A systematic method was proposed to estimate the occurrence probability of defective piles(OPDP) from a site according to quality assurance inspection. The OPDP was firstly suggested as the criterion to weight the per...A systematic method was proposed to estimate the occurrence probability of defective piles(OPDP) from a site according to quality assurance inspection. The OPDP was firstly suggested as the criterion to weight the performance of a pile foundation. Its prior distribution and updating distribution were deduced to follow Beta distributions. To calibrate the OPDP, a dynamic estimation model was established according to the relationships between prior mean and variance and updating mean and variance. Finally, a reliability-control method dealing with uncertainties arising from quality assurance inspection was formalized to judge whether all the bored piles from a site can be accepted. It is exemplified that the OPDP can be substantially improved when more definite prior information and sampling formation become available. For the example studied herein, the Bayesian estimator of updating variance for OPDP is reduced from 0.0037 to 0.0014 for the first inspection, from 0.0014 to 0.0009 for the second inspection, and with less uncertainty by incorporating experience information.展开更多
The optimally weighted least squares estimate and the linear minimum variance estimateare two of the most popular estimation methods for a linear model.In this paper,the authors makea comprehensive discussion about th...The optimally weighted least squares estimate and the linear minimum variance estimateare two of the most popular estimation methods for a linear model.In this paper,the authors makea comprehensive discussion about the relationship between the two estimates.Firstly,the authorsconsider the classical linear model in which the coefficient matrix of the linear model is deterministic,and the necessary and sufficient condition for equivalence of the two estimates is derived.Moreover,under certain conditions on variance matrix invertibility,the two estimates can be identical providedthat they use the same a priori information of the parameter being estimated.Secondly,the authorsconsider the linear model with random coefficient matrix which is called the extended linear model;under certain conditions on variance matrix invertibility,it is proved that the former outperforms thelatter when using the same a priori information of the parameter.展开更多
基金Project(51278216) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2013BS010) supported by Henan University of Technology Fund for High-level Talent,China
文摘A systematic method was proposed to estimate the occurrence probability of defective piles(OPDP) from a site according to quality assurance inspection. The OPDP was firstly suggested as the criterion to weight the performance of a pile foundation. Its prior distribution and updating distribution were deduced to follow Beta distributions. To calibrate the OPDP, a dynamic estimation model was established according to the relationships between prior mean and variance and updating mean and variance. Finally, a reliability-control method dealing with uncertainties arising from quality assurance inspection was formalized to judge whether all the bored piles from a site can be accepted. It is exemplified that the OPDP can be substantially improved when more definite prior information and sampling formation become available. For the example studied herein, the Bayesian estimator of updating variance for OPDP is reduced from 0.0037 to 0.0014 for the first inspection, from 0.0014 to 0.0009 for the second inspection, and with less uncertainty by incorporating experience information.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos 60232010, 60574032the Project 863 under Grant No. 2006AA12A104
文摘The optimally weighted least squares estimate and the linear minimum variance estimateare two of the most popular estimation methods for a linear model.In this paper,the authors makea comprehensive discussion about the relationship between the two estimates.Firstly,the authorsconsider the classical linear model in which the coefficient matrix of the linear model is deterministic,and the necessary and sufficient condition for equivalence of the two estimates is derived.Moreover,under certain conditions on variance matrix invertibility,the two estimates can be identical providedthat they use the same a priori information of the parameter being estimated.Secondly,the authorsconsider the linear model with random coefficient matrix which is called the extended linear model;under certain conditions on variance matrix invertibility,it is proved that the former outperforms thelatter when using the same a priori information of the parameter.
