To study seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) in detail,Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and Extended Associate Pattern Analysis (EAPA) are jointly adopted with daily sea ...To study seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) in detail,Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and Extended Associate Pattern Analysis (EAPA) are jointly adopted with daily sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH)datasets covering 1126 days from American Navy Experimental Real-Time East Asian Seas Ocean Nowcast System in the present paper. Results show that the first and second REOFs of SST in the southern East China Sea(SECS) account for 50,8% and 39.8% of the total variance. The surface TWC contains persistent (multi-year mean), seasonal and intraseasonal components. The persistent one mainly inosculates with the Kuroshio but the seasonal and intraseasonal ones are usually active only on the continental shelf. Its persistent component is produced by inertial flow of the Kuroshio, however its seasonal and intraseasonal ones seems coming from seasonal and intraseasonal oscillations of monsoon force. The seasonal one reaches its maximum in late summer,lasting about four months and the intraseasonal one takes place at any seasons, lasting more than 40 days.展开更多
This work investigates the boreal-summer intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB)during 1979–2016,based on daily Climate Prediction Center global prec...This work investigates the boreal-summer intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB)during 1979–2016,based on daily Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data.The ISV of the summer monsoon rainfall over the LYRB is mainly dominated by the lower-frequency 12–20-day variability and the higher-frequency 8–12-day variability.The lower-frequency variability is found to be related to the northwestwardpropagating quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)over the western North Pacific spanning the South China Sea(SCS)and Philippine Sea,while the higher-frequency variability is related to the southeastward propagating midlatitude wave train(MLWT).Moreover,not each active QBWO(MLWT)in the SCS(East Asia)can generate ISV components of the precipitation anomaly over the LYRB.The QBWO can change the rainfall significantly with the modulation of mean state precipitation,while the quasi-11-day mode mainly depends on the intensity of the MLWT rather than the mean precipitation change.These findings should enrich our understanding of the ISV of the East Asian summer monsoon and improve its predictability.展开更多
The gridded sea level anomaly(SLA) data-set provided by AVISO is used to track the propagation of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) region. The large root mean square of intraseasonal S...The gridded sea level anomaly(SLA) data-set provided by AVISO is used to track the propagation of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) region. The large root mean square of intraseasonal SLA along the Sumatra and Java coast is closely related to the propagation of intraseasonal Kelvin waves that derive from the equatorial Indian Ocean. These Kelvin waves are further found to propagate following different pathways at the Lombok Strait. Pathway A propagates eastward throughout the Sumba Strait and Savu Sea to reach the Ombai Strait. Pathway B penetrates into Lombok and propagates northward to reach the Makassar Strait. Pathway C propagates southeastward along the southwest coast of the Sumba Island. The equatorial Kelvin waves take around 15 days to travel from the equatorial Indian Ocean to Lombok Strait, and around 5 days to penetrate into the Makassar and Ombai straits. The Kelvin wave-induced SLA persists in the ITF region for an additional 5 days and then diminishes subsequently. The phase speeds of these intraseasonal Kelvin waves along Pathways A, B, and C are 1.91–2.86, 1.69, and 1.96 m s^-1,respectively—in agreement with the first two baroclinic modes of Kelvin waves.展开更多
Weak stratospheric polar vortex(WPV)events during winter months were investigated.WPV events were identified as being weakest in December,accompanied by the most dramatic increase in geopotential height over the polar...Weak stratospheric polar vortex(WPV)events during winter months were investigated.WPV events were identified as being weakest in December,accompanied by the most dramatic increase in geopotential height over the polar region.After the onset of a December WPV event,the dynamic processes influencing Eurasian temperature can be split into two separate periods.Period I(lag of 0-25 days)is referred to as the stratosphere-troposphere interactions period,as it is mainly characterized by stratospheric signals propagating downwards.In Period I,a stratospheric negative Northern Annular Mode(NAM)pattern associated with the WPV propagates downwards,inducing a negative NAM in the troposphere.The anomalous low centers over the Mediterranean and North Pacific bring cold advection to northern Eurasia,resulting in a north-cold-south-warm dipole pattern over Eurasia.The zero line between negative and positive temperature anomalies moves southwards during days 5-20.Stratospheric cold anomalies at midlatitudes propagate downwards to high latitudes in the troposphere and contribute to the dipole structure.During PeriodⅡ(lag of 25-40 days),as downward signals from the stratosphere have vanished,the dynamic processes mainly take place within the troposphere.Specifically,a wave train is initiated from the North Atlantic region to northern Europe.The propagation of wave activity flux intensifies a cyclonic anomaly over northern Europe,which brings cold advection to Scandinavia and warm advection to central Asia.Therefore,a northwest-cold-southeast-warm dipole structure occupies Eurasia and migrates southeastwards during this period.展开更多
