五台山生态关联区生态足迹及承载力时空变化

五台山生态关联区的生态安全对保障五台山世界遗产地可持续发展具有重要意义。为了分析五台山生态关联区的生态安全,采用生态足迹模型对2010、2015和2018年生态足迹进行测算分析。结果显示:(1)2010—2018年,五台山生态关联区的人均生态承载力总体稳定在2 hm^(2)/人左右;人均生态足迹从1.202 hm^(2)/人增加到2.655 hm^(2)/人;生态盈亏由1.099 hm^(2)/人的生态盈余演变成-0.411 hm^(2)/人的生态赤字;生态压力指数由0.522增长到1.183。(2)不同类型的生态足迹不均衡,耕地和草地是主要生态足迹因子,滹沱河流域的耕地人均生态足迹明显高于其他区域和类型;生态盈亏变化最大的是化石能源地,其次为耕地,其余4种变化小,总体稳定,轻度生态赤字分布范围明显大于生态盈余范围;生态压力大小为草地>耕地>化石能源地>建设用地>林地>水域。五台山可持续发展面临挑战。

基于TOPSIS和灰色关联投影法的区域碳效率动态综合评价——以泛珠三角为例

为弥补传统碳效率评价偏向绝对量指标或者少数几个指标的单点式评价的不足,选取相对量指标,从经济、人口、福利多个维度并兼顾地区发展实际与公平原则,构建区域碳效率评价指标体系。将TOPSIS法与灰色关联投影分析相结合,并利用时间序列平均算子二次加权以实现对泛珠三角9省(自治区)2011—2020年碳效率的动态综合评价。静态与动态评价研究结果显示:该区域碳效率发展水平存在差异,其中海南省碳效率总体水平较高,为0.530;贵州省碳效率相对较低,为0.162;海南省比贵州省高出227%。福建省碳效率呈上升趋势,由2011年的0.327上升至2020年的0.498,增长了52.3%。研究认为,应该制定差异化减排策略、加大技术经费投入、增强社会福利、引进人才以实现低碳经济发展。

中国金融结构与产业结构的时空演变特征及区制关联分析

基于面板马尔可夫区制转移模型和空间马尔可夫区制转移模型分析了金融结构和产业结构的时空演变特征,并结合中国经济运行现实对两者之间的区制关联展开了检验和分析。结果表明:(1)中国金融结构和产业结构均存在显著的区域非均衡性,这种非均衡性尽管具有较强的惰性,但可以借助区域间的相互作用得到一定程度的改善;(2)金融结构在区制内变动以及跨区制变迁均会带动产业结构发生相似的变化,但当二者均处于低区制时,金融结构市场化难以通过区制关联效应推动产业结构升级;(3)各地区金融结构和产业结构的变动均存在显著的正外部性,本地区相对较高的金融结构或产业结构可以有效带动周边地区的产业结构升级。

无线通信系统异构网络的自动邻区关联方法

主要提出一种宏小区与毫微微小区混合组网的异构无线通信网络,从而设计了一种用于异构无线通信网络中的基站间自动邻区关联的方法,并阐述了具体实施步骤。该方法支持异构网络中的基站自组织功能,基站能够在自动邻区关联的过程中正确地获得邻区基站的ID,从而成功构造邻区关系且无需人工配置,克服了已有方法存在的缺陷。同时,该方法无需修改空口信令,也不会增加空口信令开销。

基于跟踪区关联性的跟踪区列表设计方法

跟踪移动用户同时减少信令开销是通信系统位置管理研究中重要的方面。跟踪区列表是LTE系统中新引入的概念,它由多个跟踪区构成用来减少位置管理信令开销。受生活、工作、学习方面的影响,大部分用户具有固定的移动方式。提出了一种基于跟踪区关联性的跟踪区列表设计方法,它通过从用户历史移动路径中获取各跟踪区之间的关联性并建立各跟踪区的关联表,当跟踪区更新消息发生时,网络获取该消息中提供的上次访问跟踪区和用户当前所在跟踪区结合关联表进行跟踪区列表设计。该方法能够随不同上次访问跟踪区动态分配跟踪区列表,特别适用于大规模网络中。最后运用里斯本城镇网络数据,实验比较了基于跟踪区关联性的跟踪区列表设计方法和rule of thumb设计方法在一整天的信令开销。结果显示该方法在减少位置管理信令开销方面性能至少提升了11.5%。

井陉县传统村落片区保护规划探析

在新型城镇化背景下，为了促进传统村落的保护与发展，本文以井陉县传统村落片区为研究对象，通过实地调研，发掘传统村落片区的价值特色，具体从保护对象以及保护蘸略等方面进行了探析。以期构建一种以宏观区域层面为主导的保护发展模式，形成区域传统村落体系，为我国传统村落保护规划研究提供了参考与借鉴。

