The quality of regional ocean reanalysis data for ＂the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean （AIPO）＂ has been assessed from the perspective of ENSO-related ocean signals. The results derived from the A...The quality of regional ocean reanalysis data for ＂the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean （AIPO）＂ has been assessed from the perspective of ENSO-related ocean signals. The results derived from the AIPO reanalysis, including SST, sea surface height （SSH）, and subsurface ocean temperature and currents, are compared with those of Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature （HadlSST） data set and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） reanalysis data. Both the spatial pattern and the characteristics of evolution of the ENSO-related ocean temperature anomalies are well reproduced by the AIPO reanalysis data. The physical processes proposed to explain the life cycle of ENSO, including the delayed oscillator mechanism, recharge-discharge mechanism, and the zonal advection feedback, are reasonably represented in this dataset. However, the westward Rossby wave signal in 1992 is not obvious in the AIPO data, and the magnitude of the heat content anomalies is different from that of the SODA data. The reason for the discrepancies may lie in the different mod- els and methods for data assimilation and differences in wind stress forcing. The results demonstrate the high reliability of the AIPO reanalysis data in describing ENSO signals, implying its potential application value in ENSO- related studies.展开更多
Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temp...Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-yeax return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.展开更多
A preliminarily assessment of the applicability of the sea surface pressure and wind speed of ERA5 reanalysis data is carried out using the observation data at 10 m height observation data of 9 buoys in the Bohai Sea ...A preliminarily assessment of the applicability of the sea surface pressure and wind speed of ERA5 reanalysis data is carried out using the observation data at 10 m height observation data of 9 buoys in the Bohai Sea and the Northern Huanghai Sea.The results show that:the sea surface pressure and wind speed of ERA5 reanalysis data has high correlation coefficients with the observation data,the correlation between sea surface pressure and wind speed is different in different time scales.The correlation of monthly average is better than that of daily average and daily extreme value,and the correlation coefficient is the lowest in extreme weather.In generally,the deviation between statistical products of the ERA5 and the observed products is negative.It means that the high pressure is weaker than the observed data,and the low pressure is stronger than the observed data,and there is some systematic deviation between ERA5 reanalysis data and the observed data.The deviation varies with the different wind speed level,when the wind is high,the reanalysis wind speed is generally less than the measured.By analyzing the monthly average data,the reanalysis data reveal the seasonal variation of sea surface pressure in the study area,and the deviation from the observed data also show seasonal variation characteristics,the applicability in winter is better than in summer.The error of reanalysis data of sea surface pressure and wind speed is large under extreme weather conditions,especially the typhoon process,further evaluation and revision of the data are needed.展开更多
The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal...The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.展开更多
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-04)the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean (Grant No. 201105019-3)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951904)
文摘The quality of regional ocean reanalysis data for ＂the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean （AIPO）＂ has been assessed from the perspective of ENSO-related ocean signals. The results derived from the AIPO reanalysis, including SST, sea surface height （SSH）, and subsurface ocean temperature and currents, are compared with those of Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature （HadlSST） data set and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） reanalysis data. Both the spatial pattern and the characteristics of evolution of the ENSO-related ocean temperature anomalies are well reproduced by the AIPO reanalysis data. The physical processes proposed to explain the life cycle of ENSO, including the delayed oscillator mechanism, recharge-discharge mechanism, and the zonal advection feedback, are reasonably represented in this dataset. However, the westward Rossby wave signal in 1992 is not obvious in the AIPO data, and the magnitude of the heat content anomalies is different from that of the SODA data. The reason for the discrepancies may lie in the different mod- els and methods for data assimilation and differences in wind stress forcing. The results demonstrate the high reliability of the AIPO reanalysis data in describing ENSO signals, implying its potential application value in ENSO- related studies.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950501-03)
文摘Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-yeax return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.
文摘A preliminarily assessment of the applicability of the sea surface pressure and wind speed of ERA5 reanalysis data is carried out using the observation data at 10 m height observation data of 9 buoys in the Bohai Sea and the Northern Huanghai Sea.The results show that:the sea surface pressure and wind speed of ERA5 reanalysis data has high correlation coefficients with the observation data,the correlation between sea surface pressure and wind speed is different in different time scales.The correlation of monthly average is better than that of daily average and daily extreme value,and the correlation coefficient is the lowest in extreme weather.In generally,the deviation between statistical products of the ERA5 and the observed products is negative.It means that the high pressure is weaker than the observed data,and the low pressure is stronger than the observed data,and there is some systematic deviation between ERA5 reanalysis data and the observed data.The deviation varies with the different wind speed level,when the wind is high,the reanalysis wind speed is generally less than the measured.By analyzing the monthly average data,the reanalysis data reveal the seasonal variation of sea surface pressure in the study area,and the deviation from the observed data also show seasonal variation characteristics,the applicability in winter is better than in summer.The error of reanalysis data of sea surface pressure and wind speed is large under extreme weather conditions,especially the typhoon process,further evaluation and revision of the data are needed.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB955401 and 2009CB421406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175072)
文摘The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.
