The objective of this paper is to measure the risk charge for credit risk as one of the components in the risk based capital of the capital adequacy framework. Currently, the risk charge for credit risk is measured by...The objective of this paper is to measure the risk charge for credit risk as one of the components in the risk based capital of the capital adequacy framework. Currently, the risk charge for credit risk is measured by referring it to the credit rating of a company. Following the subprime crisis in 2007, the markets start to question the soundness of the credit rating issued as it has resulted in an inadequate risk charge. Therefore, this study attempts to determine the risk charge for credit risk using the probability of default （PD） for life insurers in Malaysia. The credit risk has been categorized into several types of debt obligations. Whereby, the KMV-Merton model has been used to measure the distance to default and estimate the probability of default. The estimation of default probability is based on the movement in the price index of several debt obligations. The price index of debt obligations from year 2004 to 2009 is collected inclusive of the subprime crisis period during the crisis period. Therefore, Malaysia insurance industry is The results found that the risk charges are lower not affected by the subprime crisis in 2007.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to come up with factors in loan loss provisioning practices on commercial banks that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans. The need for this research is due to failures in the loan...The purpose of this paper is to come up with factors in loan loss provisioning practices on commercial banks that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans. The need for this research is due to failures in the loan loss provisioning practices which resulted in loan loss provisions （LLP） not reflecting on collectability of the defaulted loans. As a consequence, the banks do not capture their loss expectations and do not continuously reassess their loss expectations as the conditions affecting their borrowers may change. Henceforth, in their financial reporting, the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying credit risks conditions. When the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying risk conditions, they contradict the objectives of useful financial reporting. The results showed that among explanatory variables, bad debt recoveries as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans was rejected. Bad debt recoveries was a biased variable and inconsistent estimator. In context of perceived credit risks as the basis to make credit judgments, an estimate of bad debt recoveries had not fulfilled the criteria. On the other hand, non-performing loans （NPL） as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices was not rejected.展开更多
The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial delev...The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial deleveraging via an overly high upsurge in banks＇ risk premiums vis-a-vis the dynamics of fundamentals underlying loan repayment capability. In this context, this paper seeks to investigate the banking sector＇s internal mechanisms that might bring about a negative spiral of credit risk by building a model for the interaction between the increase of the risk premium and that of net interest income and provisioning rate. Statistical results confirm that a higher risk premium is one of the major determinants of credit default in Romania and its excessive widening could affect financial stability in Romania.展开更多
The analysis of principal data on Chinese banks highlights how they are exposed to credit risk, primarily generated from loans to public companies. Chinese banks have a good capital provision; The analysis of economic...The analysis of principal data on Chinese banks highlights how they are exposed to credit risk, primarily generated from loans to public companies. Chinese banks have a good capital provision; The analysis of economic data describes a system oriented towards relationship lending; The average profitability per employee shows wide margins of improvement in terms of efficiency and technological equipment. The comparison with the case of Italy, which like China can be considered an economy heavily oriented to banking intermediation, it is useful to highlight some peculiarities of the Chinese banking system.展开更多
Banks as the key subjects in the financing of investment have a strong influence on the risk of investors. Hence, the solvency of the bank is of crucial importance for the risk management in the investment process. Gi...Banks as the key subjects in the financing of investment have a strong influence on the risk of investors. Hence, the solvency of the bank is of crucial importance for the risk management in the investment process. Given the fact of underdevelopment of financial markets and the lack of trading activities in securities, it is evident that the investments of banks in the developing countries mostly include lending investments. Looking at the key categories of risk that influence the overall risk of the banking business in such conditions, it can be concluded that credit risk presents the dominant and decisive factor. The aim of the paper is to select the bank determinant key factors of credit risk and to determine the extent to which non-performing loans （NPL） of bank credits affect the solvency of banks, and therefore also the risk of investors. This selection of the main determinants will be based on the analysis of financial statements. This is essential, especially taking into account the impact of the global financial crisis and the increasingly frequent falling into insolvency customers. Finally, liquidity of customers is that of the bank, and it is crucial for investors to timely identify possible risks associated with bank loans in order to proactively manage risk investment.展开更多
This paper presents structural approach for the valuation of credit risk. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. It is closely tied to the potential return ...This paper presents structural approach for the valuation of credit risk. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. It is closely tied to the potential return of investment, the most notable being that the yields on bonds correlate strongly to their perceived credit risk. Structural approach is based on the volatility of the total value of the firm. The credit risk to this measured in a standard way. The random time of default is defined in an intuition way. The default event is linked to the notion of the firm＇s insolvency. This approach is known to generated low credit spreads for corporate bonds close to maturity. It requires a judicious specification of the default barrier in order to get a good fit to the observed spread curves.展开更多
