浅谈侯麦、伯格曼和塔尔可夫斯基的特写镜头

本文对候麦、伯格曼和塔尔可夫斯基三位欧洲电影大师同时代的三部影片进行了分析，对比了《克拉之膝》《呼喊与低语》和《镜子》中对特写镜头的不同审美态度和处理方式，进而提出特写镜头在不同的艺术家手中呈现出的审美功能的差别，以及电影语言在不同文本状态下表达意义的可能性。

An Econometric Analysis on the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Cropping Area in China

[Objective] This study aimed to explore the impact of climate change on wheat cropping by using province-specific historical data during 1996-2007. [Method] We established a panel data econometric model with lagged wheat cropping area and province-specific fixed-effects model to control the unobserved factors. [Result] The results showed that the temperature positively affects wheat cropping area, while precipitation does not have such impact. [Conclusion] The study provided empirical evidence for analysis of the determinants of wheat cropping area in China.

Developing Wheat for Improved Yield and Adaptation Under a Changing Climate： Optimization of a Few Key Genes

Wheat grown under rain-fed conditions is often affected by drought worldwide. Future projections from a climate simulation model predict that the combined effects of increasing temperature and changing rainfall patterns will aggravate this drought scenario and may significantly reduce wheat yields unless appropriate varieties are adopted. Wheat is adapted to a wide range of environments due to the diversity in its phenology genes. Wheat phenology offers the opportunity to fight against drought by modifying crop developmental phases according to water availability in target environments. This review summa- rizes recent advances in wheat phenology research, including vernalization （Vrn）, photoperiod （Ppd）, and also dwarfing （Rht） genes. The alleles, haplotypes, and copy number variation identified for Vrn and Ppd genes respond differently in different climatic conditions, and thus could alter not only the development phases but also the yield. Compared with the model plant Arabidopsis, more phenology genes have not yet been identified in wheat; quantifying their effects in target environments would benefit the breeding of wheat for improved drought tolerance. Hence, there is scope to maximize yields in water-limited envi-ronments by deploying appropriate phenology gene combinations along with Rht genes and other important physiological traits that are associated with drought resistance.

The Influence of Climate Change on Winter Wheat during 2012-2100 under A2 and A1B Scenarios in China

By assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices in China, the influence of climate change on winter wheat is simulated using the corrected future climate projections under SRES A2 and A1B scenarios from 2012 to 2100, respectively. The results indicate that the growth of winter wheat would be strongly influenced by climate change in future. The average flowering and maturity dates of winter wheat would advance by 26 and 27 days under scenario A2, and by 23 and 24 days respectively under scenario A1B from 2012 to 2100. The simulated potential productivity of winter wheat shows a decrease of 14.3% and 12.5% for scenarios A2 and A1B respectively without the fertilization effect of CO2, while an increase of 1.3% and 0.6% with the fertilization effect of CO2. Additionally, for northern China, the simulated potential productivity would markedly decrease under both scenarios, independent with the fertilization effect of CO2, which indicates that the current planted winter wheat would be more vulnerable than that in southern China. The most likely reason is the current winter wheat varieties in northern China are winter varieties or strong winter varieties, which need some days of low temperature for dormancy. While in southern China, the winter wheat is spring or half winter varieties and can grow slowly during winter, thus, they would be affected slightly when winter temperature increases. The results of this study may have important implications for adaptation measures.

Comparative Analysis of Energy Efficiency in Wheat Production in Different Climate Conditions of Europe

This paper presents results concerning energy efficiency of wheat production considered in the context of specific energy input variation in different climatic conditions of Europe as well as case studies on implementation of selected energy saving measures in practice. The source data collected from the six european union （EU） countries represent five agricultural regions of continental Europe and three climates： continental, temperate and Mediterranean. The life cycle assessment （LCA） methodology was applied to analyze the data excluding of pre-farm gate activities. The total primary energy consumption was decomposed into main energy input streams and it was regressed to yield. In order to compare energy efficiency of wheat production across the geographical areas, the data envelopment analysis （DEA） was applied. It was shown that the highest wheat yield （6.7 t/ha to 8.7 t/ha） at the lowest specific energy input （2.08 GJ/t to 2.56 G J/t） is unique for temperate climate conditions. The yield in continental and Mediterranean climatic conditions is on average lower by 1.3 t/ha and 2.7 t/ha and energy efficiency lower by 14% and 38%, respectively. The case studies have shown that the energy saving activities in wheat production may be universal for the climatic zones or specific for a given geographical location. It was stated that trade-offs between energy, economic, and environmental effects, which are associated with implementation of a given energy saving measure or a set of measures to a great extent depend on the current energy efficiency status of the farm and opportunity for investment, which varies substantially across Europe.

