中国古历中的步发敛

考察了中国历代历法中的发敛术,综合35部历法的候策、卦策和土王策数据,确认其与岁实(回归年长度)之间的数量关系,其中:候策=1/72岁实,表各候值日时长;卦策=1/60岁实,为各卦值日时长。土王策与岁实的关系计有6种,但并不独立,多为土王策=1/120岁实,本质为各季土王主事1/20岁实。由此校正了古历经文中有关步发敛数据,并给出了依《大衍历》和《授时历》推步的部分算例。

Study on Crops Classification Based on Multi-spectral Image and Decision Tree Method

[Objective] The aim was to explore the feasibility of using single spectrum image to classify crops based on multi-spectral image and Decision Tree Method. [Method] Taking the typical agriculture plantation area in Hulunbeier area, according to field measured spectrum data, the optimum time of main crops, barley, wheat, rapeseed, based on crops spectrum characteristics, by dint of decision-making tree method, and considering spectral matching method, classification of crops was studied such as SAM. [Result] By dint of Landsat TM image gained in the first half of August, based on geographic and atmospheric proof-reading, decision-making tree was constructed. Plantation information about wheat, barley, and rapeseed and plantation grassland was extracted successfully. The general classification accuracy reached 86.90%. Kappa coefficient was 0.831 1. [Conclusion] Taking typical spectrum image as data source, and applying Decision Tree Method to get crops type＇s information had fine application future.

Bound to lead?Rethinking China's role after Paris in UNFCCC negotiations

As the biggest global emitter of greenhouse gases, China is an extremely important actor in international climate negotiations. During the climate summit in Copenhagen, China was blamed for its uncooperative positions particularly from the US side. However, in the Paris climate process, China's participation in international negotiations is more active, and has become a wellrecognized promoter of the Paris Agreement. To understand China's climate policy, the economic and diplomatic strategy should be taken into consideration, especially the changes in the ideas of China's global governance rooted from domestic politics discourse. Moreover, China's symmetrical changes within domestic and international dimension possibly bring out more balanced climate policies and thus the constructive role of China will be the normalcy in the future United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changenegotiations. However, the negotiations after the US presidential elections may change dramatically and yields great uncertainty for global action. Thus, the vacuum of power may be a possible scenario. Will China reinforce its role toward leadership or go back to group politics? This article examines China's concerns, motives, and possible path to climate leadership in the current debate.

Roles of State Strategy of Adaptation to Climate Change in China

For the adverse impacts of climate change, China gov- ernment should place the problem of adaptation to climate change on the agenda. It is time to institute and implement a state adap- tive strategy to reduce the adverse impacts on economy, commu- nity and people's health and life by international cooperation and our own endeavor. A state strategy of adaptation to climate change should be closely linked with other current interrelated national strategies, and they should be supplemented and improved by each other. This paper discusses the roles of the state strategy of adaptation to climate change in the state climate change integra- tive strategy, the environmental protection strategy, and the sus- tainable development strategy in China. Furthermore, it proposes the main aims of the state adaptive strategy of China.

Simulation of Climate Negotiation Strategies between China and the U.S. Based on Game Theory

Consensus and disagreements between China and the U.S. are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth, together with the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility, a strategic simulation model including China and the U.S. is developed. Based on utility and game theory, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The results show that the first-mover disadvantage exists in the game, and the scale of each country＇s climate change investment under non-cooperative win-win basis for global cooperation, the technology transfer and funding to China scenario is too small to ensure the 2℃ simulation results also indicate that it target. To guarantee the stability and makes sense to assist and compensate

The gap report of global climate change mitigation, finance, and governance after the United States declared its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement

