Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and mod...Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.展开更多
Coal is the principal form of energy used in China. Hence, coal price variations are expected to have some influence on merchandise prices. Monthly data from January, 2002, to October, 2010, were used to construct a v...Coal is the principal form of energy used in China. Hence, coal price variations are expected to have some influence on merchandise prices. Monthly data from January, 2002, to October, 2010, were used to construct a varying-parameter state space model, and an error correction model, to estimate the influence of coat prices on Chinese merchandise prices. The time lag and the dynamic relationship were determined from the data. A long term equilibrium relationship between coal price and the PPI, and the CPI, can be observed. The long term influence of coal price fluctuations on the PPI is 0.263%. The corresponding value for the CPI is 0.157%. The PPI shows an influence from coal price change in the first period of observation： by eight periods the influence is obvious, after which it diminishes. The effect of coal price change on the CPI is rather weak and has no long term memory. Analysis of variance shows a similar situation. The elas- ticity coefficient of coal prices on the CPI, or the PPI, fluctuates over the 2002-2004 period. From 2002 to 2007 the influence elasticity on the CPI declined and subsequently levelled off after 2009.展开更多
Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, ...Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51279116)the New Teacher Fund of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 20120181120124)+1 种基金the Excellent Scholar Fund of Sichuan UniversityOpen Fund Program of State key Laboratory of Hydraulics and River Engineering, Sichuan University, China (Grant No. 0901)
文摘Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.
基金support for this work, provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71003097)Jiangsu Province Social Science Foundation (No. 10EYD025)2008 China University of Mining and Technology Youth Foundation Program (No.2008W04)
文摘Coal is the principal form of energy used in China. Hence, coal price variations are expected to have some influence on merchandise prices. Monthly data from January, 2002, to October, 2010, were used to construct a varying-parameter state space model, and an error correction model, to estimate the influence of coat prices on Chinese merchandise prices. The time lag and the dynamic relationship were determined from the data. A long term equilibrium relationship between coal price and the PPI, and the CPI, can be observed. The long term influence of coal price fluctuations on the PPI is 0.263%. The corresponding value for the CPI is 0.157%. The PPI shows an influence from coal price change in the first period of observation： by eight periods the influence is obvious, after which it diminishes. The effect of coal price change on the CPI is rather weak and has no long term memory. Analysis of variance shows a similar situation. The elas- ticity coefficient of coal prices on the CPI, or the PPI, fluctuates over the 2002-2004 period. From 2002 to 2007 the influence elasticity on the CPI declined and subsequently levelled off after 2009.
文摘Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.