Assessment of Climate Change Variability Impacts on Wheat and Barley Production in Palestine

The study aimed at addressing climate variability impacts on wheat and barley production in Palestine. A combination of literature survey and multiple semi-structured interviews with officials from the Palestinian governmental agriculture related agencies and active non-governmental organizations （NGOs） used for gathering information on wheat and barley production in Palestine. The gathered data along with information and subsequent results prevailed that the West Bank since the 1970s has experienced a significant decrease in winter rainfall. Across 15 sites, growing season rainfall （September to May） decreased by an average of 11% and the sum of rainfall in September and October decreased by 45%. Despite the large decline in rainfall, yields based on the actual weather data did not fall. These results were due to the rainfall changes mainly occurring in September and October, a period when rainfall often is less than crop demand. The study arrived at conclusion based on the study results that climate change variabilities have differential impacts on the yield growth of wheat and barley. However, both rainfed dependent crops are adversely affected by the current climate trends. The yields of barley and wheat are decreasing due to increased temperature and decreased precipitation.

Distribution of Origanum vulgare L. and Population Dynamics During the Last Decade in Armenia

This paper examines the distribution and structure of populations of a medicinal and culinary herb native to Armenia. As one of the first countries to join the Convention on Biological Diversity （CBD）, Armenia has a strong interest in assessing the biodiversity of its native flora and identifying threats to the conservation of these species, particularly those with economic value. Only limited information, however, is available at this time on the genetic biodiversity, population location, structure and size, and conservation status of most of these species. This paper reports the results of five consecutive years of field studies conducted in Armenia to 1） re-locate native populations of the important medicinal and culinary herb, Origanum vulgare L., 2） locate new populations, and 3） assess the growth pattern and dynamics of the populations. The quadrat sampling technique was used to identify key elements that determined population size and abundance. GPS maps of present and past population distributions were created. Particular habitat and environmental factors were identified as crucial to predicting the future conditions of these populations under the impact of global climate change. The research provides a baseline dataset that can be used for the development of further conservation strategies of this important medicinal and culinary species in Armenia.

Modelling Agronomically-Suitable Sowing Date in Relation to the Risk of Frost Damage and Heat Stress of Wheat in Southern New South Wales, Australia

Sowing time of wheat in south eastern Australia varies from autumn to early winter, depending on the seasonal ＇break＇. Wheat yields are often reduced by frost damage at flowering time and by heat-and/or water-stress during grain filling. Selecting suitable varieties for specific sowing times is a complex decision farmers make because these varietal phenology and climate risks have to be assessed together. In order to help farmers make decisions, they need tools that simulate and analyse agronomically-suitable sowing dates （ASSD） for a given variety of wheat. The hypothesis underlining this study is the integration of a wheat phenology model with historical climate data is an effective approach to modelling the ASSD of current varieties used in the wheat growing areas of Southern NSW. The parameters of the wheat phenology model were based on data from five years of field experimentation across 15 sites. Data from four sites were used to examine varietal suitability in relation to sowing time and its associated risks of frost and heat damage. The optimum ASSD for any variety at 72 locations across Southern NSW was investigated. The results showed that there were substantial spatial variations in the ASSD across the target region. ASSD for a late maturing wheat genotype （EGA Gregory） can range from early March to late April, while the earliest acceptable sowing date for an early maturing spring wheat genotype （H46） can range from early to late May. The wide range of spatial variation in the earliest and latest sowing dates, as well as the varied length of sowing opportunities, highlighted the importance of being able to apply a modelling approach which can integrate information on crop phenology with climate risk for a given location. This approach would allow better decision-making on suitable varieties and sowing dates in order to minimise the risk of frost and heat damage affecting crop yield.