The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial...The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial stability, explores how credit risk affecting the stability of financial system. Research found that the rating risk of credit risk transfer can cause default contagion in the financial markets.展开更多
Based on the panel data, we analyze the US commercial banks＇ CRT. According to the study, we find that the introduction of CRT will increase the level of banks＇ liquid risk. The performance of bank mainly is that it...Based on the panel data, we analyze the US commercial banks＇ CRT. According to the study, we find that the introduction of CRT will increase the level of banks＇ liquid risk. The performance of bank mainly is that its supervision and review of risk will drop, based on the impact of asymmetric information, commercial Banks transfer the bad loans to investors. Through the analysis we can see that after the transfer of credit risk in commercial bank did not increase income and reduce risk. Because commercial Banks can extend more bad loans to expand its lending scale, and bad loans will increase the bank overall risk.展开更多
Joint loan guarantee contracts and mutual guarantee contracts among SMEs form the basis of SME guarantee networks. The expansion of these networks increases the fragility of a financial system as a result of the regio...Joint loan guarantee contracts and mutual guarantee contracts among SMEs form the basis of SME guarantee networks. The expansion of these networks increases the fragility of a financial system as a result of the regional and industrial risk contagion embedded within them. By providing a theoretical framework of a loan guarantee network, a method is proposed for calculating the amount of risk spillover caused by loan guarantees taking the perspective of the entire network. In addition,the route of risk contagion in guarantee networks is analyzed, revealing that when default risk shocks occur, risk contagion travels along the nodes not once but for several rounds and that the risk control of one firm cannot prevent these systemic risks. Therefore, a risk control scheme is designed based on the location and importance of firms in the network. Using data from a real guarantee network,we demonstrate that identifying the node locations of firms' in the guarantee network(including the coritivity and closeness of the firm) can help in understanding risk contagion mechanisms and preventing systemic credit risk before a crisis occurs.展开更多
In order to improve the precision of personal credit risk assessment, applying rough set and neural network to the credit risk scoring prediction problem in an attempt to suggest a new model with better classification...In order to improve the precision of personal credit risk assessment, applying rough set and neural network to the credit risk scoring prediction problem in an attempt to suggest a new model with better classification accuracy. To evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model, we compare its performance with those of SVM, linear discriminate analysis, logistic regression analysis, K-nearest neighbors, classification and regression tree, neural network and PCA-NN. The experimental results show the model have a very good prediction accuracy展开更多
In recent years artificial neural networks are used to recognize the risk category of investigated companies. The research is based on data from 81 listed enterprises that applied for credit in domestic regional banks...In recent years artificial neural networks are used to recognize the risk category of investigated companies. The research is based on data from 81 listed enterprises that applied for credit in domestic regional banks operating in China. The backpropagation algorithm-the multilayer feedforward network structure is described. Each firm is described by 9 diagnostic variables and potential borrowers are classified into four classes. The efficiency of classification is evaluated in terms of classification errors calculated from the actual classification made by the credit officers. The results of the experiments show that LevenbergMarque training error is smallest among 4 learning algorithms and its performance is better, and application of artificial neural networks and classification functions can support the creditworthiness evaluation of borrowers.展开更多
文摘The objective of this paper is to measure the risk charge for credit risk as one of the components in the risk based capital of the capital adequacy framework. Currently, the risk charge for credit risk is measured by referring it to the credit rating of a company. Following the subprime crisis in 2007, the markets start to question the soundness of the credit rating issued as it has resulted in an inadequate risk charge. Therefore, this study attempts to determine the risk charge for credit risk using the probability of default （PD） for life insurers in Malaysia. The credit risk has been categorized into several types of debt obligations. Whereby, the KMV-Merton model has been used to measure the distance to default and estimate the probability of default. The estimation of default probability is based on the movement in the price index of several debt obligations. The price index of debt obligations from year 2004 to 2009 is collected inclusive of the subprime crisis period during the crisis period. Therefore, Malaysia insurance industry is The results found that the risk charges are lower not affected by the subprime crisis in 2007.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to come up with factors in loan loss provisioning practices on commercial banks that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans. The need for this research is due to failures in the loan loss provisioning practices which resulted in loan loss provisions （LLP） not reflecting on collectability of the defaulted loans. As a consequence, the banks do not capture their loss expectations and do not continuously reassess their loss expectations as the conditions affecting their borrowers may change. Henceforth, in their financial reporting, the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying credit risks conditions. When the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying risk conditions, they contradict the objectives of useful financial reporting. The results showed that among explanatory variables, bad debt recoveries as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans was rejected. Bad debt recoveries was a biased variable and inconsistent estimator. In context of perceived credit risks as the basis to make credit judgments, an estimate of bad debt recoveries had not fulfilled the criteria. On the other hand, non-performing loans （NPL） as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices was not rejected.
