险共同体建构中的重要变量。笔者使用新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情出现初期的全国调查数据,验证了信息—信任—信心的关系模型。研究发现,疫情信息公开的及时性和透明度通过官方信息源信任对疫情防控信心产生影响,疫情防控信心进一步通过风险认知的中介作用影响人们的情绪体验。另外,官方信息源信任和非官方信息源信任可以通过风险认知的中介作用影响情绪体验,但二者作用的方式相反。

The observational constraint on constant-roll inflation

We discuss the constant-roll inflation with constant ∈1 and constant η. By using the method of Bessel function approximation, the analytical expressions for the scalar and tensor power spectra, the scalar and tensor spectral tilts, and the tensor to scalar ratio are derived up to the first order of ∈1. The model with constant ∈2 is ruled out by the observations at the 3σ confidence level, and the model with constant η is consistent with the observations at the 1σ confidence level. The potential for the model with constant η is also obtained from the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Although the observations constrain the constant-roll inflation to be the slow-roll inflation, the ns-r results from the constant-roll inflation are not the same as those from the slow-roll inflation even when η- 0.01.

Bounding species distribution models

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management con- cern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems （GIS） might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for ＂clamping＂ model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches： classification and regression tree （CART） and maximum entropy （Maxent） models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding ex- trapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suit-able habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 （5）： 642-647,2011].