基于目标预测值模糊化的模糊数据关联算法

对传统模糊数据关联算法进行了分析,针对其利用最大隶属值赋值原则对目标进行跟踪时可能存在误跟或跟错的情况,提出了基于目标预测值模糊化的模糊数据关联算法。首先将预测航迹进行距离模糊化,建立联合关联区并舍去关联区以外的点迹,降低模糊数据关联分割矩阵的维数;然后对分割矩阵运用整体最优原则,将问题转化为0-1规划问题,实现数据的模糊关联;最后对算法进行仿真,结果表明:采用新算法能有效改进传统算法的缺陷,提高数据关联的可靠度。

海绵城市理论下的山地城市水系规划路径探索

山地城市水系在资源特色、空间特征、生态服务、自然灾害等方面具有异于平原城市的特性,也因此带来系统破碎、用地割裂、生态防护不足等问题。山地城市水系规划对促进山地"海绵城市"建设具有重要的意义。文章针对山地城市水系特征及建设面临的问题,从城市规划区、小流域、河段三个空间尺度提出山地城市水系规划方法,探索山地城市水系在系统组织、土地利用和生态建设中的规划路径。

NOVEL GENERALIZED GREY INCIDENCE MODEL BASED ON INTERVAL GREY NUMBERS

To extend the traditional generalized grey incidence model, a novel grey incidence model based on inter- val grey numbers is constructed. Considering the numerical information of indexes cannot be accurately obtained and can be defined as interval grey numbers, the interval grey numbers are defined as standard interval grey num- bers which are split in white part and grey part. The absolute degree of incidence and relative degree of incidence based on the interval grey numbers are constructed and their arithmetic are given. Finally, an example about commercial aircraft index selection illuminates the effectiveness of the model. The results show that the model can sort indexes better and can extend the grey incidence models significantly.

中国证券市场波动的区制关联性

应用单变量和二元向量SW-ARCH 模型,本文发现我国证券市场收益率波动具有明显的“区制转移”特征,可以将其分为“高波动”和“低波动”两个区制。在“高波动区制”下,沪深两市间具有明显的波动“溢出”和“传染”特征,市场整体风险强;相反,在“低波动区制”下,市场间主要表现“低系统风险”特征,负相关的波动关联性使证券市场具有较强的风险分散功能和较高的资金配置效率。

当今凝聚态物理研究的主要几个分支及研究进展

本文通过对凝聚态物理固体电子论中的关联区、宏观量子态、介观物理与纳米结构和软物质物理学这几个分支研究的一些内容还有对当今凝聚态物理研究的一些现象及其理论方法和已经取得的一些成就连同它们在器件和材料方面产生的作用和对未来影响的阐述,给出了这一基础学科对科学技术的影响和贡献,表明了凝聚态物理对现代科技的作用。

金融稳定与经济增长的区制关联性:2002-2014

本文基于中国2002-2014年的季度数据,利用马尔可夫区制转换模型对金融稳定与经济增长的区制关联性进行实证研究。结果表明,随着经济环境的变化,金融稳定与经济增长的关系呈现出显著的区制转换特征。具体而言:在样本考察期内,经济增长对金融稳定的影响主要体现为前者对后者的抑制作用,而在经济平稳增长时期和经济复苏时期,经济增长有利于促进金融稳定;在经济复苏时期,金融稳定对经济增长具有较为显著的正向影响,而当经济处于持续高速增长时期和危机时期,金融稳定对经济增长具有负向影响。此外,相较于金融稳定对经济增长的影响,经济增长对金融稳定的影响强度更大、持续时间更长。

气质维度及其相应运动员选材中的基因筛选

人类气质没有好坏之分,可是气质中诸如猎奇行为和伤害逃避行为维度与多巴胺受体4(D4DR)和血清素转运关联启动区(5-HTTLPR)基因的功能性多态表现有密切相关联。目前,有关气质不同维度模型与基因多肽性关联的报道很多,也有对不少问题缺乏合理解释而受到责难的,基于此,提出寻找气质和个性的候选基因为运动员选材提供依据的假设。

我国财政政策的非对称效应

紧缩性财政政策对经济的抑制作用小于扩张性财政政策对经济的刺激作用,造成这种非对称效应的原因是人们预期的非对称性、挤出效应的非对称性、价格调整和政府决策的非对称性。在经济增长波动率较高的阶段应使用积极的财政政策,但不宜长期实施;在经济增长波动率较低的阶段,应使用稳健性财政政策。现阶段,我国应该优先考虑实施稳健积极的财政政策。

Ecological Species Groups and Interspecific Association of Dominant Tree Species in Daiyun Mountain National Nature Reserve