On 1 June 2017, the US President Donald Trump officially announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, thus the study on the reasons of withdrawal, the potential impacts, and coping strategies has become a focus among policy circles and of the international community. Based on the self-developed US Policy Assessment Model, this paper systematically evaluates the three potential ＂major deficits＂ in terms of mitigation, climate finance, and global climate governance, as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and puts forward policy suggestions for coping with such transformations accordingly. The study shows that the United States ＇withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the existence and implementation of successive climate policies and result in an additional 8.8-13.4% increase in the global emissions reduction deficit. The United States＇ withdrawal will also deteriorate the existing climate finance mechanism. The Green Climate Fund （GCF）＇s funding gap will increase by USS2 billion, while the gap of long-term climate finance will increase by about USS5 billion a year. Either the China-EU or the ＂BASIC plus＂ mechanism could fill the governance deficit caused by the United States and the lack of political momentum may continue for a while in the future.

Climate technology promotion in the Republic of Korea

The implementation of climate technologies and their commercialization ultimately depends on the success of their research and development(R&D) projects. In the Republic of Korea(ROK), twenty-seven climate technologies were selected to boost the greening of existing industries and to develop new green industries to promote a sustainable climate technology development strategy. Rechargeable battery technology, carbon capture and storage(CCS) technology, smart grids, and sewage treatment are all research areas expected to have tangible outcomes in the forthcoming years. As such, they were included in a comprehensive R&D plan for climate technology advancement, which places an emphasis on climate technology development and commercialization strategy. In this study, the R&D plan of the ROK is reviewed by examining its six core climate technology programs: solar cells, fuel cells, bioenergy, rechargeable battery technology, information technology(IT) applications for the power sector, and CCS technology in detail. The climate policy in the ROK aims to find new economic growth engines and to develop new business opportunities while actively participating in international efforts to combat climate change.

Role of Researcher/Academia in Making UK Low Carbon Policy

This study focuses on the role of researcher/academia in making low carbon policy in the UK. UK researchers and universities enjoy relatively high degree of independence of their research from the government due to its statute that guarantees its independence （＂The Haldene Principle＂）. In addition, there was a recent movement for evidence-based policy in the UK, which requires more economic and scientific robustness, therefore role of engineers and social scientists are increasingly important. In particular, social science will have a greater role in changing people＇s behavior with high level of uncertainty. UK businesses have played a leading role to move forward the climate policy such as UKETS （United Kingdom Emissions Trading Scheme） as well as low carbon policy. The regular communication and consultation is a crucial basis for making integrated policy, which involves wide range of stakeholders. The legally binding targets set out by Climate Change Act 2008 required structural change of the government to implement the necessary policies and measures especially by integrating climate and energy policy.

Potential effects of future adoption of the REDD mechanism as a preventive measure against deforestation and forest degradation in North Korea

This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation （REDD） mechanism. Basic data were obtained for implementing the REDD mechanism in the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） for scientific decision-making to prevent deforestation and forest degradation. The potential effects according to the implementation of the REDD mechanism in the DPRK based on forest status data （the latest） are as follows. If the deforestation rate is reduced to a level below 6% through a 20-year REDD mechanism beginning in 2011, 0.01-11.64 C-tons of carbon credit per ha could be issued for DPRK. Converted into C02-tons per ha, this amounts to 0.03-42.68 C02-tons, which translates to a minimum of 226,000 CO2-tons and a maximum of 289,082,000 C02-tons overall for forests in DPRK. In terms of carbon price, this measures up to 1.1o million USD- 1.4 billion USD, considering that the REDD carbon price in voluntary carbon markets in 2010 was around 5 USD.

Minimum Regret Climate Policy with Act-Then-Learn Decision-A New Model Framework under Long-Term Uncertainties

The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On the other hand, the existing min-max regret strategy tends to be dominated by the ＂worst assumption＂ regardless of its probability. This research proposes a new framework by formulating the regret by the Minkowski＇s generalized distance. The authors then apply the formulation to the IAM （integrated assessment model） MARIA. This study focuses on the uncertainties of CCS （carbon capture and storage） costs and the global warming damages. This formulation is then extended to the multi-stage decision frame, known as ATL （act-then-learn） method. The simulation results suggest that the substantial changes in CCS and nuclear deployment strategies depending on the future uncertainty scenarios. The results also suggest that the minimum regret strategy favors the capital accumulation in the early stage.

