鄂尔多斯:居民储蓄与区域生产总值相关性分析

本文应用计量经济学对鄂尔多斯城乡居民1986-2005年的储蓄数据及区域内生产总值数据进行分析,运用最小二乘估计的方法分析鄂尔多斯居民储蓄与区域内生产总值的关系,研究鄂尔多斯居民储蓄的现状、特征及其与区域内生产总值之间的相互影响关系。

应用预测模型对云南省2020年生产总值的预测

根据云南省历年来的年鉴数据分析,用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行预测,用得出的函数预测出2020年的数据。根据全面建成小康社会的要求:省内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番。经计算分析得出2020年云南省省内生产总值将比2010年翻一番。

Ecological Footprint and Major Driving Forces in West Jilin Province, Northeast China

The environmental impact caused by local people （ecological footprint of consumption, EFc） and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens （ecological footprint of production, EFp） in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint （EF） method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population （P）, GDP per capita （A1）, quadratic term of GDP per capita （A2）, urbanization （Tα1）, and quadratic term of urbanization （Ta2） were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Tα2 and Tα1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Tα2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF （both EFc and EFp）, but did between Tα2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption.

Regional Difference in Social Capital and Its Impact on Regional Economic Growth in China

Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development.China is a country with high stocks of social capital.Using several different indicators of social capital,this study tries to research the regional disparities in social capital and the influence of social capital on economic growth of China in 1978-2004.Measuring social capital with indicators of associations,charities and blood donation rates,this study finds significant regional disparities in social capital at provincial level in China.Those indicators for social capital are highly correlated with regional economic performance.Statistical analysis shows that social capital has a significant and positive effect on a long-term provincial economic growth.This relationship exists after controlling policy,macro location factors,and per capita GDP in the initial year.The empirical findings indicate that institutions,culture and social relations are critical for regional development in China.Therefore,the creation and support of social capital should be paid more attention to when making regional policy.

Spatial Pattern Evolution and Casual Analysis of County Level Economy in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, China

In order to evaluate whether or not the county units′ economy in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(Chang-Zhu-Tan) Urban Agglomeration was growing as expected, this study analyzed the spatial economy pattern at county-level by using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) method. In this process, the global Moran′s I and local Getis-Ord G*i indexes were employed to analyze indicators including per capita GDP and three industrials(i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary industry) from 2000 to 2010. The results show that: 1) the county units′ economy in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration has exhibited a strong spatial autocorrelation and an accelerated integration trend since 2008(Moran′ s I increased from 0.26 to 0.56); 2) there is a significant difference in economy development between the northern and southern county units in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration: the hotspot zone with high economic level was formed among the northern county units whereas the coldspot zone with low economic level was located in the southern areas. This difference was caused primarily by the increasingly prominent economic radiation effect of Changsha ′upheaval′; 3) town density, secondary industry, and the integration policy are the major contributors driving the evolution of the spatial economy pattern in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration.

Urban Expansion and Its Influencing Factors in Natural Wetland Distribution Area in Fuzhou City,China

This paper principally focuses on land use dynamics,urban expansion and underlying driving forces in the Natural Wetland Distribution Area(NWDA)of Fuzhou City in the southeastern China.Based on time series Landsat TM/ETM+imageries and historical data,relationships between urban land expansion and its influencing factors from 1989 to 2009 were analyzed by using an integrated approach of remote sensing(RS)and geographic information system(GIS)techniques.The results showed that built-up land increased from 151.16 km2in 1989 to 383.76 km 2in 2009. Approximately 64.25%of the newly emerging built-up land was converted from cropland(29.47%),forest and shrub (25.78%),water(3.73%),wetland(4.61%),and bare land(0.66%)during 1989 and 2009.With a remarkable decrease in cropland,the proportion of non-agricultural population increased by 23.6%.Moreover,rapid development of infrastructures,facilities,industrial parks,and urban and rural settlements along the Minjiang River resulted in the eastward and southward expansion of built-up land.Additionally,the growth pattern of built-up land in the NWDA is highly correlated with socio-economic factors,including the gross domestic product(GDP),GDP per capita,and structure of industry.As a result,the observed environmental degradation such as loss of cropland and wetland due to heavy pressure of rapid urbanization have greatly impaired the carrying capacity of city.Thus,in addition to scientific and rational policies towards minimizing the adverse effects of urbanization,coordination between the administrative agencies should be urgently strengthened to balance the conflicts between urban development and ecological conservation to make sure the sustainable land use.

An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways

China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

EVALUATION OF ECOLOGICAL SERVICES OF JILIN PROVINCE, NORTHEAST CHINA

The main purpose of this study is to give evaluation of ecological services of Jilin Province, Northeast China. To take this value into decision-making and GDP accounting system is considered to be one of the economic solutions for ecological problems. The evaluation is based on the methods proposed by COSTANZA et al., and some modifications about unit value of forest and cropland system were made according to the real characters of ecosystem, climate, natural conditions etc., in Jilin Province. Total value of ecosystem services is about 554.404x10(9) yuan(RMB)/a, which is about 4.9 times of GDP of the corresponding period. The results of this study could be used as a fundamental work for the construction of ecological province, which was carried out from 2001, and could provide ecological information for decision-making. Furthermore, the necessities for the further studies on the evaluation of ecological services and natural capital were discussed.

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO_2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households.

Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Suzhou City, China

There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution, using incomplete financial indicator, etc. This article, taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province, China as a case, builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale, structure and institution. Three original indicators of PRIVY (private investment/aggregate investment), DEPTH (aggregate loan/GDP) and FDIVG (FDI/GDP) are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach. Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou. Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth, while economic growth is not the reason for FD, because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the ″supply-leading″ period. In terms of Suzhou experiences, the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment, improve the institutional environment, and establish the reasonable financial structure. So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.

Economic Valuation of Health Impact of PM_(10) Pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006

In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM 10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortality as the main outcome.Based on the literature review,this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts.It concludes that nearly 30%of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM 10 pollution,and that the economic cost equals 0.8%-1.2%of the city's GDP over the same period.This is lower than the results of previous studies,but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city's air pollution problem.

Evaluation of water resources conserved by forests in the Hani rice terraces system of Honghe County,Yunnan,China：an application of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

The Hani Rice Terraces System, based on gravity-flow irrigation, is one of the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS) pilot sites selected by FAO in 2010. The water resource plays an important role in the sustainable development of this system. The value of water conserved by the forest is influenced by natural, economic and social factors. In this paper, the water quality, per capita water resources, per capita GDP and population density are chosen as indices to construct an index system for a comprehensive evaluation of water resources value. The weights of these indices are 0.443, 0.31, 0.141 and 0.106 respectively, which are determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method. The water resources value has been assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the water resources value in the Hani Rice Terraces System is 4.25 RMB/m^3. Evaluating the value of water resources in the Hani Rice Terraces System can provide a reference for ecological compensation, for raising public awareness of the importance of protecting the system, and ultimately achieving its sustainable development.

Divisia Decomposition Method and Its Application to Changes of Net Oil Import Intensity

The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.

Relationships Between River Water Quality and Landscape Factors in Haihe River Basin, China: Implications for Environmental Management

River water plays a key role in human health, and in social and economic development, and is often affected by both natural factors and human activities. An in-depth understanding of the role of these factors can help in developing an effective catchment management strategy to protect precious water resources. This study analyzed river water quality, patterns of terrestrial and riparian ecosystems, intensity of agricultural activities, industrial structure, and spatial distribution of pollutant emissions in the Haihe River Basin in China for the year of 2010, identifying the variables that have the greatest impact on river water quality. The area percentage of farmland in study area, the percentage of natural vegetation cover in the 1000-m riparian zone, rural population density, industrial Gross Domestic Product(GDP)/km^2, and industrial amino nitrogen emissions were all significantly correlated with river water quality(P < 0.05). Farming had the largest impact on river water quality, explaining 43.0% of the water quality variance, followed by the coverage of natural vegetation in the 1000-m riparian zone, which explained 36.2% of the water quality variance. Industrial amino nitrogen emissions intensity and rural population density explained 31.6% and 31.4% of the water quality variance, respectively, while industrial GDP/km^2 explained 26.6%. Together, these five indicators explained 67.3% of the total variance in water quality. Consequently, water environmental management of the Haihe River Basin should focus on adjusting agricultural activities, conserving riparian vegetation, and reducing industrial pollutant emissions by optimizing industrial structure. The results demonstrate how human activities drive the spatial pattern changes of river water quality, and they can provide reference for developing land use guidelines and for prioritizing management practices to maintain stream water quality in a large river basin.

A Study of Resource Curse Effect of Chinese Provinces Based on Human Developing Index

Traditional opinion considers that natural resources play an important positive role in economic development, while resource curse theory holds that natural resources usually obstruct economic increase. This debate needs further exploration. In most of empirical studies on resource curse theory, the economic development of an area is mainly evaluated by the Gross Domestic Product(GDP), however, the social and cultural contents of economic development are seldom considered. Thus, the Human Developing Index(HDI) was chosen to describe the comprehensive developing situation of an area in our study. Based on the panel data from the year of 2000 to 2011, the relationship between Human Developing Index and resource exploitation degree(RED) of 30 provinces in China(Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao were not included because of the restriction of data acquisition) was investigated by correlation coefficient analysis and regression analysis. We found that resource curse did exist over the entire country and its effect on 30 provinces were not exactly the same. According to the effects of resource curse, these provinces could be classified into four types: no resource curse provinces, slight resource curse provinces, severe resource curse provinces, and extreme resource curse provinces. Testing from two short time periods 2000–2005, and 2006–2011, the resource curse effect was not prominent. However, testing from the entire period of 2000–2011, the effect was obvious among each province.

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China's economy:in a short-term,China's GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.

An International Comparative Analysis on China's Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

In this paper,the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries.Then,the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change,so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth.This study concludes that:First,there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries.With the convergence in per capita GDP gap,the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge,and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former,i.e.if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%,the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%.Second,the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure,the rising of energy prices,the advances of technology,and the expansion of investment in fixed assets,and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI.Third,the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment,energy prices,and technological progress between China and eight developed countries,yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI,and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure.Fourth,the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap,whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors,such as difference in investment,technology,and the competition mechanism of prices,which can determine the difference in economic growth,can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.

How China Can Avoid the ＂MiddleIncome Trap＂

In 2010, China entered what the World Development Bank Report of 2010 labeled as the upper-middle-income threshold with a GDP per capita of $4,396. China s current momentum will likely carry it through sustained growth in the foreseeable future, but it remains unsure whether China will escape the middle-income trap and grow into a high-income country. The answer lies in China＇s ability to restructure its industrial and social structure.