中国冰川对21世纪全球变暖响应的预估

中国现代冰川面积５９ ４０６ｋｍ２，冰储量约为 ５ ５９０ ｋｍ３，可分为 ３类，即海洋型、亚大陆型和极大陆型，分别占２２％，４６％和３２％，其对全球变暖响应特征有较大差别，自小冰期盛时（１７世纪）以来，西部高山区平均升温 １．３ Ｋ，冰川的萎缩量相当于现代冰川面积的 ２０％，预估２０３０， ２０７０和 ２１００年的升温值分别为 ０．４—１．２， １．２—２．７和 ２．１—４．０ Ｋ，届时冰川面积将分别减少 １２％， ２８％和４５％，其不确定性至２１世纪末介于３０％－６７％．

Fast and Slow Responses of the North Pacific Mode Water and Subtropical Countercurrent to Global Warming

Six coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are em-ployed for examining the full evolution of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) under global warming over 400 years following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The mode water and STCC first show a sharp weakening trend when the radiative forcing increases, but then reverse to a slow strengthening trend of smaller magnitude after the radiative forcing is stablized. As the radiative forcing increases during the 21st century, the ocean warming is surface-intensified and decreases with depth, strengthening the upper ocean's stratification and becoming unfavorable for the mode water formation. Moving southward in the subtropical gyre, the shrinking mode water decelerates the STCC to the south. After the radiative forcing is stabilized in the 2070s, the subsequent warming is greater at the subsurface than at the sea surface, destabilizing the upper ocean and becoming favorable for the mode water formation. As a result, the mode water and STCC recover gradually after the radiative forc-ing is stabilized.

Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center

The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.

Measuring Carbon Dioxide Sink of Betung Bamboo （Dendrocallamus asper （Schult f.） Backer ex Heyne） by Sinusoidal Curves Fitting on Its Daily Photosynthesis Light Response

Planting plant such as Betung bamboo （Dendrocalamus asper （Schult f.） Backer ex Heyne） is one of the best ways for reducing global warming effect. Betung bamboo is giant grass （Poaceae） which has been traditionally used by Indonesian people for construction material since a long time ago. Poaceae family commonly has better carbon sink ability than trees because of its Ca photosynthesis mechanisms, but bamboo sub-family （Bambusoideae） lacks the Ca photosynthetic pathway and anatomy. In the absence of this feature the maximum possible productivity of bamboos is unlikely to greatly exceed that of other bioenergy crops with C3 photosynthesis such as fast growing tree species. This research proposed a sinusoidal equation as a basic equation for plant＇s daily photosynthesis light response curve fitting. The sinusoidal equation was success for Betung bamboo＇s daily photosynthesis light response curve fitting （R2 〉 60%）. It had similar result in estimating carbon sink （82.35 kg/clump/year） compared to those which calculated by annual increment （69.01-107.82 kg/clump/year）. It is better to choose sinusoidal equation than quadratic or cubic Betung bamboo is a good choice to be planted in order to resist the global warming effect because it has superior carbon sink capability （82.35 kg/clump/year） than slow growing tree, and equal to fast growing tree species, besides many other advantages.

Misdiagnosis of Earth climate sensitivity based on energy balance model results

Monckton of Brenchley et al.(Sci Bull60:122–135, 2015)(hereafter called M15) use a simple energy balance model to estimate climate response. They select parameters for this model based on semantic arguments, leading to different results from those obtained in physics-based studies. M15 did not validate their model against observations, but instead created synthetic test data based on subjective assumptions. We show that M15 systematically underestimate warming: since 1990, most years were warmer than their modelled upper limit. During 2000–2010, RMS error and bias are approximately 150 % and 350 % larger than for the CMIP5 median, using either the Berkeley Earth or Cowtan and Way surface temperature data. We show that this poor performance can be explained by a logical flaw in theparameter selection and that selected parameters contradict observational estimates. M15 also conclude that climate has a near-instantaneous response to forcing, implying no net energy imbalance for the Earth. This contributes to their low estimates of future warming and is falsified by Argo float measurements that show continued ocean heating and therefore a sustained energy imbalance. M15's estimates of climate response and future global warming are not consistent with measurements and so cannot be considered credible.