Climate refugia can serve as a remnant habitat or stepping stones for species dispersal under climate warming.The largest freshwater lake by surface area,Lake Superior,USA and Canada,serves as a model system for under...Climate refugia can serve as a remnant habitat or stepping stones for species dispersal under climate warming.The largest freshwater lake by surface area,Lake Superior,USA and Canada,serves as a model system for understanding cooling-mediated local refugia,as its cool water temperatures and wave action have maintained shoreline habitats suitable for southern disjunct populations of arctic-alpine plants since deglaciation.Here,we seek to explain spatial patterns and environmental drivers of arctic-alpine plant refugia along Lake Superior’s shores,and assess future risk to refugia under moderate(+3.5℃)and warmest(+5.7℃)climate warming scenarios.First,we examined how the interactive effects of summer surface water temperatures and wind affected onshore temperatures,resulting in areas of cooler refugia.Second,we developed an ecological niche model for the presence of disjunct arctic-alpine refugia(pooling 1253 occurrences from 58 species)along the lake’s shoreline.Third,we fit species distribution models for 20 of the most common arctic-alpine disjunct species and predicted presence to identify refugia hotspots.Finally,we used the two climate warming scenarios to predict changes in the presence of refugia and disjunct hotspots.Bedrock type,elevation above water,inland distance,July land surface temperature from MODIS/Terra satellite and near-shore depth of water were the best predictors of disjunct occurrences.Overall,we predicted 2236 km of the shoreline(51%)as disjunct refugia habitat for at least one species under current conditions,but this was reduced to 20% and 7% with moderate(894 km)and warmest(313 km)climate change projections.展开更多
The complete description of outdoor luminous and thermal environment is the basis for daylight utilization design with simulation tools.Nevertheless,Typical Meteorological Year(TMY)and generation method specifically d...The complete description of outdoor luminous and thermal environment is the basis for daylight utilization design with simulation tools.Nevertheless,Typical Meteorological Year(TMY)and generation method specifically developed for the energy simulation of daylight-utilized buildings is still unavailable currently.Luminous environment parameters have not been taken into consideration in existing TMY generation methods.In this study,the feasibility of existing TMY generation process has been examined.A generic office model implementing sided window daylighting is established.Historical meteorological data of Hong Kong region from 1979 to 2007 have been collected and three existing weighting schemes are applied during the Typical Meteorological Month(TMM)selection procedures.Three TMY files for Hong Kong are generated and used to conduct integrated Climate-Based Daylight Modeling and building energy simulation.The result demonstrates that,on annual basis,the energy consumption results obtained from the generated TMY files are in good agreements with the long-term mean annual value.The maximum deviation of annual energy consumptions for the generated TMY files is only 1.8%.However,further analysis on monthly basis shows that all the three generated TMY files fail to fully represent the long-term monthly mean level.The maximum deviation of monthly energy consumptions for the generated TMY files can reach up to 11%.As the energy performance daylight utilization is subject to weather change,analysis on daily and monthly energy level is important,especially during design stage.The deficiency of existing TMM selection process and TMY generation method indicates the necessity to develop a corresponding typical weather data input with finer resolution for the energy simulation of daylight-related buildings.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(RGPIN-2019-06040).
文摘Climate refugia can serve as a remnant habitat or stepping stones for species dispersal under climate warming.The largest freshwater lake by surface area,Lake Superior,USA and Canada,serves as a model system for understanding cooling-mediated local refugia,as its cool water temperatures and wave action have maintained shoreline habitats suitable for southern disjunct populations of arctic-alpine plants since deglaciation.Here,we seek to explain spatial patterns and environmental drivers of arctic-alpine plant refugia along Lake Superior’s shores,and assess future risk to refugia under moderate(+3.5℃)and warmest(+5.7℃)climate warming scenarios.First,we examined how the interactive effects of summer surface water temperatures and wind affected onshore temperatures,resulting in areas of cooler refugia.Second,we developed an ecological niche model for the presence of disjunct arctic-alpine refugia(pooling 1253 occurrences from 58 species)along the lake’s shoreline.Third,we fit species distribution models for 20 of the most common arctic-alpine disjunct species and predicted presence to identify refugia hotspots.Finally,we used the two climate warming scenarios to predict changes in the presence of refugia and disjunct hotspots.Bedrock type,elevation above water,inland distance,July land surface temperature from MODIS/Terra satellite and near-shore depth of water were the best predictors of disjunct occurrences.Overall,we predicted 2236 km of the shoreline(51%)as disjunct refugia habitat for at least one species under current conditions,but this was reduced to 20% and 7% with moderate(894 km)and warmest(313 km)climate change projections.
基金supported in part by grants from Science and Technology Support Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutralization Special Project of Shanghai 2021“Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan”[grant numbers 21DZ1208400].
文摘The complete description of outdoor luminous and thermal environment is the basis for daylight utilization design with simulation tools.Nevertheless,Typical Meteorological Year(TMY)and generation method specifically developed for the energy simulation of daylight-utilized buildings is still unavailable currently.Luminous environment parameters have not been taken into consideration in existing TMY generation methods.In this study,the feasibility of existing TMY generation process has been examined.A generic office model implementing sided window daylighting is established.Historical meteorological data of Hong Kong region from 1979 to 2007 have been collected and three existing weighting schemes are applied during the Typical Meteorological Month(TMM)selection procedures.Three TMY files for Hong Kong are generated and used to conduct integrated Climate-Based Daylight Modeling and building energy simulation.The result demonstrates that,on annual basis,the energy consumption results obtained from the generated TMY files are in good agreements with the long-term mean annual value.The maximum deviation of annual energy consumptions for the generated TMY files is only 1.8%.However,further analysis on monthly basis shows that all the three generated TMY files fail to fully represent the long-term monthly mean level.The maximum deviation of monthly energy consumptions for the generated TMY files can reach up to 11%.As the energy performance daylight utilization is subject to weather change,analysis on daily and monthly energy level is important,especially during design stage.The deficiency of existing TMM selection process and TMY generation method indicates the necessity to develop a corresponding typical weather data input with finer resolution for the energy simulation of daylight-related buildings.
