生育补贴、养老金支付与生育率变动

本文构建了包含生育补贴的世代交叠模型,分析了生育补贴政策实施以及不同养老金支付模式对生育率、养老金支付能力以及储蓄率等宏观经济变量的影响,从而为财政支出结构和生育及养老的优化给出相关的解决方案。研究发现:在新古典增长理论框架下,无论现收现付制养老保障制度还是统筹制养老保障制度,养育成本的提高和预期寿命的延长均会通过抑制生育率下降的渠道使得经济增长放缓;生育补贴的支持力度越大越能提高生育率,进而促进经济增长。总的来说,统筹制养老保障下各项经济变量具有优势,这与我国推行统筹制养老保障制度的目标相一致。

Effects of the New Two-child Policy On Family Old-age Security

This paper analyzes the current situation of the aging population and low fertility rate.lt is found that the aging process is accelerated, the population growth potential is decreased, and the elderly dependency ratio is higher.Secondly, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the new two-child policy on family pension security from three aspects： population policy, family support and social security.There are two aspects of the effects, the positive effects are：improve fertility, reduce elderly dependency ratio, relieve population aging,enhance the family development： the negative effects are： tremendous pressure on public resources, further inequality in birth right, heavy economic pressure on the family.At last. this paper puts forward the constructive countermeasures against the problems of the policy and the was out of the family old-age security.