论内在价值模型的构建与应用

内在价值模型的建立,基本解决了对股票价值合理有效评价的问题,为理性投资者提高回报率、降低风险提供更为准确的投资依据,从而推动完善证券市场上资本的合理定价机制,使中国股市的资源配置功能发挥效力,促进中国证券市场走向成熟化、效率化。

上市公司内在价值评估模型探索

本文首先分析我国股市有利于推行价值投资理念的内外部因素,然后以市场上主流的价值评估模型为基础,结合国内股市现状,基于新的会计准则构建适合中国股市的上市公司内在价值评估模型,最后选取沪市4家上市公司进行实证探索。结果表明:本文构建的模型对沪市A股上市公司内在价值的评估结果符合现实情况,有一定的合理性;同时发现该模型对蓝筹股的评估结果与其股价的关联度比较高,而对新股和中小盘股的评估结果与其股价的关联度弱一点。这可能与新股和中小盘股的市场炒作气氛浓郁,股价波动比较大有关系。

上市公司股票的内在价值及其成长性探讨

通过对传统的股票内在价值模型的评价 ,指出了它们的不足 ,从而提出了基于上市公司内在价值的改进评价模型 ,说明其能更好地解释在知识经济时代的情形 ,并对上市公司的成长性进行了研究 ,建立了评价上市公司成长性的层次分析法模型。理论和实际的分析表明 ,这种分析方法具有较高的应用价值。

EVA based model to estimate the Chinese listed company’s intrinsic value

This article is based on traditionally intrinsic value assessment model. We employed the assumption on the differences in future increase rates of companies, taking into account of the expected Economic Value Added (EVA) discount and the capital investment, to establish a high increase model, a two-stage EVA discount model and a three-stage EVA discount model for the intrinsic value assessment. Those models eliminate the great fluctuation of free cash flow in calculating the capital expenditure by setting aside the cash flow of the company’s investment in the year and considering only the capital cost. This method needs only to assess the EVA flow in different year in probing the intrinsic value of a company, thus give more consistent conclusion than conventional methods.