Based on the Zebiak-Cane model, the timedependent nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）-type tendency errors with components of 4 and 12 （denoted by NFSV-4 and NFSV-12） are calculated for predetermined El Nifio...Based on the Zebiak-Cane model, the timedependent nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）-type tendency errors with components of 4 and 12 （denoted by NFSV-4 and NFSV-12） are calculated for predetermined El Nifio events and compared with the constant NFSV （denoted by NFSV-1） from their patterns and resultant prediction errors. Specifically, NFSV-1 has a zonal dipolar sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and positive anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pa- cific. Although the first few components in NFSV-4 and NFSV-12 present patterns similar to NFSV-1, they tend to extend their dipoles farther westward; meanwhile, the positive anomalies gradually cover much smaller regions with the lag times. In addition, the authors calculate the predic- tion errors caused by the three kinds of NFSVs, and the results indicate that the prediction error induced by NFSV-12 is the largest, followed by the NFSV-4. However, when compared with the prediction errors caused by random tendency errors, the NFSVs generate significantly larger prediction errors. It is therefore shown that the spatial structure of tendency errors is important for producing large prediction errors. Furthermore, in exploring the tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events, the timedependent NFSV should be evaluated.展开更多
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955202)the National Public Benefit (Meteorology) Research Foundation of China (Grant No. GYHY201306018)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41176013 and 41230420)
文摘Based on the Zebiak-Cane model, the timedependent nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）-type tendency errors with components of 4 and 12 （denoted by NFSV-4 and NFSV-12） are calculated for predetermined El Nifio events and compared with the constant NFSV （denoted by NFSV-1） from their patterns and resultant prediction errors. Specifically, NFSV-1 has a zonal dipolar sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and positive anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pa- cific. Although the first few components in NFSV-4 and NFSV-12 present patterns similar to NFSV-1, they tend to extend their dipoles farther westward; meanwhile, the positive anomalies gradually cover much smaller regions with the lag times. In addition, the authors calculate the predic- tion errors caused by the three kinds of NFSVs, and the results indicate that the prediction error induced by NFSV-12 is the largest, followed by the NFSV-4. However, when compared with the prediction errors caused by random tendency errors, the NFSVs generate significantly larger prediction errors. It is therefore shown that the spatial structure of tendency errors is important for producing large prediction errors. Furthermore, in exploring the tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events, the timedependent NFSV should be evaluated.
