Consumption of clean energy has been increasing in China.Forecasting gas consumption is important to adjusting the energy consumption structure in the future.Based on historical data of gas consumption from 1980 to 20...Consumption of clean energy has been increasing in China.Forecasting gas consumption is important to adjusting the energy consumption structure in the future.Based on historical data of gas consumption from 1980 to 2017,this paper presents a weight method of the inverse deviation of fitted value,and a combined forecast based on a residual auto-regression model and Kalman filtering algorithm is used to forecast gas consumption.Our results show that:(1)The combination forecast is of higher precision:the relative errors of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are within the range(–0.08,0.09),(–0.09,0.32)and(–0.03,0.11),respectively.(2)The combination forecast is of greater stability:the variance of relative error of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are 0.002,0.007 and 0.001,respectively.(3)Provided that other conditions are invariant,the predicted value of gas consumption in 2018 is 241.81×10~9 m^3.Compared to other time-series forecasting methods,this combined model is less restrictive,performs well and the result is more credible.展开更多
This article discusses computational methods for the numerical simulation of unsteady Bingham visco-plastic flow. These methods are based on time-discretization by operator-splitting and take advantage of a characteri...This article discusses computational methods for the numerical simulation of unsteady Bingham visco-plastic flow. These methods are based on time-discretization by operator-splitting and take advantage of a characterization of the solutions involving some kind of Lagrange multipliers. The full discretization is achieved by combining the above operator-splitting methods with finite element approximations, the advection being treated by a wave-like equation 'equivalent' formulation easier to implement than the method of characteristics or high order upwinding methods. The authors illustrate the methodology discussed in this article with the results of numerical experiments concerning the simulation of wall driven cavity Bingham flow in two dimensions.展开更多
基金Soft Science Research Project in Shanxi Province of China(2017041030-5)Science Fund Projects in North University of China(XJJ2016037)
文摘Consumption of clean energy has been increasing in China.Forecasting gas consumption is important to adjusting the energy consumption structure in the future.Based on historical data of gas consumption from 1980 to 2017,this paper presents a weight method of the inverse deviation of fitted value,and a combined forecast based on a residual auto-regression model and Kalman filtering algorithm is used to forecast gas consumption.Our results show that:(1)The combination forecast is of higher precision:the relative errors of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are within the range(–0.08,0.09),(–0.09,0.32)and(–0.03,0.11),respectively.(2)The combination forecast is of greater stability:the variance of relative error of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are 0.002,0.007 and 0.001,respectively.(3)Provided that other conditions are invariant,the predicted value of gas consumption in 2018 is 241.81×10~9 m^3.Compared to other time-series forecasting methods,this combined model is less restrictive,performs well and the result is more credible.
文摘This article discusses computational methods for the numerical simulation of unsteady Bingham visco-plastic flow. These methods are based on time-discretization by operator-splitting and take advantage of a characterization of the solutions involving some kind of Lagrange multipliers. The full discretization is achieved by combining the above operator-splitting methods with finite element approximations, the advection being treated by a wave-like equation 'equivalent' formulation easier to implement than the method of characteristics or high order upwinding methods. The authors illustrate the methodology discussed in this article with the results of numerical experiments concerning the simulation of wall driven cavity Bingham flow in two dimensions.
