Potential sandy coast erosion and socio-economic impacts under sea level rise scenarios as well as socio-economic pathways were assessed in Liaodong Bay.Results show that sea level is projected to rise by 20-43 cm in ...Potential sandy coast erosion and socio-economic impacts under sea level rise scenarios as well as socio-economic pathways were assessed in Liaodong Bay.Results show that sea level is projected to rise by 20-43 cm in Liaodong Bay by 2100.And dry land loss increases in all sea level rise scenarios,with the maximum loss of 32.1 km2 in 2100 under RCP8.5.Coastal erosion results in forced migration,and the forced migration is higher under SSP3 than other pathways due to its higher population growth rate,reaching the highest of 3.1×10^4 under SSP3/RCP8.5 in 2100.Moreover,the differences of forced migration among all scenarios increas after 2050,and the migration increasing rates tend to decrease under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5.The maximum economic loss due to coastal erosion will reach 8.05 billion yuan under SSP5/RCP8.5 in 2100,in which land loss cost is two order less than migration cost,and the share of total erosion-induced economic loss in local GDP varies from 1.12‰ to 4.76‰ under all scenarios,which is an important indicator to draw local government's attention to take measures such as beach nourishment,especially for tourist beaches.Optimally,it is recommended by cost-benefit analysis to carry out nourishment mainly on beaches with high value,while there is no need for nourishment in areas where erosion impacts are negligible.展开更多
基金supported by the NMDIS Youth Fund Study on the contribution rate of sea level rise to coastal erosion of typical coastal segments(2018).
文摘Potential sandy coast erosion and socio-economic impacts under sea level rise scenarios as well as socio-economic pathways were assessed in Liaodong Bay.Results show that sea level is projected to rise by 20-43 cm in Liaodong Bay by 2100.And dry land loss increases in all sea level rise scenarios,with the maximum loss of 32.1 km2 in 2100 under RCP8.5.Coastal erosion results in forced migration,and the forced migration is higher under SSP3 than other pathways due to its higher population growth rate,reaching the highest of 3.1×10^4 under SSP3/RCP8.5 in 2100.Moreover,the differences of forced migration among all scenarios increas after 2050,and the migration increasing rates tend to decrease under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5.The maximum economic loss due to coastal erosion will reach 8.05 billion yuan under SSP5/RCP8.5 in 2100,in which land loss cost is two order less than migration cost,and the share of total erosion-induced economic loss in local GDP varies from 1.12‰ to 4.76‰ under all scenarios,which is an important indicator to draw local government's attention to take measures such as beach nourishment,especially for tourist beaches.Optimally,it is recommended by cost-benefit analysis to carry out nourishment mainly on beaches with high value,while there is no need for nourishment in areas where erosion impacts are negligible.
