Simulation Analysis of Macroeconomic Policy Orientations' Effects on the Industrial Economy——Based on Dynamic CGE Model

There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.

数字化制造技术在航空液压壳体类零件加工中的应用

通过航空液压控制壳体零件的典型结构特征,基于CATIA/CAM平台,创建了刀具库、刀柄库,以及壳体孔系特征编程模块,将实物资源数字化、有序化,实现资源的共享及零件的快速编程,提升壳体的编程效率。通过创建机床仿真模型,定义全要素仿真要素,实现壳体零件加工的全要素虚拟仿真验证,并通过定制仿真后输出的加工报表,为生产准备提供了BOM清单。逐步将航空液压壳体类零件的加工向“无纸化”加工推进。