Impacts of Climate Change on Growth Period and Planting Boundaries of Spring Wheat in China under RCP4.5 Scenario

This article contributes to research on how climate change will impact crops in China by moving from ex-post empirical analysis to forecasting. We construct a multiple regression model, using agricultural observations and meteorological simulations by GCMs, to simulate the possible planting boundaries and suitable planting re- gions of spring wheat under RCP4.5 scenario for the base period 2040s and 2070s. We find that the south bound- ary of possible planting region for spring wheat spreads along the belt： south Shandong-north Jiangsu-north Anhui-central Henan-north Hubei-southeast Sichuan-north Yunnan provinces, and will likely move northward under RCP4.5 scenario in 2040s and 2070s, resulting in the decrease of possible planting area in China. Moreover, the sowing and harvest date of spring wheat in the base period shows a gradually delayed phenomenon from the belt： south Xinjiang - Gansu, to the Tibet Plateau. As a result, the growth period of spring wheat in China will shorten because of the impacts of climate change. These results imply that a variety of adaptations measures should be set up in response to changing climatic conditions, including developing the planting base for spring wheat, restricting the planting area of spring wheat in sub-suitable areas at risk while expanding the planting area of optimal crops.

Spatiotemporal differentiation of changes in wheat phenology in China under climate change from 1981 to 2010

Phenology is a reliable biological indicator for reflecting climate change. An examination of changes in crop phenology and the mechanisms driving them is critical for guiding regional agricultural activities in attempts to adapt to climate change. Due to a lack of records based on continuous long-term observation, studies on changes in multiple consecutive phenological stages throughout a whole growing season on a national scale are rarely found, especially with regard to the spatiotemporal differentiation of phenological changes. Using a long-term dataset(1981-2010) of wheat phenology collected from 48 agro-meteorological stations in China, we qualified the spatiotemporal changes of 10 phenological stages as well as the length of wheat growth phases. Results showed that climate and wheat phenology changed significantly during the growing seasons from 1981 to 2010. On average, on a national scale, dates of sowing(0.19 d a-1), emergence(0.06 d a-1), trefoil(0.05 d a-1), and milk ripe(0.06 d a-1) showed a delaying trend, whereas dates of tillering(-0.02 d a-1), jointing(-0.15 d a-1),booting(-0.21 d a-1), heading(-0.17 d a-1), anthesis(-0.19 d a-1), and maturity(-0.10 d a-1) showed an advancing trend.Furthermore, the vegetative growth phase and growing season were shortened by 0.23 and 0.29 d a-1, respectively, whereas the reproductive growth phase was lengthened by 0.06 d a-1. Trends in dates of phenological stages or length of growing phases varied across wheat-planting regions. Moreover, spatiotemporal differentiation of sensitivity in growing season length(GSL) to variations in climatic factors during the growing season between spring and winter wheat were remarkable. The GSL of spring(winter) wheat decreased(increased) with an increase in average temperature during the growing season. In all wheat-planting regions, the GSL increased with the increasing of total precipitation and sunshine duration during the growing season. In particular, the sensitivity of GSL to precipitation for spring wheat was weaker than for winter wheat, while the sensitivity of GSL to sunshine duration for spring wheat was stronger than for winter wheat. Recognition of the spatiotemporal differentiation of phenological changes and their response to various climatic factors will provide scientific support for decision-making in agricultural production.

Impacts and uncertainty analysis of elevated temperature and CO_2 concentration on wheat biomass

Impacts of climatic change on agriculture and adaptation are of key concern of scientific research. However, vast uncertainties exist among global climates model output, emission scenarios, scale transformation and crop model parameterization. In order to reduce these uncertainties, we integrate output results of four IPCC emission scenarios of A1 FI, A2, B1 and B2, and five global climatic patterns of HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and ECHAM4 in this study. Based on 20 databases of future climatic change scenarios from the Climatic Research Unit （CRU） , the scenario data of the climatic daily median values are generated on research sites with the global mean temperature increase of 1℃（GMT＋ID）, 2℃（GMT＋2D） and 3℃（GMT＋3D）. The impact of CO2 fertilization effect on wheat biomass for GMT＋I D, GMT＋2D and GMT＋3D in China＇s wheat-producing areas is studied in the process model, CERES-Wheat and probabilistic forecasting method. The research results show the CO2 fertilization effect can compensate reduction of wheat biomass with warming temperature in a strong compensating effect. Under the CO2 fertilization effect, the rain-fed and irrigated wheat biomasses increase respectively, and the increment of biomass goes up with temperature rising. The rain-fed wheat biomass increase is greater than the irrigated wheat biomass. Without consideration of CO2 fertilization effect, both irrigated and rain-fed wheat biomasses reduce, and there is a higher probability for the irrigated wheat biomass than that of the rain-fed wheat biomass.