水资源关键脆弱性辨识及适应性管理研究进展

论述了水资源脆弱性、适应性的概念及其与适应性管理的联系,从流域层面初步辨识了我国各流域水资源的关键脆弱性,并介绍了国内外研究水资源脆弱性的进展情况,归纳了流域层面针对关键脆弱性的适应性管理对策。结果表明:水资源关键脆弱性具有多样化,既包括旱涝灾害及冰川快速消融等的自然脆弱性,又包括供需关系发生变化导致的河道断流、生态缺水、地下水超采等脆弱性问题;关键脆弱性的应对也呈现多样化,各流域层面的应对措施和关注重点也存在差异。

基于改进图注意力网络的电力系统脆弱性关键环节辨识

随着电网的扩大与新能源比例的增加,电网的不确定性和随机性因素增加,危及系统安全运行,寻找出电网中的脆弱性关键环节来保障电网运行时的可靠性就显得尤为重要。针对当前传统电网脆弱性关键环节辨别方法识别速度慢、难以满足电网实际运行要求的问题,提出了基于改进图注意力网络算法(improved graph attention network,IGAT)的电网脆弱性关键环节辨识方法。首先,结合复杂网络理论和电网实际运行数据建立评价指标集。其次,利用IGAT挖掘出电网运行时的各项指标与脆弱性关键环节之间的映射关系,建立脆弱性关键环节辨识模型,并且考虑到训练准确性和效率等需求,对原始的图注意力网络进行优化。再次,通过仿真得到原始数据集,对辨识模型进行训练、验证和测试。最后,利用所述模型应用于改进的IEEE 30节点系统和实际电网中,结果表明所提方法具有可行性,且准确性和速度优于传统方法,有一定的工程利用价值。

Research on large-scale cascading failure of power systems using synergistic effect

This paper discusses the primary causes from the point of synergistic effects to improve power system vulnerability in the power system planning and safety operation. Based on the vulnerability conception in the complex network theory the vulnerability of the power system can be evaluated by the minimum load loss rate when considering power supply ability.Consequently according to the synergistic effect theory the critical line of the power system is defined by its influence on failure set vulnerability in N-k contingencies.The cascading failure modes are proposed based on the criterion whether the acceptable load curtailment level is below a preset value.Significant conclusions are revealed by results of IEEE 39 case analysis weak points of power networks and heavy load condition are the main causes of large-scale cascading failures damaging synergistic effects can result in partial failure developed into large-scale cascading failures vulnerable lines of power systems can directly lead the partial failure to deteriorate into a large blackout while less vulnerable lines can cause a large-scale cascading failure.

OCTAVE风险评估方法在电子政务外网的应用

介绍一种基于OCTAVE的信息安全风险评估方法,包含创建基于资产的威胁轮廓、确定基础设施漏洞、制订安全战略和环节计划3个阶段,阐明该方法的8个具体过程.通过与NIST方法对比,凸显该方法自主进行、可操作性强的优势.最后,结合电子政务外网系统特点,详细描述OCTAVE方法在电子政务外网系统的风险评估中的应用.创建基于资产的威胁轮廓,针对基础设施漏洞制定安全策略和环节计划.包括组建合理的安全管理机构、严格执行管理制度和背景调查规定及建立严格的系统防护措施.