文摘The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial deleveraging via an overly high upsurge in banks＇ risk premiums vis-a-vis the dynamics of fundamentals underlying loan repayment capability. In this context, this paper seeks to investigate the banking sector＇s internal mechanisms that might bring about a negative spiral of credit risk by building a model for the interaction between the increase of the risk premium and that of net interest income and provisioning rate. Statistical results confirm that a higher risk premium is one of the major determinants of credit default in Romania and its excessive widening could affect financial stability in Romania.
文摘The analysis of principal data on Chinese banks highlights how they are exposed to credit risk, primarily generated from loans to public companies. Chinese banks have a good capital provision; The analysis of economic data describes a system oriented towards relationship lending; The average profitability per employee shows wide margins of improvement in terms of efficiency and technological equipment. The comparison with the case of Italy, which like China can be considered an economy heavily oriented to banking intermediation, it is useful to highlight some peculiarities of the Chinese banking system.
文摘Banks as the key subjects in the financing of investment have a strong influence on the risk of investors. Hence, the solvency of the bank is of crucial importance for the risk management in the investment process. Given the fact of underdevelopment of financial markets and the lack of trading activities in securities, it is evident that the investments of banks in the developing countries mostly include lending investments. Looking at the key categories of risk that influence the overall risk of the banking business in such conditions, it can be concluded that credit risk presents the dominant and decisive factor. The aim of the paper is to select the bank determinant key factors of credit risk and to determine the extent to which non-performing loans （NPL） of bank credits affect the solvency of banks, and therefore also the risk of investors. This selection of the main determinants will be based on the analysis of financial statements. This is essential, especially taking into account the impact of the global financial crisis and the increasingly frequent falling into insolvency customers. Finally, liquidity of customers is that of the bank, and it is crucial for investors to timely identify possible risks associated with bank loans in order to proactively manage risk investment.
文摘This paper presents structural approach for the valuation of credit risk. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. It is closely tied to the potential return of investment, the most notable being that the yields on bonds correlate strongly to their perceived credit risk. Structural approach is based on the volatility of the total value of the firm. The credit risk to this measured in a standard way. The random time of default is defined in an intuition way. The default event is linked to the notion of the firm＇s insolvency. This approach is known to generated low credit spreads for corporate bonds close to maturity. It requires a judicious specification of the default barrier in order to get a good fit to the observed spread curves.
文摘The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial stability, explores how credit risk affecting the stability of financial system. Research found that the rating risk of credit risk transfer can cause default contagion in the financial markets.
文摘Based on the panel data, we analyze the US commercial banks＇ CRT. According to the study, we find that the introduction of CRT will increase the level of banks＇ liquid risk. The performance of bank mainly is that its supervision and review of risk will drop, based on the impact of asymmetric information, commercial Banks transfer the bad loans to investors. Through the analysis we can see that after the transfer of credit risk in commercial bank did not increase income and reduce risk. Because commercial Banks can extend more bad loans to expand its lending scale, and bad loans will increase the bank overall risk.
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71172186,71472148,71572144 and 71502138
文摘Joint loan guarantee contracts and mutual guarantee contracts among SMEs form the basis of SME guarantee networks. The expansion of these networks increases the fragility of a financial system as a result of the regional and industrial risk contagion embedded within them. By providing a theoretical framework of a loan guarantee network, a method is proposed for calculating the amount of risk spillover caused by loan guarantees taking the perspective of the entire network. In addition,the route of risk contagion in guarantee networks is analyzed, revealing that when default risk shocks occur, risk contagion travels along the nodes not once but for several rounds and that the risk control of one firm cannot prevent these systemic risks. Therefore, a risk control scheme is designed based on the location and importance of firms in the network. Using data from a real guarantee network,we demonstrate that identifying the node locations of firms' in the guarantee network(including the coritivity and closeness of the firm) can help in understanding risk contagion mechanisms and preventing systemic credit risk before a crisis occurs.
文摘In order to improve the precision of personal credit risk assessment, applying rough set and neural network to the credit risk scoring prediction problem in an attempt to suggest a new model with better classification accuracy. To evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model, we compare its performance with those of SVM, linear discriminate analysis, logistic regression analysis, K-nearest neighbors, classification and regression tree, neural network and PCA-NN. The experimental results show the model have a very good prediction accuracy
文摘In recent years artificial neural networks are used to recognize the risk category of investigated companies. The research is based on data from 81 listed enterprises that applied for credit in domestic regional banks operating in China. The backpropagation algorithm-the multilayer feedforward network structure is described. Each firm is described by 9 diagnostic variables and potential borrowers are classified into four classes. The efficiency of classification is evaluated in terms of classification errors calculated from the actual classification made by the credit officers. The results of the experiments show that LevenbergMarque training error is smallest among 4 learning algorithms and its performance is better, and application of artificial neural networks and classification functions can support the creditworthiness evaluation of borrowers.