This paper focuses on the impacts of convective momentum transport(CMT) on simulations of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TIO) in SAMIL. Two sets of experiments are performed, which give different reality of th...This paper focuses on the impacts of convective momentum transport(CMT) on simulations of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TIO) in SAMIL. Two sets of experiments are performed, which give different reality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO). The Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme is used for all experiments. It is found that simulations of the TIO can be influenced by CMT, and the impacts on the simulated TIO depend on the model capability in simulating the MJO. CMT tends to have large influences to the model that can simulate the eastward propagation of the MJO. CMT can further influence the long-term mean of zonal wind and its vertical shear. Zonal wind suffers from easterlies biases at low level and westerlies biases at upper level when CMT is introduced. Such easterlies biases at low level reduce the reality of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation. When CMT is introduced in the model, MJO signals disappear but the model's mean state improves. Therefore, a more appropriate way is needed to introduce CMT to the model to balance the simulated mean state and TIO signals.展开更多
This study evaluates the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG,version 3(GAMIL3),in simulating the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO),based on the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison ...This study evaluates the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG,version 3(GAMIL3),in simulating the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO),based on the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)simulation.Results show that GAMIL3 reasonably captures the main features of the MJO,such as the eastward-propagating signal in the MJO frequency band,the symmetric and asymmetric structures of the MJO,several convectively coupled equatorial waves,and the MJO life cycle.However,GAMIL3 underestimates the MJO amplitude,especially for outgoing longwave radiation,as do most CMIP5 models,and simulates slow eastward propagation.展开更多
The performances of CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in simulating the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in El Nino decaying summers are examined in this study. Results show that m...The performances of CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in simulating the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in El Nino decaying summers are examined in this study. Results show that most models can reproduce the spatial pattern of both climatological and anomalous circulation associated with the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers. Most CMIP5 AGCMs can capture the westward shift of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers compared with the climatological location. With respect to the sub-seasonal variation of the WNPSH, the performances of these AGCMs in reproducing the northward jump of the WNPSH are better than simulating the eastward retreat of the WNPSH from July to August. Twenty-one out of twenty-two (20 out of 22) models can reasonably reproduce the northward jump of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers (climatology), while only 7 out of 22 (8 out of 22) AGCMs can reasonably reproduce the eastward retreat of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers (climatology). In addition, there is a close connection between the climatological WNPSH location bias and that in El Nino decaying summers.展开更多
A 30-year hindcast was performed using version 4.1 of the IAP AGCM(IAP AGCM4.1), and its potential predictability of the MJO was then evaluated. The results showed that the potential predictability of the MJO is 13 ...A 30-year hindcast was performed using version 4.1 of the IAP AGCM(IAP AGCM4.1), and its potential predictability of the MJO was then evaluated. The results showed that the potential predictability of the MJO is 13 and 24 days, evaluated using the signal-to-error ratio method based on a single member and the ensemble mean, respectively. However, the MJO prediction skill is only9 and 10 days using the two methods mentioned above. It was further found that the potential predictability and prediction skill depend on the MJO amplitude in the initial conditions. Prediction initiated from conditions with a strong MJO amplitude tends to be more skillful. Together with the results of other measures, the current MJO prediction ability of IAP AGCM4.1 is around 10 days, which is much lower than other climate prediction systems. Furthermore, the smaller difference between the MJO predictability and prediction skill evaluated by a single member and the ensemble mean methods could be ascribed to the relatively smaller size of the ensemble member of the model.Therefore, considerable effort should be made to improve MJO prediction in IAP AGCM4.1 through application of a reasonable model initialization and ensemble forecast strategy.展开更多
The association of typhoon tracks over the western Pacific with the low-frequency wind-field pattern of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation at 850 hPa is further studied by using observational data anal...The association of typhoon tracks over the western Pacific with the low-frequency wind-field pattern of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation at 850 hPa is further studied by using observational data analyses. Comparative analyses of the composite wind fields at 850 hPa, contrasting the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) with the original circulation, show that the typhoon tracks are closely related to the wind pattern of the ISO but are not obviously related to the original wind fields. Case studies of two typhoons in 2006 also show that the low-frequency wind-field pattern, particularly the maximum-value line (belt) of low-frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850 hPa, is closely related to the typhoon track. Therefore, the lowfrequency circulation pattern and the maximum-value line (belt) of low- frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850hPa can be used to predict typhoon tracks over the northwestern Pacific.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program (No. G1999043803), Hi-Tetch Research and Development Program of China (No. 2001AA633060) and the grant of Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.L370221117).
