基于因子分析建模的电话语音说话人聚类

现有基于混合高斯模型的说话人聚类方法主要依据最大后验准则,从通用背景模型中自适应得到类别的混合高斯模型,然而自适应数据较少,模型的准确性不够.对此,文中尝试基于本征语音(EV)空间和全变化(TV)空间分析的两种因子分析建模方法,通过对差异空间的建模,减少估计类别混合高斯模型时需要估计的参数个数.结果表明,在美国国家标准技术研究所2008年说话人识别评测的电话语音数据集上,相对于基于最大后验概率准则的基线系统而言,文中所使用的基于EV和TV空间分析的建模方法都可使聚类错误率有较大幅度的下降,并且TV空间分析建模相对于EV空间分析建模能获得更低的聚类错误率.

Detection of spatial hot spots and variation for the neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii resources in the northwest Pacific Ocean

With the increasing effects of global climate change and fishing activities,the spatial distribution of the neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) is changing in the traditional fishing ground of 150°-160°E and 38°-45°N in the northwest Pacific Ocean.This research aims to identify the spatial hot and cold spots(i.e.spatial clusters) of O.bartramii to reveal its spatial structure using commercial fishery data from2007 to 2010 collected by Chinese mainland squid-j igging fleets.A relatively strongly-clustered distribution for O.bartramii was observed using an exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) method.The results show two hot spots and one cold spot in 2007 while only one hot and one cold spots were identified each year from2008 to 2010.The hot and cold spots in 2007 occupied 8.2%and 5.6%of the study area,respectively;these percentages for hot and cold spot areas were 5.8%and 3.1%in 2008,10.2%and 2.9%in 2009,and 16.4%and 11.9%in 2010,respectively.Nearly half(>45%) of the squid from 2007 to 2009 reported by Chinese fleets were caught in hot spot areas while this percentage reached its peak at 68.8%in 2010,indicating that the hot spot areas are central fishing grounds.A further change analysis shows the area centered at156°E/43.5°N was persistent as a hot spot over the whole period from 2007 to 2010.Furthermore,the hot spots were mainly identified in areas with sea surface temperature(SST) in the range of 15-20℃ around warm Kuroshio Currents as well as with the chlorophyll-a(chl-a) concentration above 0.3 mg/m^3.The outcome of this research improves our understanding of spatiotemporal hotspots and its variation for O.bartramii and is useful for sustainable exploitation,assessment,and management of this squid.

Comparative Analysis of China Surface Air Temperature Series for the Past 100 Years

Temperature change plays a crucial role in global change sciences. In the past several decades, comprehensive find- ings have been achieved on temperature change in China for the past 100 years. Several time series have been created to illustrate the averaged surface air temperature for the country. The correlations of these series range from 0.73 to 0.97. It is also achieved in better data quality, wider spatial data coverage, improved homogeneity of time series, and enhanced reliability of findings. The results show an annual mean temperature increase by 0.78±0.27℃ per 100 years in China for the period 1906-2005. After prolonging the period till 2007, it is found that 2007 is rated as the warmest year in the past 100 years. Although all the series, except one, reflect temperature changes in the eastern part of China before the 1930s, they represent the general temperature change in most parts of the country after the 1930s.

Research on global change scientific satellites

Global change now poses a severe threat to the survival and development of mankind.Large-scale,real-time,highly accurate Earth observation from space has become a key technology used to observe global change.China is one of the most influential countries affecting and being affected by global change,yet it has no scientific satellite for global change research so far.Developing global change scientific satellites not only would meet an important demand of China,but also would be a valuable contribution to the world.By analyzing the mechanisms of space-based observation of variables sensitive to global change,this paper explores the concept of global change scientific satellites,and proposes a series of global change scientific satellites to establish a scientific observation system for global environmental change monitoring from space.

Conceptual study of lunar-based SAR for global change monitoring

As an active microwave remote sensing imaging sensor, Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR) plays an important role in earth observation. Here we establish a SAR system based on the platform of the moon. This will aid large-scale, constant, and long-term dynamic Earth observations to better meet the needs of global change research and to complement the space borne and airborne earth observations. Lunar-based SAR systems have the characteristics of high resolution and wide swath width. The swath width could be thousands of kilometers in the stripe mode and it could cover 40% of earth's surface with 10 meters or even higher spatial resolution in the scanning mode. Using the simplified observation model, here we quantitatively analyze the spatial resolution and coverage area of lunar-based SAR and simulate the observation on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the Amazon plain. The results show that this system could provide near 100% daily coverage of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, whereas 40% to 70% daily coverage of the Amazon plain. Lunar-based SAR could provide large-scale, long-term and stable time series data in order to support future research of global change.

Spatio-temporal evolution of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911

Based on the collation and statistical analysis of flood and drought information in Baoji area from 1368 to 1911, and in the context of climate change, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought and flood disaster chains in this area during the Ming and Qing dynasties using the methods of moving average, cumulative anomaly and wavelet analysis. The results are as follows:(1) We found a total of 297 drought and flood events from 1368 to 1911 in Baoji. Among these events, droughts and floods occurred separately 191 and 106 times, which accounted for 64.31% and 35.69% of the total events, respectively.(2) We observed distinct characteristics of flood and drought events in Baoji in different phases. The climate was relatively dry from 1368 to 1644. A fluctuant climate phase with both floods and droughts occurred from 1645 to 1804. The climate was relatively wet from 1805 to 1911. Moreover, we observed a pattern of alternating dry and wet periods from 1368 to 1911. In addition, 3 oscillation periods of drought and flood events occurred around 70 a, 110 a and 170 a, which corresponded to sunspot cycles.(3) We also observed an obvious spatial difference in drought and flood events in Baoji. The northern and eastern parts of Weihe River basin were regions with both frequent droughts and floods.(4) The sequential appearance of drought and flood disaster chains in Baoji from 1368 to 1911 was in response to global climate change. Since the 1760s, global climatic deterioration has frequently led to extreme drought and flood events.

Analysis of the Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Intensive Use and Land Ecological Security in Tianjin from 1980 to 2019

The problem of land ecological security directly threatens the sustainable development of many regions,and exploring the spatio-temporal characteristics of land ecological security is helpful for analyzing the land ecological patterns between regions and over time.Based on the interpretation of remote sensing image data for Tianjin in 1980,2000,2010 and 2019,supported by software such as ArcGIS and GeoDa,the changes of land use in the study area are calculated by using the land use dynamic degree.Then,the land ecological security index and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods are used to study the spatial correlations and internal heterogeneity of land ecological security in each district in Tianjin.The results show that:(1)The land use of Tianjin has changed dramatically in the past 40 years:the building land has been expanding,while the farmland and barren have been shrinking continuously.(2)The overall level of land ecological security is in the high security area,and Jizhou District is the highest,while the Central areas and Binhai are low.(3)The spatial heterogeneity of land ecological security is not obvious,but the spatial agglomeration is strong.