Rainwater harvesting in the challenge of droughts and climate change in semi-arid Brazil

Some successful experiences of rainwater harvesting in Brazil’s semi-arid region are shown how rural communities are living during the severe drought from 2011 to 2013 using technologies of rainwater harvesting for the household in agriculture livestock raising and the environment.Starting from the positive experiences principles of living in the challenge of droughts and climate change are elaborated and summarized into different guidelines for sustainable livelihood and production access to water and sufficient land area rainwater harvesting to provide water security to households and communities preservation recovering and management of drought-resistant vegetation emphases on raising of small and medium sized livestock and water and forage storage appropriate crop selection and sustainable extraction processing and marketing of crop products capacity building of the people. These principles contribute to preparing a national policy on living in harmony with the semi-arid climate. Rainwater harvesting is an important part of a package of measures which enables a sustainable livelihood in such a difficult environment.

Transaction Costs in Global Ecology Policy-Making

Global environmental meeting, legislating a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases for planet earth, is what mankind now hopes for, having realized the enormous dangers in the process of climate change. Global warming is no longer denied by the so-called cornucopians （e.g. Lomberg）, but global policy-making originating in reunions of 190 governments or more stumble on collective action difficulties, spelled out in game theory. Paris will not succeed where Copenhagen failed, namely to arrive at a binding and enforceable global environment policy that will be implemented before it is too late. Instead, there will be massive transaction costs from negotiating and re-negotiating, endless voting, the making of promises exante and reneging ex post, as well as the futile attempts at any enforcement action, given state sovereignty. Mankind will have to learn how to cope with the outcomes of global warming, as resilience is the only hope.

Negotiation Strategies of Myanmar Migrant Workers in the Sidhiphatra Cold Storage Factory, Songkhla Province

This paper studies the Myanmar migrant workers in Sidhiphatra Cold Storage Factory, Songkhla Province. This factory employs just over 2,000 Myanmar migrant workers. The authors study their ＂everyday life practices＂ as expressed in relationships among various groups, such as relationships between the Myanmar migrant workers and the factory, and the relationships between the Myanmar migrant workers and the Thai people of the surrounding communities. In analyzing these relationships and negotiations, the authors borrow the concept of ＂tactics of everyday life＂ from Michel de Certeau as a framework for analysis. The authors＇ analyses are based on in-depth interviews, non-participant observations, and focus-group discussions that collectively explored the tactics, in de Certeau＇s sense, that the Myanmar migrant workers used in negotiating their relationships with the factory and with the various communities in the area. The results indicate that Myanmar migrant workers negotiate their relationship with the factory by expressing themselves as selected workers, good workers, and being obedient to the factory＇s rules. The conflicts caused by Myanmar and Cambodian migrant workers are negotiated. Besides, Myanmar migrant workers also negotiate their relationship with the Thai people living in the surrounding communities. Their approach is showing that they are part of the communities by participating in the activities with the aim to gain acceptance of the Thai people in the surrounding communities.

Countermeasures of adaptation to climate change:establishment and application for implementation matrix

In the conceptual framework of adaptation policy assessment to climate change, adaptation measures can be categorized as two groups：facilitation and implementation. Facilitation measures refers to activities that enhance adaptive capacity, while implementation refers to activities that actually avoid adverse climate impacts on a system by reducing its exposure or sensitivity to climatic hazards, or by moderating relevant non-climatic factors. This paper aims to establish a matrix of implementation measures of adaptation to climate change, through four different ways how adaptation can influencc the relevant elements of climate change. reducing the exposure, reducing the sensitivity, alleviating the adverse impacts and reducing the negative non-climatic factors, and then further discuss the particular implementation measures of adaptation to climate change, through application studies on the selected sub-systems, intend to organize the disordered implementation measures in existent, and put forward some new measures under the guidance of this matrix, which could enrich and promote the system and content of implementation measures of adaptation.

EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks:Operational aspects and link to climate action

Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities: the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration.

Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC（Environmental Policy Integrated Climate） model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was ＆lt;0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.

Technology issues and prevention strategies on sunlight greenhouse vegetable

Energy-saving solar greenhouse vegetables cultivating is to create and improve microclimate environment with greenhouse in those seasons impossible for open cultivation production and in order to achieve the purpose of harvest in advance or in delay. Since a greenhouse needs huge construction expenses and high production costs, only though the improvement of facility utilization can we obtain better economic benefits. Vegetable germination and seedling stage need a long time for ground, so they need smaller standing area. So we concentrated in a small area of cultivation can not only create a suitable environment easily, nurture strong age seedling, but also can avoid greenhouse waste. Make transplanting to greenhouse after Seedlings breeding can effectively reduce the fertility cycle and substantially increase greenhouse utilization.

Urban transport policy response to global climate change in China

Accompanying with the economic development and the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, the energy consumption and greenhouse gases emission of transport sector increased rapidly. From the viewpoint of how the urban traffic management department should cope with the global climate change, based on the economy, institutional reform, planning and policies in China, the paper analyzed the main important problems and obstacles in the development of urban transport, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations which could lead the urban transport system transform to low carbon emission and become more suitable to the climate change.

Challenges of Integration the Policies and Measures in the National and Local Strategy of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mozambique

Global political forums on climate have identified deforestation and forest degradation actions as the main sources of atmospheric emissions. Therefore, its reduction is basically the main international agenda. The objectives of environmental policy seem to prevail conflicting, between the global, which aims to stabilize emissions with sequestration of forest carbon and local poverty reduction. REDD＋ （Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation） is considered cheap proposal for mitigation and adaptation to climate changes. Thus, Mozambique is preparing for accessing to forest carbon financing. The study analyzed interaction of policies and measures in the national and local strategy of REDD＋ in Mozambique and resorted three methodological procedures, review of previous study, interviews and seminars, in a non-probabilistic sampling. Conflicting visions among nations hinder consensus on reducing emissions and REDD＋ aims to replace the KP （Kyoto Protocol）. National strategy of REDD＋ should suggest measures and policies to reduce deforestation in key sectors contributing to emissions. Interviewees suggested technological approach （30%）, agrarian reform （26%）, institutional reform （21%） and decentralization （20%）. Therefore, 77.3% supported technological use to increase production and productivity and for the forest sector, 86.4% supported forest concessions. They also highlighted conservation agriculture, SAFs （Agroforestry Systems）, energy accessibility and mining licensing. However, REDD＋ is being projected from the global to the local, but the debate must extrapolate negotiations restricted to government participation, as well as policy options and incentives to generate co-benefits that address local community priorities.

Zero-Energy-Buildings in Different Climates： Design Strategies, Simulation and Prognosis METHOD for Energy Demand

The European Directive 2010/31 claims that by 2020 only （nearly-） ZEB （zero-energy-buildings） may be built. To reach this goal, it is pertinent for buildings to be energetically optimized first. The remaining energy demand must then be covered by on-site renewable energies （PV, geothermal, etc.）. With the area of use （energy demand） and the size of the building envelope/estate （renewable energy supply） in competition with each other, the maximum number of building stories will be most likely limited. For 15 different climatic locations worldwide, the energy demand of optimised office rooms has been simulated and compared with the possible renewable energy production on site. For every location, a good correlation has been found between the simulated energy demand and data like heating and cooling degree hours. Correspondent linear equations are given here. As another result, the maximum numbers of possible stories for ZEBS have been derived, being between 3 and 10 depending on the location.