文摘To study seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) in detail,Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and Extended Associate Pattern Analysis (EAPA) are jointly adopted with daily sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH)datasets covering 1126 days from American Navy Experimental Real-Time East Asian Seas Ocean Nowcast System in the present paper. Results show that the first and second REOFs of SST in the southern East China Sea(SECS) account for 50,8% and 39.8% of the total variance. The surface TWC contains persistent (multi-year mean), seasonal and intraseasonal components. The persistent one mainly inosculates with the Kuroshio but the seasonal and intraseasonal ones are usually active only on the continental shelf. Its persistent component is produced by inertial flow of the Kuroshio, however its seasonal and intraseasonal ones seems coming from seasonal and intraseasonal oscillations of monsoon force. The seasonal one reaches its maximum in late summer,lasting about four months and the intraseasonal one takes place at any seasons, lasting more than 40 days.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41420104002]the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province[grant numbers BK20150907 and 14KJA170002].
文摘This work investigates the boreal-summer intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB)during 1979–2016,based on daily Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data.The ISV of the summer monsoon rainfall over the LYRB is mainly dominated by the lower-frequency 12–20-day variability and the higher-frequency 8–12-day variability.The lower-frequency variability is found to be related to the northwestwardpropagating quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)over the western North Pacific spanning the South China Sea(SCS)and Philippine Sea,while the higher-frequency variability is related to the southeastward propagating midlatitude wave train(MLWT).Moreover,not each active QBWO(MLWT)in the SCS(East Asia)can generate ISV components of the precipitation anomaly over the LYRB.The QBWO can change the rainfall significantly with the modulation of mean state precipitation,while the quasi-11-day mode mainly depends on the intensity of the MLWT rather than the mean precipitation change.These findings should enrich our understanding of the ISV of the East Asian summer monsoon and improve its predictability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant numbers 41476025,41506036,41306031]NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers[grant number U1406404]+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project[grant number 2014M561883]Postdoctoral Innovation Foundation of Shandong Province[grant number 201403019]
文摘The gridded sea level anomaly(SLA) data-set provided by AVISO is used to track the propagation of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) region. The large root mean square of intraseasonal SLA along the Sumatra and Java coast is closely related to the propagation of intraseasonal Kelvin waves that derive from the equatorial Indian Ocean. These Kelvin waves are further found to propagate following different pathways at the Lombok Strait. Pathway A propagates eastward throughout the Sumba Strait and Savu Sea to reach the Ombai Strait. Pathway B penetrates into Lombok and propagates northward to reach the Makassar Strait. Pathway C propagates southeastward along the southwest coast of the Sumba Island. The equatorial Kelvin waves take around 15 days to travel from the equatorial Indian Ocean to Lombok Strait, and around 5 days to penetrate into the Makassar and Ombai straits. The Kelvin wave-induced SLA persists in the ITF region for an additional 5 days and then diminishes subsequently. The phase speeds of these intraseasonal Kelvin waves along Pathways A, B, and C are 1.91–2.86, 1.69, and 1.96 m s^-1,respectively—in agreement with the first two baroclinic modes of Kelvin waves.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41730964,41575079,and 41421004]
文摘Weak stratospheric polar vortex(WPV)events during winter months were investigated.WPV events were identified as being weakest in December,accompanied by the most dramatic increase in geopotential height over the polar region.After the onset of a December WPV event,the dynamic processes influencing Eurasian temperature can be split into two separate periods.Period I(lag of 0-25 days)is referred to as the stratosphere-troposphere interactions period,as it is mainly characterized by stratospheric signals propagating downwards.In Period I,a stratospheric negative Northern Annular Mode(NAM)pattern associated with the WPV propagates downwards,inducing a negative NAM in the troposphere.The anomalous low centers over the Mediterranean and North Pacific bring cold advection to northern Eurasia,resulting in a north-cold-south-warm dipole pattern over Eurasia.The zero line between negative and positive temperature anomalies moves southwards during days 5-20.Stratospheric cold anomalies at midlatitudes propagate downwards to high latitudes in the troposphere and contribute to the dipole structure.During PeriodⅡ(lag of 25-40 days),as downward signals from the stratosphere have vanished,the dynamic processes mainly take place within the troposphere.Specifically,a wave train is initiated from the North Atlantic region to northern Europe.The propagation of wave activity flux intensifies a cyclonic anomaly over northern Europe,which brings cold advection to Scandinavia and warm advection to central Asia.Therefore,a northwest-cold-southeast-warm dipole structure occupies Eurasia and migrates southeastwards during this period.