Abstract： Research on the ecological species groups and interspecific association of plant species are helpful to discover species coexistence processes and mechanisms, and to more fully understand plant community structure, function, and its taxonomy. However, little is known about the ecological species groups （ESG） and the interspecific association of dominant species in Daiyun Mountain National Nature Reserve of Fujian Province, China. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to explore the ESG using maximal tree, and to analyze interspecific associations of 32 dominant species selected from lo2 sample plots using the chi-square test. The results show that： （1） 32 dominant species have a significant overall positive interspecific association, which indicates that the natural forest in Daiyun Mountain National Nature Reserve is stable, （a） The species pairs with weak associations, non-associations and positive associations account for lo.88%, 29.64% and 59.48% of the total 496 species pairs respectively, which suggests that the population distributions of the dominant species investigated are relatively independent, （3） The following species pairs may be useful for practical application, 〈Pinus taiwanensis, Rhododendron farrerae〉, 〈Castanopsis carlesii, Altingia chinensis〉, 〈C. carlesii, Castanopsis fargesii〉, 〈Castanopsis eyrei, C. fargesii〉, 〈P. taiwanensis, Fagus lucida〉 , 〈Machilus thunbergii, Castanopsis nigrescens〉, and （4） The results of clustering analysis based on the maximal tree method indicates that the 32 dominant species can be divided into 3 ESGs when A at o.6o, that is ESG I {Pinus massoniana, Cunning hamia lanceolata}, ESG II {P. taiwanensis, R. farrerae, Enkianthus quinqueflorus}, ESG III {C. carlesii, A. chinensis, C. eyrei, Castanopsis fabri, C. fargesii, Schima superba, Machilus thunbergii, Rhododendron latoueheae}. The results may be used for the selection of afforestation tree species in South China Forest Areas and guide the natural management of plantations.

Combining TOPSIS and GRA for supplier selection problem with interval numbers

Supplier selection can be regarded as a typical multiple attribute decision-making problem. In real-world situation, the values of the alternative attributes and their weights are always being nondeterministic, and as a result of this, the values are considered interval numbers. In addition, the common approach to measure the similarity between alternatives through their distance suffers from some minor shortcomings. To address these problems, this study develops a novel hybrid decision-making method by combining the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution （TOPSIS） with grey relational analysis （GRA） for supplier selection with interval numbers. By introducing the intervals theory, the extensions of Euclidean distance and grey relational grade are defined. And then a new comprehensive closeness coefficient is constituted for supplier alternatives evaluation based on the interval Euclidean distance and the interval grey relational grade, which could indicate the distance-based similarity and the shape-based similarity simultaneously. A mtmerical example is taken to validate the flexibility of the proposed method, and result shows that this method can tackle the uncertainty in real-world supplier selection and also help decision makers to effectively select optimal suppliers.

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and China's implementation

The concept of sustainable development has experienced great development and change at different levels of theoretical connotation and practical implementation since 1960 s and 1970 s when it was first proposed. People's understanding of the relationship between economy,society, and environment has been continuously deepened over the years. When it came to the end of 2015, it is necessary to examine the results of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals on sustainable development, and at the same time, the post-2015 framework and guidance on sustainable development at the global level were to be made, including the ideas, action plans, key areas that would guide the global sustainable development. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has developed a 5P theoretical framework of being peoplecentered, global environmental security, sustained economic prosperity, social justice and harmony and partnership promotion, including a political declaration, 17 overarching goals and 169 specific targets, specific ways of implementation, as well as the follow-up. It is the road map to achieve global sustainable development and meet the requirements of the millennium development goals. This paper summarizes the understanding of the concept of sustainable development from its origin, its significant development, to the proposition and development of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and its strategic impact on China.

Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model

In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.

Spatial Patterns of Irrigation Water Withdrawals in China and Implications for Water Saving

By considering numerical features, spatial variation, and spatial association, the spatial patterns of China's irrigation water withdrawals in 2001 and 2010 were explored at the regional, provincial, and prefectural scales. In addition, an overlay analysis was used to develop specific water-saving guidance for areas under different levels of water stress and with different degrees of irrigation water withdrawals. It was found that at the regional scale, irrigation water withdrawals were highest in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River region in both years, while at the provincial scale, the largest irrigation water withdrawals occurred in Xinjiang. During 2001–2010, the total of irrigation water withdrawals decreased; however, in the Northeast region, especially in Heilongjiang Province, it experienced a dramatic increase. The spatial variation was largest at the prefectural scale, with an apparent effect. The spatial association was globally negative at the provincial scale, and Xinjiang was the only significant high-low outlier. In contrast, the association displayed a significant positive relationship at the prefectural scale, and several clusters and outliers were detected. Finally, it was found that the water stress in the northern part of China worsened and water-saving irrigation techniques urgently need to be applied in the Northeast region, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain region, and Gansu-Xinjiang region. This study verified that a multi-scale and aspect analysis of the spatial patterns of irrigation water withdrawals were essential and provided water-saving advice for different areas.

Mountain ground movement prediction caused by mining based on BP-neural network

Six main influencing factors： slope, aspect, distance, angle, angle of coal seam, and the ratio of depth and thickness, were selected by Grey correlation theory and Grey relational analysis procedure programmed by the MATLAB software package to select the surface movement and deformation parameters. On this basis, the paper built a BP neural network model that takes the six main influencing factors as input data and corresponding value of ground subsidence as output data. Ground subsidence of the 3406 mining face in Haoyu Coal was predicted by the trained BP neural network. By comparing the prediction and the practices, the research shows that it is feasible to use the 13P neural network to predict mountain mining subsidence.