Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP), where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and...Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP), where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET) has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM) ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation-ET) about 4%-24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%-15.9%) in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.展开更多
The spatio-temporal pattern of the global water resource has significantly changed with climate change and intensified human activities. The regional economy and ecological environment are highly affected by terrestri...The spatio-temporal pattern of the global water resource has significantly changed with climate change and intensified human activities. The regional economy and ecological environment are highly affected by terrestrial water storage(TWS), especially in arid areas. To investigate the response relationships between TWS and changing environments(climate change and human activities) in Central Asia, we used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) data, Climatic Research Unit(CRU) climate data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) remote sensing data products(MOD16A2, MOD13A3 and MCD12Q1) from 2003 to 2013, as well as the slope and Pearson correlation analysis methods. Results indicate that:(1) TWS in about 77% of the study area decreased from 2003 to 2013. The total change volume of TWS is about 2915.6 × 108 m^3. The areas of decreased TWS are mainly distributed in the middle of Central Asia, while the areas of increased TWS are concentrated in the middle-altitude regions of the Kazakhstan hills and Tarim Basin.(2) TWS in about 5.91% of areas, mainly distributed in the mountain and piedmont zones, is significantly positively correlated with precipitation, while only 3.78% of areas show significant correlation between TWS and temperature. If the response time was delayed by three months, there would be a very good correlation between temperature and TWS.(3) There is a significantly positive relationship between TWS and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) in 13.35% of the study area.(4) The area of significantly positive correlation between TWS and evapotranspiration is about 31.87%, mainly situated in mountainous areas and northwestern Kazakhstan. The reduction of regional TWS is related to precipitation more than evaporation. Increasing farmland area may explain why some areas show increasing precipitation and decreasing evapotranspiration.(5) The influences of land use on TWS are still not very clear. This study could provide scientific data useful for the estimation of changes in TWS with climate change and human activities.展开更多
基金Acknowledgment This work was supported by the State's Key Project of Research and Development Plan (2010CB428404) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (41471026).
文摘Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP), where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET) has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM) ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation-ET) about 4%-24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%-15.9%) in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.51569027No.41371419+1 种基金International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.131551KYSB20160002Special Institute Main Service Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.TSS-2015-014-FW-1-2
文摘The spatio-temporal pattern of the global water resource has significantly changed with climate change and intensified human activities. The regional economy and ecological environment are highly affected by terrestrial water storage(TWS), especially in arid areas. To investigate the response relationships between TWS and changing environments(climate change and human activities) in Central Asia, we used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) data, Climatic Research Unit(CRU) climate data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) remote sensing data products(MOD16A2, MOD13A3 and MCD12Q1) from 2003 to 2013, as well as the slope and Pearson correlation analysis methods. Results indicate that:(1) TWS in about 77% of the study area decreased from 2003 to 2013. The total change volume of TWS is about 2915.6 × 108 m^3. The areas of decreased TWS are mainly distributed in the middle of Central Asia, while the areas of increased TWS are concentrated in the middle-altitude regions of the Kazakhstan hills and Tarim Basin.(2) TWS in about 5.91% of areas, mainly distributed in the mountain and piedmont zones, is significantly positively correlated with precipitation, while only 3.78% of areas show significant correlation between TWS and temperature. If the response time was delayed by three months, there would be a very good correlation between temperature and TWS.(3) There is a significantly positive relationship between TWS and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) in 13.35% of the study area.(4) The area of significantly positive correlation between TWS and evapotranspiration is about 31.87%, mainly situated in mountainous areas and northwestern Kazakhstan. The reduction of regional TWS is related to precipitation more than evaporation. Increasing farmland area may explain why some areas show increasing precipitation and decreasing evapotranspiration.(5) The influences of land use on TWS are still not very clear. This study could provide scientific data useful for the estimation of changes in TWS with climate change and human activities.