基金sponsored by the Joint Project of Natural Science Foundation of China and Yunnan Province (U0833602)
文摘This paper focuses on the impacts of convective momentum transport(CMT) on simulations of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TIO) in SAMIL. Two sets of experiments are performed, which give different reality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO). The Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme is used for all experiments. It is found that simulations of the TIO can be influenced by CMT, and the impacts on the simulated TIO depend on the model capability in simulating the MJO. CMT tends to have large influences to the model that can simulate the eastward propagation of the MJO. CMT can further influence the long-term mean of zonal wind and its vertical shear. Zonal wind suffers from easterlies biases at low level and westerlies biases at upper level when CMT is introduced. Such easterlies biases at low level reduce the reality of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation. When CMT is introduced in the model, MJO signals disappear but the model's mean state improves. Therefore, a more appropriate way is needed to introduce CMT to the model to balance the simulated mean state and TIO signals.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China grant number 2017YFA0603903the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant numbers 41622503 and 41775101。
文摘This study evaluates the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG,version 3(GAMIL3),in simulating the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO),based on the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)simulation.Results show that GAMIL3 reasonably captures the main features of the MJO,such as the eastward-propagating signal in the MJO frequency band,the symmetric and asymmetric structures of the MJO,several convectively coupled equatorial waves,and the MJO life cycle.However,GAMIL3 underestimates the MJO amplitude,especially for outgoing longwave radiation,as do most CMIP5 models,and simulates slow eastward propagation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41475052,41405058]China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2015M571095]Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010403]
文摘The performances of CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in simulating the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in El Nino decaying summers are examined in this study. Results show that most models can reproduce the spatial pattern of both climatological and anomalous circulation associated with the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers. Most CMIP5 AGCMs can capture the westward shift of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers compared with the climatological location. With respect to the sub-seasonal variation of the WNPSH, the performances of these AGCMs in reproducing the northward jump of the WNPSH are better than simulating the eastward retreat of the WNPSH from July to August. Twenty-one out of twenty-two (20 out of 22) models can reasonably reproduce the northward jump of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers (climatology), while only 7 out of 22 (8 out of 22) AGCMs can reasonably reproduce the eastward retreat of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers (climatology). In addition, there is a close connection between the climatological WNPSH location bias and that in El Nino decaying summers.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA05110200]the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China[grant number GYHY201406021]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575095,41175073,41575062,41520104008]
文摘A 30-year hindcast was performed using version 4.1 of the IAP AGCM(IAP AGCM4.1), and its potential predictability of the MJO was then evaluated. The results showed that the potential predictability of the MJO is 13 and 24 days, evaluated using the signal-to-error ratio method based on a single member and the ensemble mean, respectively. However, the MJO prediction skill is only9 and 10 days using the two methods mentioned above. It was further found that the potential predictability and prediction skill depend on the MJO amplitude in the initial conditions. Prediction initiated from conditions with a strong MJO amplitude tends to be more skillful. Together with the results of other measures, the current MJO prediction ability of IAP AGCM4.1 is around 10 days, which is much lower than other climate prediction systems. Furthermore, the smaller difference between the MJO predictability and prediction skill evaluated by a single member and the ensemble mean methods could be ascribed to the relatively smaller size of the ensemble member of the model.Therefore, considerable effort should be made to improve MJO prediction in IAP AGCM4.1 through application of a reasonable model initialization and ensemble forecast strategy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U0833602)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2007CB411805)
文摘The association of typhoon tracks over the western Pacific with the low-frequency wind-field pattern of atmospheric intraseasonal (30-60 days) oscillation at 850 hPa is further studied by using observational data analyses. Comparative analyses of the composite wind fields at 850 hPa, contrasting the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) with the original circulation, show that the typhoon tracks are closely related to the wind pattern of the ISO but are not obviously related to the original wind fields. Case studies of two typhoons in 2006 also show that the low-frequency wind-field pattern, particularly the maximum-value line (belt) of low-frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850 hPa, is closely related to the typhoon track. Therefore, the lowfrequency circulation pattern and the maximum-value line (belt) of low- frequency cyclonic vorticity at 850hPa can be used to predict typhoon tracks over the northwestern Pacific.